Donald Trump thinks his
“maximum pressure” campaign persuaded North Korea to abandon its nuclear
weapons program. But it’s a bunch of baloney. The reason Kim Jong-un is
planning to denuclearize is because China adamantly opposes nuclear weapons on
the peninsula. That’s the whole deal in a nutshell. China, who is North Korea’s
biggest trading partner, gave Kim an ultimatum: Ditch the nukes or face
long-term economic strangulation. Kim very wisely chose the former option,
which is to say, he backed down.
The situation in North Korea is
really quite bleak. Consider, for example, this recent piece in a United
Nations periodical titled “The 5 most under-reported humanitarian crises that
are happening right now”. Heading the list is this blurb on North Korea:
“….what has been drastically
underreported in the last year is that unprecedented number of people who are
going hungry. The UN estimates that 70 percent of the population, or 18 million
people, are food-insecure and reliant on government aid. To make things worse,
last year North Korea experienced its worst drought in 16 years, exacerbating
an already dire food shortage. With tight control of its borders keeping out
aid organizations and journalists, it’s almost impossible to capture how many
are actually receiving the urgent food aid they need.” (U.N. Dispatch)
Unfortunately, famine and
drought are just the tip of the iceberg. The economic sanctions have added a
whole new layer to the North’s misery, in fact, they have brought the economy
to its knees. Pyongyang might have been able to muddle through had Beijing not
joined the international blockade, but once China agreed to participate, the
North’s fate was sealed. In the last year, the DPRK’s currency has dropped
precipitously, the country’s import-export trade has been slashed by half, and
the battered economy has plunged into a deep slump. The problem is almost
entirely attributable to China’s tightening sanctions regime which has
effectively cut off the flow of capital and vital resources to the North. In order
to grasp how overly dependent the DPRK is on China, take a look at this:
“Trade with China represents
57% of North Korea’s imports and 42% of its exports. …
In February 2017, China
restricted all coal imports from North Korea until 2018. This is considered to
be extremely harmful to the North Korean economy, as coal was the top export of
the nation, and China was their top trading partner…
On 28 September 2017… China
ordered all North Korean companies operating in China to cease operations
within 120 days. By January 2018 customs statistics showed that trade between
the two countries had fallen to the lowest level recorded.
Banking
On 7 May 2013, Bank of China,
China’s biggest foreign exchange bank and other Chinese banks closed the
account of North Korea’s main foreign exchange bank.
On 21 February 2016 China
quietly ended financial support of North Korea without any media publicity. It
is reported to be due to the fallout of relations between the two
governments….”(Wikipedia)
China Sanctions Summary:
1.China destroyed the North’s
import and export trade, including the North’s primary export, coal.
2.China shut down all the
DPRK’s companies operating in China. (terminating the recycling of revenues
back to the North.)
3.China cut off access to
foreign banking. (and, thus, foreign investment)
4.China stopped providing any
financial support for the North.
What other country could
withstand this type of economic strangulation by its biggest trading partner?
None of this has anything to do
with Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign which really had no effect onKim’s
decision at all. Denuclearization is all China’s doing. China put a gun to
Kim’s head and simply waited for him to cave in. Which he did. He very wisely
chose the path of least resistance: Capitulation. The question is: What did Kim
get in return?Before we answer that, we need to understand that China-DPRK
relations have been strained for more than a year, dating back to early 2017
when China joined the US effort to impose sanctions on the North. The Korean News
agency sharply rebuked China for its disloyalty saying, “(China) is dancing to
the tune of the US while defending its hostile behavior with excuses that (the
sanctions) were not meant to hurt the North Korean people, but to check its
nuclear program.”
While the North’s anger is
understandable, it’s worth pointing out that Beijing has always opposed Kim’s
nuclear weapons programs, in fact, in 2016, (long before bilateral relations
soured) China’s Foreign Minister openly condemned the DPRK’s behavior saying,
“We strongly urge the DPRK side to remain committed to its denuclearization
commitment, and stop taking any actions that would make the situation worse.”
The warning was followed a year
later by joint sanctions aimed at forcing Kim to give up his nukes. To
Beijing’s credit, the goal was never to punish or humiliate the North, but to
strengthen regional security by reducing access to nuclear weapons. Bottom
line: China has acted responsibly throughout.
In March 2018, Kim made an
unannounced visit to General Secretary Xi Jinping in Beijing. Kim was given the
red carpet treatment for four days while the two leaders huddled and worked out
their strategy for denuclearization in the context of a broader economic
revitalization program aimed at integrating the peninsula with the rest of the
continent.Very little is known about the 4-day confab in Beijing, but it’s
obvious that Kim was encouraged to normalize relations with his counterpart
(Moon Jae-in) in the South based on a firm commitment to decommission his nuclear
weapons. It is no coincidence that the meeting between the two leaders and
Kim’s dramatic reversal in policy took place just weeks after Kim met with the
Chinese Premier. Clearly, China was the driving force behind Kim’s decision.
