One
of the local Washington television stations was doing a typical early morning
honoring our soldiers schtick just before Thanksgiving. In it soldiers
stationed far from home were treated to videolinks so they could talk to their
families and everyone could nod happily and wish themselves a wonderful
holiday. Not really listening, I became interested when I half heard that the
soldier being interviewed was spending his Thanksgiving in Ukraine.
It
occurred to me that the soldier just might have committed a security faux pas by revealing where he
was, but I also recalled that there have been joint military maneuvers as well
as some kind of training mission going on in the country, teaching the
Ukrainian Army how to use the shiny new sophisticated weapons that the United
States was providing it with to defend against “Russian aggression.”
Ukraine
is only one part of the world where the Trump Administration has expanded the
mission of democracy promotion, only in Kiev the reality is more like faux democracy promotion since Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko is clearly exploiting a situation that he himself provoked.
He envisions setting himself up as a victim of Moscow to aid in his attempts to
establish his own power through a security relationship with Washington. That
in turn will help his bid for reelection in March 2019 elections, in which his
poll numbers are currently running embarrassingly low largely due to the
widescale corruption in his government. Poroshenko has already done much to
silence the press in his county while the developing crisis with Russia has
enabled him to declare martial law in the eastern parts of the country where he
is most poorly regarded. If it all works out, he hopes to win the election and
subsequently, it is widely believed, he will move to expand his own executive authority.
There
also has to be some consideration the encounter with the Russians on the Kerch
Strait was contrived by Poroshenko with the assistance of a gaggle of American
neoconservative and Israeli advisers who have been actively engaged with the
Ukrainian government for the past several years. The timing was good for
Poroshenko for his own domestic political reasons but it was also an
opportunity for the neocons warmongers that surround Trump and proliferate
inside the Beltway to scuttle any possible meeting between a vulnerable Donald
Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 gathering in Argentina.
The
defection of Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen, together with the assumption that a
lot of anti-Trump dirt will be spilled soon, means that the American president had
to be even more cautious than ever in any dealings with Moscow and all he
needed was a nod of approval from National Security Adviser John Bolton and
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to cancel the encounter. A heads-of-state
meeting might not have solved anything but it certainly would be better than
the current drift towards a new cold war. If the United States has only one
vitally important relationship anywhere it is with Russia as the two countries
are ready, able and apparently willing to destroy the world under the aegis of
self-defense.
Given
the anti-Russian hysteria prevailing in the U.S. and the ability of the neocons
to switch on the media, it should come as no surprise that the
Russian-Ukrainian incident immediately generated calls from the press and
politicians for the White House to get tough with the Kremlin. It is important
to note that the United States has no actual national interest in getting
involved in a war between Russia and Ukraine if that should come about. The two
Eastern European countries are neighbors and have a long history of both
friendship and hostility but the only thing clear about the conflict is that it
is up to them to sort things out and no amount of sanctions and jawing by
concerned congressmen will change that fact.
Other
Eastern European nations that similarly have problems with Russia should also
be considered provocateurs as they seek to create tension to bind the United
States more closely to them through the NATO alliance. The reality is that
today’s Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union and it neither aspires to
nor can afford hegemony over its former allies. What it has made very clear
that it does want is a modus vivendiwhere Russia itself is not being threatened by the West.
Recent military maneuvers in Poland and
Lithuania and the stationing of new missiles in Eastern
Europe do indeed pose a genuine threat to Moscow as it places NATO forces on
top of Russia’s border. When Russia reacts to incursions by NATO warships and
planes right along its borders, it is accused of acting aggressively. One
wonders how the U.S. government would respond if a Russian aircraft carrier
were to take up position off the eastern seaboard and were to begin staging
reconnaissance flights. Or if the Russian army were to begin military exercises
with the Cubans? Does anyone today remember the Bay of Pigs?
When
it comes to international conflicts context is everything. Seeing the incident
between Russia and Ukraine in Manichean terms as an example of Moscow’s
aggressive instincts is satisfying in some circles, but it does not in any way
reflect the reality on the ground. Internal politics of the two countries
combined with deliberate fabrications that are expected to generate a certain
response operate together to create a largely false narrative for both international
and domestic consumption. Unfortunately, narratives have consequences: in this
case, the sacrifice of the possibly beneficial meeting between Trump and Putin.
The
same dynamic works vis-à-vis Washington’s other enemy du jour Iran. In the case of
Russia, useless “friend” Ukraine is pulling the strings while regarding Iran it
is conniving Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been accused of being the
world’s leading sponsor of terror, of destabilizing the Middle East, and of
having a secret nuclear weapon program that will be used to attack Israel and
Europe. None of those assertions are true. The terrorism tag comes from the
country’s relationship with Hezbollah, which is only a terrorist group insofar
as it is hostile to Israel and pledged to resist any future Israeli invasion of
Lebanon. Washington and Israel have pushed the terrorism label for Hezbollah,
but most Europeans have begun to disregard the designation since the group has
become a part of the Lebanese government.
And
regarding destabilizing the Middle East, that has largely been the end result
of actions undertaken by the United States, Israel and the Saudis, while the
alleged Persian nuclear weapons program is a fantasy. If someone in the U.S.
national security apparatus had any brains the United States would work to
improve relations with Iran real soon as the Iranians would in the long run
quite likely prove to be better friends than those rascals who are currently
running around using that label.
And
there are other friends in unlikely places. Beleaguered British Prime Minister
Theresa May is wailing loudly against a Trump threat to
reveal classified documents relating to Russiagate. The real problem is that
the documents apparently don’t expose anything done by the Russians. Rather,
they seem to appear to reveal a plot by the British intelligence
and security services working in collusion with then CIA
Director John Brennan to subvert the course of the 2016 election in favor of
the Deep State and Establishment favorite Hillary Clinton. How did that one work
out?
So
how about it? Teenagers who get in trouble often have to ditch their bad
friends to turn their lives around. There is still a chance for the United
States if we keep our distance from the bad friends we have been nurturing all
around the world, friends who have been convincing us to make poor choices. Get
rid of the ties the bind to the Saudis, Israelis, Ukrainians, Poles, and yes,
even the British. Deal fairly with all nations and treat everyone the same, but
bear in mind that there are only two relationships that really matter – Russia
and China. Make a serious effort to avoid a war by learning how to get along
with those two nations and America might actually survive to celebrate a
tricentennial in 2076.