Armenia is an important part
Russia’s long-term plans. A member of the Eurasian Economic Union Armenia
is key to protecting Russia’s southern flank.
So,
I was not shocked back in 2016 when the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh was
activated by the U.S. after a brief visit by then Secretary
of State John Kerry as punishment for Russia’s intervention
into Syria.
Nagorno-Karabakh had been
peaceful for more than twenty years before Kerry’s visit. And within
days, fighting broke out on the Azeri side of the region which lies between the
two countries.
So, color me not shocked that
as the Neoconservatives take control of the Trump White House that they
activate a color revolution in Armenia while simultaneously pushing Russia in
Ukraine, Syria, the U.K., the financial markets and seemingly everywhere else
at the same time.
The story at Zerohedge this
morning gives us the political picture, former president Serzh Sargsyan, was
elected as Prime Minister creating the facade of a transfer of power.
This sparked protests which grew to a point where Sargsyan had to resign.
Color Revolutions created by western
NGOs stoke mild opposition to a sitting government and turns it into a lynch
mob by escalating the violence in the streets.
Why would Armenians now begin
trashing Turkish stores in Aleppo (that’s right in Syria) over an internal
Armenian political matter?
Because it’ll give Turkish
President Erdogan an excuse to finish the Armenian genocide (which Erdogan and
Israel refuse to acknowledge happened) his predecessors started a hundred years
ago.
And the hope is that this
provocation will drive a wedge between Turkey and Russia at a time when
everyone’s nerves are frayed to the point of breaking.
Turkey announces over the
weekend it is repatriating all of its gold from the Federal
Reserve vaults in New York.
Iran announces it no longer
accepts dollars in its business dealings and switches to the
euro for international trade, in preparation for Trump decertifying the JCPOA
and re-establishing sanctions from 2012 which includes SWIFT expulsion again.
If Armenia’s government falls
here there will be an immediate push to get them into NATO and create an absolute
nightmare in the region.
So, that puts everyone in a
bind because Russia has to continue backing the existing government which it
shares a very strategic military integration with. Remember, Armenia is a
member of the CSTO and has a joint military command agreement with Moscow.
So,
this coup attempt at this point in time is quite a cynical and inflammatory
move in the wake of Azeri elections which sees Russian-Azeri relations continue
improving. The latest being a commitment to triple Azeri exports to
Russia over the next few years.
Russia has skillfully managed
its relationship with both countries under Putin with Armenia obviously the
more important of the two strategically since it protects Russia’s southern
flank.
And a stable Armenia means a
much slower flow of ‘terrorists’ coming into Russia.
The goal of Syria, among other
things, is the creation of a failed state and terrorist stronghold to
destabilize the region, including Iraq, Iran and Turkey, but with the ultimate
goal of bleeding Russia white over time.
And as each domino falls, the
harder it is for Russia to defend its positions in the former Soviet
republics. This is why Putin has been so focused on developing stronger defense
and economic ties with these countries. He’s been skillful in his
diplomacy with Ukbezistan, for example, after the death of its long-time leader
Karimov in September of 2016.
The same can be said for how he
and Iranian President Rouhani have handled relations with Azerbaijan, despite
the open wound of Nagorno-Karabakh.
So, as things ratchet up in
Armenia, the question over the next few days will be whether the removal of
long-time Russian ally Sargsyan from Armenia politics will be enough to
dissipate the current anger.
I don’t know but I do know that
this situation will be escalated a la the Maidan in Kiev if it begins to flag
in intensity.