Justin’s
note: Yesterday, Doug Casey
and I talked about the decline of nation states. Today, we continue our
discussion… and look at what could ultimately replace them…
Justin: Will
politicians allow this to happen? Or will they use the next crisis as an
opportunity to seize more power and wealth from everyday people?
Doug: There’s
no question about that. The prime directive of every living entity—including
governments—is to survive. They’ll try to do so at any cost. They’re like giant
dinosaurs in their death throes, thrashing around wildly. They’re very
dangerous. You’re going to have to be a very smart little mammal that hides in
a hole to not get crushed by them.
The best template
for how this is probably going to evolve was laid out in Neal Stephenson’s
book, The Diamond Age. In that book, which is a work of genius,
Stephenson explains how the world is likely to reorient itself. He expects most
nation states will dry up and blow away.
Sure,
some will still exist, but most will be replaced by what he calls “phyles.”
These are support groups based on whatever you value most. These phyles will
provide services like defense and insurance. So, they’ll offer all the benefits
that nation states offer today but they’ll necessarily do a much better job,
because they’re private, voluntary, and cohesive.
More and
more people will discover who their real countrymen are. You’ll find out who
you really want to associate and ally yourself with. And it won’t be people who
just so happened to have been born in the same area as them, many of whom you
have nothing in common with except proximity or government ID. Some may even be
enemies or parasites…
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Justin: And he
thinks these phyles will replace governments completely?
Doug: There
will still be governments that control certain geographical areas. After all,
governments have lots of force. And most people are like chimpanzees; they
crave, or at least accept, leadership by the biggest and most aggressive
monkey. But I expect many will eventually be replaced by phyles. This will be
technology driven.
And with
migration unfolding the way it is, Africa is going to have hundreds of millions
of Han Chinese changing the situation on that continent. They’re basically
going to take over that continent. At the same time, scores of millions of
African migrants will take over Europe.
Those are
two big trends that I feel certain about. Who knows what other side shows will
happen? But the nation state in its present form is a dead duck. And good
riddance to it.
Justin: I find
the concept of phyles fascinating. But can you help me better understand how
they’d work? How big would they be? Would they span across countries and continents?
Doug: Well,
again, people naturally fall into groups of the like-minded, joined by the
things that are most important to them. They could be their philosophy, their
religion, or their occupation. In prisons, for instance, it’s race. Inmates
self-segregate. The concept is a perversion of the phyle concept, in a way. But
to many people race is the most important thing in their lives.
Every
individual has several, or a dozen, or perhaps a score of things that are
important to them. In my case, my friends are people who share my worldview.
They believe in maximum social and economic freedom. Those are good qualifiers.
I also prefer—I’m quite exclusionary, actually, no “diversity”—people who are
honest and competent. And I tend to associate with people of the same economic
status because I frankly find that poor people mostly don’t usually bring much
to the party.
Justin: Why do
you say that?
Doug: Poor
people are usually poor for a reason. They have bad habits. I know all the
excuses and sob stories, and some of them are even true. But I don’t want to
associate with people who have bad habits, whether they’re rich or poor.
I can
probably put my finger on about 25 or 30 people in the world that I’d want
standing next to me when it’s time to fix bayonets. But that doesn’t,
incidentally, include the average guy that lives in Aspen, Colorado, which is
where I spend the northern summer. For that matter, it doesn’t apply to the
average guy anywhere. In today’s world, “average” doesn’t cut it.
In most
cases people maintain an acceptable social veneer. But they’re not reliable or
trustworthy enough to be part of a phyle that I’d join.
There
will end up being thousands of phyles, everything from the Hell’s Angels to the
Rotary Club. And that’s a good thing. It’s much better than just dealing with
the people who happen to live in your area.
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Justin: How long
could it be before nation states start going up in smoke? It seems like this is
already happening in Europe where many countries appear eager to break off from
the European Union (EU).
Doug: No
question about that. The EU is a complete dog’s breakfast, and has become
totally counterproductive. One thing that you can plan your life around is that
the EU will break up, dry up, and blow away. It’s completely dysfunctional. It
makes absolutely no sense to have 50,000 bureaucrats, useless mouths, in Brussels
making everybody’s life miserable.
