The Dangers of the Moment - Vox Popoli

 Even U.S. Senators are now publicly testifying to the existence of “an elite group of people” who are attempting to take “total control” by using global events like the pandemic through methods like the Covid vaccines:

MARIA BARTIROMO: It’s just extraordinary to me that, you know, the government was working with social media to amplify the lies and suppress truth, and has been doing so repeatedly. Why can’t the American people know that there were side effects to the vaccine?

SENATOR RON JOHNSON (R-WI): This is all pre-planned by an elite group of people. That’s what I’m talking about. Event 201 occurred in late 2019, prior to the rest of us knowing about this pandemic. This is very concerning in terms of what has happened, what is happening, what continues to be planned for our loss of freedom. Again, it needs to be exposed, but unfortunately, there are very few people, even in Congress, who are willing to take a look at this. They all pushed the vaccine. They don’t want to be made aware of the fact the vaccines might have caused injuries, might have caused deaths. So many people simply don’t want to admit they were wrong and they’re going to makes sure to do everything they can to ensure they’re not proven wrong.

We’re up against a very powerful group of people here, Maria. We need the truth to be exposed, we need more Americans to listen to the truth, to be exposed to the truth, to pull their heads out of the sand, quite honestly, to open up their eyes and understand what is happening to this country. We are going down a very dangerous path, but it is a path that is being laid out and planned by an elite group of people that want to take total control over our lives. And that’s what they’re doing, bit by bit. They do it by massively increasing government spending, increasing the size of government, these amendments that are coming up that are going to be voted on in 2024, the WHO, are frightening and they really risk taking away all of our sovereignty. People have to awaken to the dangers of the moment.

The evidence is not only out there, it is literally right in front of everyone. It’s not 1950 in America anymore and the Dark is literally rising. This isn’t a situation that one can hope to avoid by sitting on the fence or by averting one’s eyes.

DISCUSS ON SG

https://voxday.net/2023/11/26/the-dangers-of-the-moment/

Von Greyerz: The Financial System Has Reached The End | ZeroHedge

d by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window.

Again, remember von Mises words: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”

History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. 

So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth.

POLITICIANS LIE WITHOUT FAIL

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival. 

Let’s just look at Nixons ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies. 

Later on we will show how clearsighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy.  

So there we have tricky Dick’s lies. 

• The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.

• As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.

• And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window. 

The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated.

CHINA FORECAST THE CONSEQUENCES ALREADY IN 1971

So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below:

Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:

• Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system

• Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop

• Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis

I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history. 

How right the Chinese were. 

But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away.

Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes.

IRRELEVANT WHICH CURRENCY WINS THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM

As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies. 

The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness.  This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building. 

To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition.

So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world. 

But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies. 

Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms. 

Real terms means constant purchasing power. 

And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold.

So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD! 

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception. 

Voltaire said it already in 1729:

PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO

And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history. 

Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading. 

To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point. 

It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO.

But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today. 

BRENT JOHNSON & MATT PIEPENBURG DEBATE THE DOLLAR

So to debate whether the dollar index which today is 103, will reach 150 first as my good friend Brent Johnson argues in his Dollar Milk Shake Theory or that it will fall from here as my colleague Matt Piepenburg contends, really misses the point. 

There is no prize for coming first to the bottom. The dollar is down almost 99% in real terms since 1971. So it has a bit over 1% to fall to reach ZERO. 

And history tells us that the final fall is INEVITABLE. 

So why worry if the Dollar or the Euro becomes worthless first? It really is a mute point. 

Brent Johnson and Matt Piepenburg recently had a debate on Adam Taggart’s new platform “Thoughtful Money”. Adam is an outstanding host with great speakers and both Brent and Matt were superb in their presentation of the arguments for or against the dollar. But even though they both like and understand gold, they got a bit too caught up in the dollar up or down debate rather than focusing on the only money which has survived in history. Still, I know that they both appreciate that gold is the ultimate money. 

NOT ALL CURRENCIES ARE BAD

The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money. 

So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions. 

When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88! 

This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971.

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments. 

The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose. 

This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision. 

THE US BANANA REPUBLIC

Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed. 

As the graph below shows, US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%. 

132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money.  

So debt to GDP is now reaching the exponential phase. I have explained the final phases of exponential moves in many articles like here.

Since there is no intent or possibility to reduce the US deficit, the likely deficit for next fiscal year is most probably in excess of $2 trillion and that is before any bad news like higher inflation, higher interest rates, bank failures, more war, more QE etc. 

As I discussed in a recent article,“THE CYCLE OF EVIL”, the world is today facing unprecedented risks of a magnitude never before seen in history. 

