The first time I did any serious reading of the Roman Empire,
the thought that was always with me was why they never thought to downsize. The
cost of conquering Gaul was relatively low, so it made sense to do it, but the
cost of hanging onto it never seemed to make sense. The same was even more
obvious with Britania. By the third century, it should have been obvious, at
least from our perspective, that the Empire needed to be downsized and
re-organized. Yet, that was never a part of the logic of the Empire.
I had a similar thought when reading about the Thirty Years War
the first time. The Habsburgs were exhausting themselves trying to preserve
something that was probably not worth the effort. Of course, we look at these
things in hindsight and from a modern perspective. It seems silly to care about
the local religious practices, but important people did care about these things
and still do. Still, when I read about the rise and fall of empires, I end up
thinking through the alternatives, wondering why they were never considered.
The answer is probably the simplest one. People, even the
shrewdest rulers, live and plan within their allotted time on earth. Even the
Chinese, who take the very long view of things, act in the moment most of the
time. People can think about how their actions will impact their descendants a
century from now, but it will never have the same emotional tug as how their
contemporaries think of them in the moment. That’s just human nature. Most men
will trade the applause of today for being remembered long after he is dead.
That’s probably what we are seeing with the current struggles of
Western elites to keep this house of cards together. The “liberal international
order” is the perfection of a solution to problems of the long gone
past. From the French Revolution through the Cold War, the great challenge in
the West was over borders, economics and conflict resolution. After a long
bloody series of experiments, the West finally figured out something that
worked to keep the peace, maximize material wealth and settle disputes in an
orderly fashion.
The trouble is, the current arrangements are not answering the
questions of this age. In fact, they appear to be exacerbating the problems
that face the West. Angela Merkel’s decision to invite in a million Muslim
warriors made her the hero of her contemporaries, but it guaranteed that
generations of Germans will be engaged in a long twilight struggle to save
themselves and their people from the terror of contemporary Islam. A generation
from now Merkel will be remembered in the same way people
remember Chamberlain.
Of course, when we talk of the West we are really talking about
the American Empire that arose following World War II. Washington has its
tentacles in every nook and cranny of the world. The United States has
active duty military troops stationed in nearly 150 countries. The cost of this
is close to a trillion per year, not counting the unknown sums that are not in
the budget. If the American ruling class decides it is time to downsize the
empire, then the liberal international order is finished. The Pax Americana
ends.
That’s probably why the American ruling class puts so much
effort into maintaining this empire. Assuming it is true that the top 5% of
Americans pay 60% of taxes, the cost of empire is mostly paid by rich people.
Rich people like peace and stability, so fear of the alternative keeps them
invested in a system that no longer makes any sense. The internal contradictions
of this empire may even be known to the people in charge, but the way out of it
is not clear, so they stick with what has worked for generations, no matter the
cost.
Inertia plays a part in these things too. To abandon what
their ancestors built would seem like failure, so our rulers keep throwing good
money after bad in places like Afghanistan and Mesopotamia. If there is a
reason to be involved in the Syrian civil war, not one has said it, but there
we are anyway. If Putin wants to set himself up as a modern day Tsar, what’s it
matter to us? We have an army of specially trained Russia experts, and of
course the hoof beats, so our rulers keep pretending Putin is a super villain.
The truly weird thing about the American Empire is it started as
a homogeneous nation, composed of English speaking white people. The Romans
bankrupted themselves trying to keep the barbarians out, while going to great
lengths to integrate those that came in through conquest and migration. America
is bankrupting itself trying to import barbarians from every corner of the
globe, while going to great lengths to police the fringes of civilization. The
point is to keep the current arrangements in place, no matter how illogical.
Again, it is an error to assume the people in charge are
thinking this stuff through. Lots of smart people were bamboozled into thinking
China would get rich and become a modern western style democracy. Sure, the
people who talked those smart people into this foolishness were in it just for
a quick buck, but that just proves the point. The people in charge of the West
are not thinking too far past next week. They do what seems to work today, what
brings them applause or a quick profit, no matter the long term cost.
That’s
probably the best way to think of the logic of empire. No one lives in the long
term, because as Keynes said, in the long run we’re all dead. Ultimately,
relative to the march of history, everyone in charge at all times and all
places has a high time preference. The people in charge are just getting what
they can from the current arrangements. It’s why they instinctively defend the
system. It’s what provides them with the lifestyle they believe they deserve.
That and it is all they know. Men of the empire are not risk takers.