The EU
started out as a free trade zone for iron and coal. Good, but unnecessary. And
then it metastasized. The idea of a political group managing free trade is a
contradiction, idiotic actually. You only need each individual government to
drop its barriers, duties, and quotas—unilaterally. The US, and any other
country, should have zero of these things, for its own benefit. Otherwise it’s
like putting yourself under embargo.
Free
trade is wonderful and natural. But having the EU or NAFTA facilitate trade is
ridiculous and counter functional. The same goes for the United Nations, which
is nothing but a corrupt club for bureaucrats. It serves no purpose, and should
be abolished. It’s just a drain on the world economy, the EU on steroids.
One of
the nice things about the Greater Depression, which we entered upon in 2007, is
that these governments will become unaffordable. The United States will soon
find out that its giant military/industrial/security complex is not only
bankrupting the country, but putting it in serious danger. It doesn’t “defend”
the US, but draws attacks and creates enemies. And it certainly doesn’t defend
freedom, rather the opposite.
All their
domestic welfare programs are not only unaffordable but—even if they were
free—are actively destructive. They’ll fall apart during the coming time of
economic stress. And that’s a good thing, although the period of change will
certainly be inconvenient and unpleasant for many people.
What
scares me is that people will act like chimpanzees during this chaos. They’ll
be afraid. And they’ll want somebody to protect them. But that, of course, is
asking for real trouble.
Leaders
that promise the most freebies, and the most safety, usually end up being
someone like Stalin, Hitler, or Mao. That will happen in the States, too. We’re
no longer the country we once were not so long ago.
I mean, a
lot of people hate Trump. I don’t have any particular animosity toward him.
Sure, he’s done some pretty stupid things; his foreign policy of late borders
on the criminally insane. But at least the Deep State—which really exists,
should any naïfs have any doubt—hates him. And that shows he’s doing a few
things right…
But what
really scares me is the next president, because that person will be elected in
the middle of a gigantic crisis. And I’m afraid that Americans will pick
someone very, very dangerous.
Justin: What will
happen to public services when nation states get wiped out? Will phyles provide
things like defense and education? Who will be responsible for public
infrastructure like roads and bridges?
Doug: Well,
there’s absolutely nothing that the government does that entrepreneurs couldn’t
do better and cheaper.
The only
justification for the State is its pure coercive power. People seem to think
it’s necessary to have an organization with massive coercive power on top of
society. That’s the essence of the state. It’s supposed to protect you from
force initiated by other people. The army is there to protect you from people
outside your geographical area. The police are there to protect you from
criminals within your geographical area. And a court system that allows you to
adjudicate disputes without resorting to force.
That’s
what governments are supposed to do, at least in theory. I could live with a
government that did that, and only that. But many governments, including the
U.S. government, do these jobs incompetently, and at inordinate cost. Worse,
they try to do absolutely everything else.
In fact, I
don’t believe the State should do anything. It’s innately dangerous,
incompetent, and always draws the worst kind of people.
It
certainly shouldn’t be in charge of education. That’s the responsibility of
parents. Education is the last thing that should be handed over to the State,
if only because the public schools always tend to indoctrinate kids rather than
educate them. Public schools also take responsibility away from parents. That
makes them irresponsible, which is disastrous.
What
else? Welfare? Before the Roosevelt regime, Americans used to provide charity
on a one-to-one basis. You found somebody who was worthy of help and you helped
them. Or you joined something like the Rotary, Optimists, Lions, Knights of
Columbus, or what-have-you. There used to be 1,000 organizations like that.
Their business was to help people who deserved help.
But all
these organizations have been minimized because of the huge amounts of capital
the State draws out of society. The State has replaced them. In the process the
State has cemented the proles to the bottom of the barrel with their
institutionalized programs.
And this
is true of absolutely everything and everywhere the government sticks its
tentacles.
Justin: Thanks
for speaking with me today, Doug.
Doug: You’re
welcome.