THE TIME TO PRESERVE WEALTH IS NOW

The combination of geopolitical and financial risk makes wealth preservation an absolute necessity. 

Most asset markets look extremely vulnerable be it stocks bond or property. Few investors understand that current asset prices are in cloud cuckoo land as a result of an unprecedented credit expansion. 

Personally I think we are now at a point when asset markets could tank. 

At the same time gold looks ready to soon break out of its consolidation since 2020. 

Once gold leaves the $2,000 level behind, the move is likely to be fast. 

Silver will most probably move twice as fast as gold.

But this is not a question of price and speculation. No, it is all about risk and wealth preservation. 

So short term timing is irrelevant. The next few years will be about financial survival. 

Sadly most investors will buy the dips in conventional asset markets like stocks and lose most of their gains in the last few decades. 

As gold is insurance against a rotten financial system it must be acquired and owned outside a fragile banking system which is unlikely to survive in its present form. 

Here are a few of the SINE QUA NON (indispensable conditions) for gold ownership:

• Gold must be held in physical form. No funds, ETFs or bank held gold. 

• The investor must have direct access to his own gold bars/coins. 

• Any counterparty must be eliminated whenever possible. 

• Gold must be stored in ultra safe vaults outside the banking system. 

• Gold should not be stored in a major city.

• Gold must be insured.

• Only gold that you are prepared to lose should be stored at home. 

• Gold should be stored outside your country of residence and in a gold friendly jurisdiction.

• The country where the gold is stored must have a long history of democracy, political stability and peace.  

As we are approaching one of the most precarious times in history both financially, socially, politically and geopolitically, Wealth Preservation in the form of gold and some silver will make the difference between financial survival or ruin.

As always, most important in life is looking after family and helping friends.  

And remember that in the difficult times ahead there are many wonderful things that are free like nature, books, music, sports etc. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-financial-system-has-reached-end 

What Are the Saudis Really Preparing for? - Author: Tom Luongo

 

Call the roller of big cigars
and bid him whip in kitchen cups concupiscent curds…
… the only emperor is the emperor of ice cream
— Wallace Stevens

It was announced the other day that Saudi Arabia and China are opening a $7 billion local currency swap line.  It prompted the highest-trafficked tweet of mine ever. 

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Mark Wauck over at Meaning in History linked to it. Mark didn’t really elaborate my point so I posted a reply in his comment section.

They [the Neocons] most certainly are flying by the seat of their pants, Mark [his conclusion]. What is happening now is pure desperation as they try to figure out how to extend and pretend this war through the election cycle to maintain the possibility of the ages-old enmity versus Russia.

But the KSA flip is real. Swap lines are a precursor to intervention. My tweet was high concept but it goes like this:

1) Announce swap lines
2) Start taking real amounts of yuan for oil
3) This breaks the peg of the Riyal to the USD when oil is relatively strong, not in crisis mode
4) The substitution of the CNY for the USD is existential for the US who then attacks the KSA exchange rate, pulling money out of the country…
5) SANCTIONS ON KSA.
6) Expanded swaps to convert USD encumbered assets with Riyal assets, once USD are verboten in KSA.
7) China provides them, with loans repayable in CNY.

Moves that occurred 10 years ago are instructive of why we are where we are today and where we may be headed.

The announcement of the swap lines is likely a pre-announcement of an Economic Hitman-style attack on Saudi Arabia by the US.  It’s not really that difficult to foresee.  

For historical context, Russia was hit hard in 2014/15 by the collapse in oil prices. In retaliation for “stealing Crimea” an attack on oil prices was organized by President Obama and the gaggle of usual suspects to trash the oil price.

In June of 2014 oil closed at $112.36. And the price began dropping the first trading day of July 2014 and didn’t stop until the end of 2015.

Saudi Arabia helped that process by expanding production, thinking they would take Russia’s market share as the Russian ruble collapsed and Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were drained.

The key to the anticipated win was that Russian companies, mostly the big State Owned Enterprises like Gazprom and Rosneft, had a lot of dollar-denominated debt which was about to mature and needed rolling over.  So, the US sanctioned Russia such that companies like Gazprom couldn’t roll the debt over, because they couldn’t sell the bonds to US or European investors anymore.  The current bondholders had to be paid off… to the tune of north of $50 billion in Q4 of 2014, and another $50 billions in Q1 2015.  

This “rollover risk” would plague the Russian government’s finances for the next 18 months as the price of oil dropped relentlessly.

The Russian ruble dropped from the high 20’s/low 30’s versus the dollar rose to a high above 80 in late November, but it only happened after Putin personally ordered Bank of Russia President Elvira Nabiullina to let the ruble float. Before that there had been a soft peg to the US dollar in place, which was easy to maintain while oil was trading above $100 per barrel.

