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§ "The biggest migration movements are still ahead: Africa's
population will double in the next decades. A country like Egypt will grow to
100 million people, Nigeria to 400 million. In our digital age with the
internet and mobile phones, everyone knows about our prosperity and
lifestyle." — German Development Minister Gerd Müller.
§ "Young people all have cellphones and they can see what's
happening in other parts of the world, and that acts as a magnet." —
Michael Møller, Director of the United Nations office in Geneva.
§ "If we do not manage to solve the central problems in African
countries, ten, 20 or even 30 million immigrants will arrive in the European
Union within the next ten years." — Antonio Tajani, President of the
European Parliament.
Spain is on track to overtake Greece as the second-biggest gateway
for migrants entering Europe by sea. The sudden surge in migration to Spain
comes amid a crackdown on human smuggling along the Libya-Italy sea route,
currently the main migrant point of entry to Europe.
The westward shift in migration routes from Greece and Italy
implies that Spain, situated only ten miles from Africa by sea, may soon find
itself at the center of Europe's migration crisis.
More than 8,300 illegal migrants have reached Spanish shores
during the first seven months of 2017 — three times as many as in all of
2016, according to the International
Organization for Migration (IOM).
Thousands more migrants have entered Spain by land, primarily at
the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on the north coast of Morocco, the
European Union's only land borders with Africa. Once there, migrants are housed
in temporary shelters and then moved to the Spanish mainland, from where many
continue on to other parts of Europe.
In all, some 12,000 migrants have arrived in Spain so far this year, compared to 13,246
for all of 2016. By comparison, 14,156 migrants have arrived in Greece so far
in 2017.
Italy remains the main migrant gateway to Europe, with around
97,000 arrivals so far this year, compared to 181,436 for all of 2016. Italy
has been the main point of entry to Europe since the EU-Turkey migrant deal, signed in
March 2016, shut off the route from Turkey to Greece, at one time the preferred
point of entry to Europe for migrants from Asia and the Middle East. Almost
600,000 migrants have arrived in Italy during the past four years.
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In May, Italy signed a deal with
Libya, Chad and Niger to stem the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean
through improved border controls. In July, Italy also reached a deal with
France and Germany to tighten the regulation of charities operating boats in
the Mediterranean and to increase funds to the Libyan coast guard.
Since then, the Libyan coast guard has prevented thousands of
migrants from leaving the Libyan coast for Italy. The crackdown, however, has
sent would-be migrants scrambling for an alternative route to cross the Mediterranean.
This appears to explain the increase in migrants arriving in Spain.
On August 14, Frontex, the European Union's border agency, reported that the
number of African migrants arriving in Italy from Libya had dropped by more
than half in July compared to the month before. During this period, the number
of migrants arriving in Spain rose sharply.
Frontex said that 10,160
migrants had arrived in Italy by sea in July — 57% fewer than in June and the
lowest level of arrivals for a July since 2014. According to Frontex, 2,300
migrants made it to Spain in July, more than four times as many as the year
before. Most of the migrants arriving in Italy and Spain are believed to be
economic migrants seeking a better life in Europe, not refugees fleeing war
zones.
"The vast majority of migrants crossing to Italy from Libya
come from Senegal, Gambia, Guinea and other west African countries," said Joel Millman,
an IOM spokesman, in an interview with the Financial Times.
"Given the crackdown on migration from Libya, it seems natural that many
would forsake the dangerous dessert [sic] crossing to Libya and choose to cross
from Morocco."
Julio Andrade, a city councilor in Málaga, a port city in southern
Spain, called it "the balloon effect." In an interview with the Irish
Times, he said: "If you
squeeze one area, the air goes elsewhere. If there is a lot of police pressure
and arrests of mafias around the Mediterranean routes via Greece and Italy, for
example, then the mafias will look for other routes."
Spanish authorities have reported that there is a surge in African
migrants attempting to cross the land border at Ceuta by scaling fences that
are up to six meters (20 feet) tall and topped by razor wire. Spanish Interior
Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido said there were
2,266 attempts to jump the perimeter at Ceuta during the first seven months of
2017, compared to a total of 3,472 attempts in all of 2016.
On August 7, more than 300 mostly sub-Saharan Africans ambushed
Spanish and Moroccan security forces and stormed the border
crossing at El Tarajal; 186 migrants made it onto Spanish territory. On August
8, more than a thousand migrants armed with spears and rocks attempted to breach the same
crossing. On August 9, Spanish authorities closed the border for a week. On
August 10, around 700 migrants stormedthe border; 200
migrants were arrested.
Meanwhile, on August 9, a video showed a rubber
boat carrying dozens of migrants arrive at a beach full of sunbathers in Cádiz.
José Maraver, the head of a rescue center in nearby Tarifa, told the Telegraph that
a second boat had landed on another beach in the area and that this scene was
now a regular occurrence. "Every day there are boats, every day there is
migration," he said. "The situation is getting very
complicated."
Migrants are also using other means to reach Spain. On August 6,
for example, four Moroccans reached the coast
of Málaga on jet skis. During July and August, police intercepted at least two
dozen migrants using jet skis to cross over to Spain. On August 10, police
using motion detectors and thermal imaging sensors found56 migrants,
including 14 children, hiding inside trucks en route from Ceuta to the mainland
ferry port in Algeciras.
In an August 9 editorial, Spain's El País newspaper said that it was
"obvious that migratory pressure has moved to the western Mediterranean
and there is no indication that this situation will change in the near
future." It added:
"The migratory pressure Spain has experienced during the past
several weeks is an increase of such dimensions that it exceeds all measures of
surveillance and control. The massive entry of sub-Saharan people across the
border of Ceuta, whether by jumping the fence or crossing the El Tarajal
border, reveals the enormous difficulties in stopping the entry of those
fleeing war, famine or economic hardship....
"The management of migratory flows requires a strong European
policy and sufficient economic resources. Spain cannot stand alone as the
guardian of southern Europe."
German Development Minister Gerd Müller recently warned that Europe
must prepare for the arrival of millions more migrants from Africa:
"The biggest migration movements are still ahead: Africa's
population will double in the next decades. A country like Egypt will grow to
100 million people, Nigeria to 400 million. In our digital age with the
internet and mobile phones, everyone knows about our prosperity and
lifestyle."
The director of the United Nations Office in Geneva, Michael
Møller, has echoed those
concerns:
"What we have been seeing is one of the biggest human
migrations in history. And it's just going to accelerate. Young people all have
cellphones and they can see what's happening in other parts of the world, and
that acts as a magnet."
The President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, said that in order
to staunch the flow of migrants from Africa, the European Union would need to
invest billions and develop a long-term strategy to stabilize the continent:
"If we do not manage to solve the central problems in African countries,
ten, 20 or even 30 million immigrants will arrive in the European Union within
the next ten years."
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at
the New York-based Gatestone Institute.