American
self-proclaimed hegemony is over where it really matters for any real and
perceived hegemon—the military field. It was over for some time now, it just
took Putin’s speech to demonstrate the good old Al Capone truism that one can
get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone.
Vladimir
Putin gave a speech on March 1. During the
speech he announced several new weapon systems. He offers that these
systems have been developed due to the unilateral withdrawal in 2002 by the
United States from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty – despite Russian attempts
to dissuade the US government from this decision.
NB:
I am no expert on such matters; after offering several excerpts from Putin’s
speech I will leave it to the aforementioned Mr. Martyanov to comment.
Russia’s
concern? Anti-ballistic missiles reduce the check that
mutually-assured-destruction placed on the use of nuclear weapons. Putin
suggests that the Russians have attempted several times in the intervening
years to re-engage on this matter; in the meantime, the United States has
installed anti-ballistic missiles in several locations surrounding
Russia. Given these actions, Russia has not stood still:
During
all these years since the unilateral US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, we have
been working intensively on advanced equipment and arms, which allowed us to
make a breakthrough in developing new models of strategic weapons.
These
new weapons are designed to circumvent the anti-ballistic-missile defense
systems of the United States. I cannot say which, if any, of these
systems can perform as claimed. However, I am hard-pressed to recall
meaningful bluffs on serious issues by Putin in the past. In any case,
only one or two of these announced systems need to be feasible in order for
this to be significant.
First
up is the Sarmat:
Weighing
over 200 tonnes, it has a short boost phase, which makes it more difficult to
intercept for missile defence systems….Sarmat will be equipped with a
broad range of powerful nuclear warheads, including hypersonic, and the most
modern means of evading missile defence.
Putin
suggests that there are no range limitations on this new missile; more
importantly, it can attack from either the North or South Pole.
Moving
on, Putin describes the next breakthrough – an energy source:
One
of them is a small-scale heavy-duty nuclear energy unit that can be installed
in a missile like our latest X-101 air-launched missile or the American Tomahawk
missile – a similar type but with a range dozens of times longer, dozens,
basically an unlimited range. It is a low-flying stealth missile carrying a
nuclear warhead, with almost an unlimited range, unpredictable trajectory and
ability to bypass interception boundaries.
Missile
launch tests and ground tests have been successful. After showing a
video…
You
can see how the missile bypasses interceptors. As the range is unlimited, the
missile can manoeuvre for as long as necessary.
Moving
under the sea:
…we
have developed unmanned submersible vehicles that can move at great depths (I
would say extreme depths) intercontinentally, at a speed multiple times higher
than the speed of submarines, cutting-edge torpedoes and all kinds of surface
vessels, including some of the fastest.
These
can carry conventional or nuclear warheads.
Next
is a hypersonic weapon:
The
missile flying at a hypersonic speed, 10 times faster than the speed of sound,
can also manoeuvre at all phases of its flight trajectory, which also allows it
to overcome all existing and, I think, prospective anti-aircraft and
anti-missile defence systems, delivering nuclear and conventional warheads in a
range of over 2,000 kilometres. We called this system Kinzhal
(Dagger).
Finally:
A
real technological breakthrough is the development of a strategic missile
system with fundamentally new combat equipment – a gliding wing unit, which has
also been successfully tested.
In
addition to speeds in excess of Mach 20…
…the
missile’s gliding cruise bloc engages in intensive manoeuvring – both lateral
(by several thousand km) and vertical. This is what makes it absolutely
invulnerable to any air or missile defence system.
Summarizing
the situation:
I
hope that everything that was said today would make any potential aggressor
think twice…
We
are not threatening anyone, not going to attack anyone or take away anything
from anyone with the threat of weapons. We do not need anything.
And
then the red line:
Any
use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium
or any range at all, will be considered as a nuclear attack on this country.
Retaliation will be immediate, with all the attendant consequences.
And
the carrot:
There
is no need to create more threats to the world. Instead, let us sit down at the
negotiating table and devise together a new and relevant system of
international security and sustainable development for human civilisation. We
have been saying this all along.
You
know, the United States and Soviet Union talked about such things in the past….
So…what
of these new systems? For this I turn to Andrei Martyanov; let’s just say that he takes
this seriously – and offers a wonderfully descriptive analogy:
…
[Putin] proceeded with what can only be described as a military-technological
Pearl-Harbor meets Stalingrad. The strategic ramifications of the latest weapon
systems Putin presented are immense.
The
Sarmat has been known of for years; the Mach 20+ hypersonic glider
weapon system is already in series production; regarding the Kinzhal:
A
salvo of 5-6 such missiles guarantees the destruction of any Carrier Battle
Group or any other surface group, for that matter–all this without use of
nuclear munitions.
So
much for carrier battle groups setting sail for locales unfavorable to Russia
and its allies. Such will be limited to Mexico and Argentina, I guess.
Given
that it takes 25 years to fail on a program like the F-35 fighter, it seems
unlikely that a meaningful response will come from the American side and its
dysfunctional defense industry anytime soon:
It
is prudent to predict today, against the background of an American approach to
war that there will be no sensible technological American response to Russia in
the foreseeable future.
Conclusion
…Russia
brought the gun to a knife fight and it seems that this is the only way to deal
with the United States today.
Maybe
it’s time to talk.