China stepped in at the height of the ruble’s collapse to give Russia a swap line between yuan and rubles. China paid off Gazprom’s debt.  Russia paid them back in yuan, which they were going to get freely because of these swap lines then and Power of Siberia in the future.

The US didn’t dare sanction China for this because of both the blowback onto our economy and would have been tantamount to declaring war.  It’s also why China didn’t get even threatened with sanctions after Russia “invaded” Ukraine last year.

That sweetheart deal for the gas now flowing to them through the Power of Siberia pipeline now makes a lot more sense. Personally I had misremembered it being signed in 2015, as a response to the crisis, but it was before the crisis even broke out.

That implies a few things: 1) the combination of of events of early 2014 prompted the formulation of a coordinated attack on oil prices aimed at Russia for later that year and 2) that Putin anticipated it and opened up negotiations with Xi Jinping to get Power of Siberia built quickly.

Nearly everything that’s happened since then is downstream of the events tracing back to early 2014

Russia survived that period of ‘rollover risk’ and in doing so created the blueprint for other countries to do the same.

Now, a tweet from Eric Yeung set all of what you are about to read spinning in my head immediately.

and my immediate response:

To which Eric replied:

So, to summarize before I go any further:

1. China is using their US Treasuries and US dollar surpluses to loan them to Emerging Market trade partners of significance to CHINA!
2. They are asking for yuan in repayment.
3. This stabilizes the yuan/usd exchange rates while China can and is rapidly expanding the money supply to deal with their sagging property markets as a result of the Fed’s aggressively tight monetary policy.
4. In order for China to expand the yuan into the new dollar vacuum without also losing their gold (Luke Gromen’s point during the conversation), they have to create a demand cycle for their debt, keeping borrowing costs low.
5. Since they have cross-currency swap lines with their SE Asian partners and offshore yuan settlement around the region, i.e. in places like Singapore, this is how they manage the expansion without creating a runaway inflation problem.
6. Yuan replace dollars without a massive shift in exchange rates and/or bond yields.

The 2014/15 ruble/rollover crisis was the test run for this. So, now. let’s go back to the beginning of the article.

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You have to see this stuff in hindsight now, but in this case I think the past is prologue for the future.

Et Tu, Riyal?

So, now, start thinking about what the US and Davos will do to the Saudis in a similar scenario.  The Saudis have been defiant of the US’s demands to go along with US foreign policy excursions like Ukraine and Gaza while simultaneously working in tandem with Russia to keep OPEC+ together in the face of the West’s full court press to what….? Bomb the price of oil.

What most folks do not understand is that the Saudis have a similar problem today (and have had for over a decade), that while their costs of pulling oil out of the ground are extremely low, the amount of money Saudi-Aramco has to pay to the government to cover the government budget balloons that price.

So, while their COGS are low, their EBITDA is also low, depending on the price.

This is why (see graph annotations above) when the Saudis (henceforth KSA) went along with President Trump to trash the price of oil by pumping more and lowering their price in 2018, the gambit ultimately failed.

Their budget deficit exploded and Russia, with a free floating ruble and a flexible oil tariff regime outlasted the attack on oil.

As a comparison, Russia’s COGS are a little higher than KSA but their EBITDA is far lower. In fact, below a certain price per barrel (~$40, but it changes), Russian oil majors pay no taxes. It is a system a lot like US income taxes, progressively higher rates at higher profit margins.

But the Russians have a floating ruble to fall back on. No matter what the income level, they are paid in rubles. If oil is weak, the ruble should be weak and internally the costs to Gazprom or Lukoil for labor, SG&A, etc. is the same as if oil is high.

The US keeps attacking the ruble thinking it will bankrupt Russia but it won’t. Certainly now that they hold zero dollar-denominated debt and zero US treasuries as foreign exchange reserves. Attacking the ruble now is just petulance.

The KSA, on the other hand, as a riyal pegged tightly to the US dollar. Their COGS, EBITDA, everything may as well be in dollars, including labor costs, government subsidy costs, etc.

The solution, of course, is to break the peg of the riyal to the dollar.

Et voila, instant budget balancing at lower oil prices, just add foreign buyers offering not dollars.

Every year Thanksgiving week here in the US is marked by some kind of volatility in oil prices because OPEC+ holds their winter meeting this week every year. Thanksgiving week is a great time to screw with markets because the US is really distracted by holiday travel and logistics.

So, the other day infighting within OPEC+ by African nations including the dutiful Davos-controlled nation of Nigeria postponed the meeting and was met with a washout in oil prices.

The Saudis need/want a put under the oil price of $80 per barrel.  They need that to maintain their budget (see above).