Critics of process think the
North is engaged in an elaborate hoax that will amount to nothing, but that is
probably not the case. Keep in mind, it is Beijing that is calling the shots
not Kim. If China wants Kim to abandon his nukes, that’s probably what he will
do. Of course, Kim would not go along with Beijing’s demands if he thought he
might be putting his country at risk of a preemptive attack by the United
States. Nor would he give up his nukes if he thought he was going to wind up
like Mummar Gaddafi who was savagely skewered after he succumbed to US demands
to surrender his WMD.
So how did China manage to
convince Kim that he had nothing to worry about?
This question has not yet been
fully answered, but we have to assume that China (and perhaps Russia) provided
assurances to Kim that his country would be defended if attacked by the United
States. Such guarantees would not be unprecedented, in fact, in 2017 Beijing
stated clearly that no unprovoked attack by the US on the DPRK would go
unanswered. Here’s part of the statement which appeared in Chinese state media:
“China should make it clear
that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the
U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” (but) “If the U.S. and South Korea
carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the
political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing
so.”
“China opposes both nuclear
proliferation and war in the Korean Peninsula. It will not encourage any side
to stir up military conflict, and will firmly resist any side which wants to
change the status quo of the areas where China’s interests are concerned.”
Beijing must have allayed Kim’s
fears or he never would have agreed to denuclearize. But now that he feels
protected, Kim appears to be eager to reconcile with his new friends in the
South. Here’s what he said on Friday:
“I look forward to making the
most of this opportunity so that we have the chance to heal the wounds between
the North and the South…. I came here to put an end to the history of
confrontation as well as to work shoulder to shoulder with you to tackle the
obstacles between us. I came with the confidence that a brighter future awaits
us.”
Kim is serious. He wants to
restart the peace process and restore economic ties with the South. He
formalized his commitment by signing a document that called for “the
prohibition of the use of force in any form against each other”, “an end to the
war” and”complete denuclearization.” Also, both leaders are committed to the
gradual economic integration of the North and South via vital infrastructure
projects that will strengthen popular support for the (eventual) reunification
of the country. The importance of this joint commitment cannot be overstated.
Kim is not simply giving up his nukes to placate China or ease sanctions, he is
taking the first step on a path towards “balanced economic growth and shared
prosperity”. Item 6 in the Panmunjeom Declaration”, which Kim Jong-un and South
Korean President Moon Jae-in signed on Friday, lays it out in black and white:
“South and North Korea agreed
to actively implement the projects previously agreed in the 2007 October 4 Declaration,
in order to promote balanced economic growth and co-prosperity of the nation.
As a first step, the two sides agreed to adopt practical steps towards the
connection and modernization of the railways and roads on the eastern
transportation corridor as well as between Seoul and Sinuiju for their utilization.”
The clause articulates the same
vision for the future as an earlier integration plan that was drafted at the
the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok on September 6-7, 2017. The
meetings– which included North and South Korea, Japan, Russia and China–
focused on drawing neighboring states into a common economic space with lowered
trade barriers to promote development and prosperity. The strategy has been
dubbed the Putin Plan and it is designed in a way that it can be easily linked
to the Eurasian Union project and China’s strategic “Silk Road Economic Belt” project.
The ultimate objective is to create a free-trade zone (“Greater Europe”)that
extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
The plan is explained in
greater detail in Gavan McCormick’s excellent article at The Asia-Pacific
Journal titled “North Korea and a Rules-Based Order for the Indo-Pacific, East
Asia, and the World”. The Putin Plan anticipates multiple Siberian oil and gas
pipelines criss-crossing the two Koreas to railways and ports that are linked
to Japan, China, the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe. Here’s an excerpt
from the article:
“South Korea’s President Moon
projected his understanding of this within the frame of what he called
“Northeast Asia-plus,” which involved construction of “nine bridges of
cooperation” (gas, railroads, ports, electricity, a northern sea route,
shipbuilding, jobs, agriculture, and fisheries), embedding the Korean peninsula
in the frame of the Russian and Chinese-led BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) and Shanghai Cooperation Organiziation (SCO) organizations, extending and
consolidating those vast, China- and Russia-centred geo-political and economic
groupings. Though billed as “economic,” and having no explicit
“security” element, the Vladivostok conference was nevertheless one that would
go a long way towards meeting North Korea’s security concerns and making
redundant its nuclear and missile programs. …Unstated, but plainly
crucial, North Korea would accept the security guarantee of the five (Japan
included), refrain from any further nuclear or missile testing, shelve
(“freeze”) its existing programs and gain its longed for “normalization” in the
form of incorporation in regional groupings, the lifting of sanctions and
normalized relations with its neighbor states, without surrender….
….Vladivostok might mark a first
step towards a comprehensive, long overdue, post-Cold War re-think of regional
relationships….” (“North Korea and a Rules-Based Order for the Indo-Pacific,
East Asia, and the World”, Gavan McCormick, The Asia-Pacific Journal)
In my opinion, Kim Jong-un is
prepared to liquidate his nuclear weapons stockpile in order to join this
massive regional development project that will draw the continents closer
together, create new centers of power and prosperity, undermine Washington’s
self-aggrandizing “pivot to Asia” strategy, and strengthen a rules-based
multi-polar world order that protects the sovereignty and rights of all its
members. Thus, “denuclearization” conceals a tectonic shift in the global power
structure.
Bravo, for that.