Writing in the Asia Times earlier this month, David P.
Goldman lamented that an Israel-Iran war is
unlikely to take place any time soon. His observation appears surprising
considering the mainstream media has
been hyping up the idea of such a war over the past few months.
Nevertheless, he is correct. Short of something catastrophic that
completely upsets the current status quo, there are many signs that Israel and
Iran are not headed for a direct confrontation in the immediate future. Though
the mainstream media dishonestly advertises such a war, the truth is that
Israel’s next war will not take place in Iran — or even Syria for that matter.
It is far more likely to take place in Lebanon.
As Goldman explained:
“Harder to calculate is Iran’s capacity to hit Israel. Hezbollah has
perhaps 120,000 missiles in Lebanon, more than enough to swamp Israel’s ‘Iron
Dome’ and other defenses. They are embedded in approximately 200 Shi’ite
villages in Lebanon’s south. That makes it difficult for the Israeli Army
to attack missile launchers without killing a large number of Shi’ite
civilians who provide an enormous human shield.
“But if Israel perceives the missiles as an existential threat, it will
‘bomb Lebanon back to the stone age,’ as Transportation Minister Israel Katz said
in February. Casualties would be in tens of thousands. Hezbollah is Iran’s ally
and to a great extent its creation, but an Israeli counterattack might mean the
end of the Shi’ite community in Lebanon with catastrophic casualty levels –
what one Israeli analyst described as “a Dresden,’ referring to the destruction
of the German city by firestorm during the Second World War.”
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As Anti-Media has documented over the past few years,
Israel has been actively preparing for a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon for some
time, including conducting extensive military drills that simulated a full-on
invasion of Lebanese territory.
“There’s no doubt that Israel is planning for a war with Hezbollah, but it
isn’t an easy task,” public intellectual Professor Noam
Chomsky told Anti-Media via email last week.
“According to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah has lots of missiles based in
many parts of Lebanon that are capable of serious damage to Israeli cities, and
to take them all out would require quick virtual destruction of Lebanon, it
seems.” Chomsky further observed.
Writing to Anti-Media via email, Miko Peled, human
rights activist and author of The General’s Son and Injustice and The
Story of the Holy Land Foundation Five agreed with the assertion that
Israel’s most immediate impending war will take place in Lebanon, not Syria or
Iran.
“I don’t believe any of the Iran threat nonsense has anything to do with a
threat from Iran. It serves two purposes: a smokescreen for Israeli crimes in
Palestine in general, particularly in Gaza, and in order to allow Israel to
attack Syria and Lebanon more freely,” Peled
explained.
According to Peled, Trump’s decision to nix the Iranian nuclear deal, also
known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was part and parcel of
this up and coming war. What no one seems to have noticed was that Trump’s
recent announcement on Iran also coincided with elections in
Lebanon, which further improved Hezbollah’s position in the country (Lebanon’s
Christian president is already a strong ally of Hezbollah).
“Having Trump accept Netanyahu’s [position on the Iran deal] and disregard
the international community, international agencies, and world opinion
regarding the Iran deal – and the economic sanctions – was a huge political
boost for Netanyahu,” Peled explained. “The election results
in Lebanon will surely be manipulated and presented as a ‘threat’ to Israel and
will be used as an excuse to attack. I doubt that Israel will risk suffering
another humiliating defeat from Hezbollah and so it may well be another
horrifying air assault.”
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In March of this year, Israel even simulated a
multi-front war in which Russia stepped in to protect Syria from Israeli
attacks. While this was a scenario in which Russia was protecting Syria, not
Lebanon, the fact remains that this hypothetical event was considered as a
result of Israel’s true intention to take on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would
naturally segue into other arenas, including Syria.
It is also important to note that Israel’s recent all-out assault in Syria,
allegedly tied to Israel’s perceived Iranian involvement, has actually helped Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu improve his domestic standing in the face
of numerous allegations of
corruption and bribery. It could be the case that the strikes on Syria and the
demonization of Iran are just tools for domestic pacification while the real
impending conflict we should be turning our attention toward continues to be
overlooked.
Also overlooked by the corporate media is an event which took place at the
end of April: Newly appointed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Tel Aviv
and allegedly gave
Israel the go-ahead to use bunker-busting bombs to take out Iranian armaments
in Syria.
In September of last year, Israel held its largest military drill in
20 years, which was specifically designed to simulate a war with Hezbollah in
Lebanon. In February of this year, thousands of U.S. and Israeli troops took
part in the biennial ‘Juniper Cobra’ drill, which simulated a “massive
ballistic missile attack against Israel” and the joint U.S.-Israeli response.
At this stage, with the exception of some unknown capabilities in Syria (a
significant number of which were already destroyed by Israel last month),
there’s only one country that could potentially launch a “massive ballistic
missile attack against Israel” — and no one is talking about it.