China offers the Saudis a swap line to ensure breaking the peg goes smoothly. In other words, China will loan the Kingdom dollars to be repaid in yuan, just like they did for Russia and are currently doing today for their Southeast Asian trading partners trying to defend their currencies against the Dollar’s milkshake suction.  

If we look back to history with Russia and Power of Siberia guaranteeing a big flow of yuan and rubles between Russia and China, might we see something that would grease the skids of riyal/yuan flow?

As the kids on the Twitterz like to say, “kek.”

This OPEC+ meeting meant that a whole lotta schmoozing by Davos through the Biden administration to break the cartel and let the price of oil drop is happening. It’ll be the same tired ploy as what they pulled with a willing KSA in 2014 and Trump worked them over for in 2018:

“We’re taking oil lower. Everyone else will suffer unless you pump like mad to us and we’ll reward you with increased market share in the US. After we let the price rise, you’ll be the new king.” 

In the end all 2018’s attack did was finally get Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to realize that the US is an unreliable and vindictive partner. He hitched the KSA’s and OPEC’s future on Putin and the Russians. He’s been rewarded for that choice to date.

The Saudis are preparing for an attack on the oil price to punish them for their lack of vision by the Neocons who never learn anything from their past failures.

Guess what? If Nigeria, Angola and Congo are hearing the sweet nothings of the West today I’d say they about to get rolled by Russia and China, but this time they will be joined by MbS and the Saudis, who are getting ready for the inevitable.

https://tomluongo.me/2023/11/24/what-are-the-saudis-really-preparing-for/

1.1 Million Dead - Vox Popoli

 A Ukrainian news channel accidentally releases the Kiev regime’s official list of KIA/MIA:

The Ukrainian TV Channel 1+1 accidentally did put out the real number of Ukrainian fatalities suffered in the NATO-Russian War. So, here it is:

1, 126,652 KIAs and MIAs for VSU. Somebody will have to answer for this atrocity and the main puppet masters sit in Washington and London and their names will be named at the Ukraine War Crimes Tribunal. Many will also be charged with crimes in absentia. In related news–this number is larger than US losses in all XIX, XX and XXI centuries wars combined. They are beyond comprehension of any US military, let alone political, figure.

The office of a 404 “president” reacted immediately and forced 1+1 to retract the story, but it is too late.

It’s not too surprising that the news of the utter defeat of the Ukrainian military is being leaked out to the ignorant global public. The USA is pulling the plug on its proxy war now that it has a higher priority in the Middle East, the European economies are teetering on the edge of collapse going into another energy-expensive winter, and the neoclowns have finally realized that China poses the much more dangerous threat to Clown World going forward than Russia.

Except in that it represents a step toward the world’s eventual acceptance of Russia’s victory over NATO, the slaughter of five percent of the male Ukrainian population isn’t something to celebrate. It is an abomination and an object lesson in the intrinsic danger of a nation permitting itself to be ruled over by foreigners and thereby sacrificed to interests that are not their own.

The staggering death toll should also provide a sobering lesson to the Boomers and others who still believe in the myth of American military supremacy, as it represents more soldiers than are presently on active duty in the US Army, Navy, and Marine Corps combined.

DISCUSS ON SG

https://voxday.net/2023/11/27/1-1-million-dead/

We Are the Whitepills - Vox Popoli

 The Kurgan explains why it behooves those of us whose eyes are open to the material reality of spiritual evil, to be relentlessly, ruthlessly, and intentionally positive in our daily relations with those around us:

Given the level of evil that exists, you will not, and cannot, ever:

1. Act as if you don’t know. Turn a blind eye to it. Pretend all is well when it isn’t. Or ever participate in anything that furthers, promotes, or somehow encourages that evil, no matter the cost, and,
2. And this is the most important part; you cannot EVER, live in despair, defeat, nihilism, depression, feeling overwhelmed, let the weight of the evil drag you down and make you miserable and thus also make life miserable for those around you, letting them perceive your mental, spiritual, physical, general oppression as a weight that crushes them too. You need to CONSCIOUSLY, CHOOSE, listen to me, CHOOSE, with your own free will, CHOOSE, to be a light of inspiration, hope, power, freedom, happiness, faith and love.

This is why I do not permit blackpillers, MGTOW, doomsayers, jeremiadites, fearmongerers, or concerned citizens any voice in our community. Even if their fears are genuine, they may as well be dancing on the strings of the evil puppetmasters, because they speak the words of the wicked under a cloak of concern.

Fear should never be confused with wisdom or common sense. Good decisions are seldom, if ever, motivated by fear. Fear reliably leads to paralysis, inaction, and eventual defeat.

Speak the truth. And do not be afraid.

DISCUSS ON SG

https://voxday.net/2023/11/26/we-are-the-whitepills/