On January 25, two days after Random Guyidó declared
himself President of Venezuela, the lack of planing in the U.S. coup attempt
was already obvious:
My impression is that Trump was scammed. It was long evident that
he gives little attention to details and does not think things through. Most
likely Bolton, Pompeo and Rubio presented him with a three step plan:
Phase 1.
Support the self declared president Guaidó; Phase 2: ... (wishful thinking)
...; Phase 3: Take half of their oil!
...
Bolton and Pompeo are both experienced politicians and bureaucrats. They likely knew that their plan was deeply flawed and would require much more than Trump would normally commit to. My hunch is that the soon coming mission creep was build into their plan, but that they did not reveal that.
...
Bolton and Pompeo are both experienced politicians and bureaucrats. They likely knew that their plan was deeply flawed and would require much more than Trump would normally commit to. My hunch is that the soon coming mission creep was build into their plan, but that they did not reveal that.
The U.S. coup planners and their Venezuelan
puppets had hoped that the Venezuelan military would jump to their side. That
was wishful thinking and unlikely to happen. They also thought up some
"humanitarian aid" scheme in which pictures of trucks crossing a long
blocked bridge would soon shame the Venezuelan president into stepping down.
That was likewise nonsense.
Unless the
U.S. is willing and able to escalate, the coup attempt is destined to fail.
'Western'
media now recognize that phase 2 of the coup plan is in deep trouble. Today
the Guardian, Bloomberg and the New York
Times all describe growing frustration with the lack of success.
The Guardian notes:
[T]hree weeks after Guaidó electrified the previously rudderless
opposition movement by declaring himself interim leader, there are
signs his campaign risks losing steam.
An
anticipated mass defection of military chiefs – which opposition leaders admit
is a prerequisite to Maduro’s departure – has not materialized, and Maduro’s
inner-circle has begun claiming it has weathered the political storm.
Bloomberg writes:
Since Juan Guaido declared himself interim president three weeks
ago and offered amnesty to officers who abandon Maduro, more than 30 countries
led by the U.S. have hailed the move, waiting for the military to follow. There
hasn’t been a rush to his side.
...
In a country with more than 2,000 generals and admirals, only one top officer -- who commands no troops -- has pledged allegiance to Guaido.
...
This is a major reason why the revolution isn’t moving as quickly as some had hoped when Guaido electrified the world on Jan. 23 with his declaration. This has led to impatience and finger-pointing. U.S. policy makers and those around Guaido -- as well as leaders in Brazil and Colombia -- are eyeing one another and worrying about failure. Officials in each camp have said privately they assumed the others had a more developed strategy.
...
In a country with more than 2,000 generals and admirals, only one top officer -- who commands no troops -- has pledged allegiance to Guaido.
...
This is a major reason why the revolution isn’t moving as quickly as some had hoped when Guaido electrified the world on Jan. 23 with his declaration. This has led to impatience and finger-pointing. U.S. policy makers and those around Guaido -- as well as leaders in Brazil and Colombia -- are eyeing one another and worrying about failure. Officials in each camp have said privately they assumed the others had a more developed strategy.
The NY
Times shows similar frustration:
[The opposition's] goal was to bring the supplies into Venezuela,
forcing a confrontation with Mr. Maduro, who has refused the help. This would
cast Mr. Maduro in a bad light, opposition leaders said, and display their
ability to set up a government-like relief system in a nation where the
crumbling economy has left many starving, sick and without access to medicine.
But there
was no dramatic confrontation.
The
"aid" delivery failed, according to Bloomberg, for lack of planning and coordination:
Worry about what comes next has intensified. At a
meeting in the U.S. embassy in Bogota, Colombia, last week, military,
intelligence and civilian leaders from both countries discussed ways of moving
humanitarian aid into Venezuela. There was a sense of frustration in the air,
according to a participant who agreed to discuss it on condition of anonymity.
The U.S.
said it was paying for the aid but wanted Colombia to find trucks and drivers
to move it in. The Colombians said no one would accept the mission because the
Venezuelan military would arrest them. The aid remains in warehouses near the
border.
At similar
meetings in the Colombian border city of Cucuta, a person who attended said the
dynamic was the same -- the U.S. expecting Colombia to find the means to
deliver the aid and the Colombians saying they can’t.
The
opposition is only now thinking up its own crazy scheme for
delivering the "aid":
In Cúcuta, members of the opposition say they are considering
options to physically force the shipment into Venezuela.
Omar Lares,
a former opposition mayor in exile in Cúcuta, said organizers want
people to surround an aid truck on the Colombian side and accompany it to the
bridge. A crowd of thousands would be gathered on the other side to push
through a security cordon, move the containers blocking the bridge, and
accompany the aid into Venezuela.
“One group
over there, one over here, and we’ll make one large human chain,” he said.
And what
does he think the battalion of Venezuelan soldiers between the two groups will
do? Just step aside and allow an invasion of their country?
The struggle
could make for some marketable TV pictures but it would not achieve anything.
The lack of planning is daunting even to the lobbyists in Washington DC:
“The opposition has created immense expectations, and it’s not
at all clear they have a plan for actually fulfilling them,” said David
Smilde, a Venezuela analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America.
The U.S.
coup plotters and their Venezuelan proxies seem to recognize that there will
be no imminent change:
Addressing a congressional hearing, the US special envoy on
Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, claimed “Maduro and his band of thieves” were
finished. He claimed international pressure meant “there is a storm brewing
inside the Maduro regime that will eventually bring it to an end”.
But while
Abrams said Washington was “hopeful and confident” of Maduro’s demise he admitted
it was “impossible to predict” when it might come. The US would maintain
pressure “over the next weeks and months”, he added, suggesting a quick
resolution is no longer expected.
Opposition
leaders have spent recent days trying to dampen expectations that Maduro’s exit
is imminent.
Juan Andrés
Mejía, an opposition leader and Guaidó ally, admitted that goal “could take
some time”.
The little
spontaneous support the Random Guyidó had in some parts of the population is
already lessening. Yesterday's demonstration he had called for saw less
attendance than the one on January 23. He now says that he will
force the 'aid' crossing on February 23 but he does not seem to have a real
plan to achieve that:
President of the National Assembly Guaido also promised the
country that US-delivered humanitarian aid will “enter the country no matter
what” on February 23, issuing an “order” for the military to allow it to enter.
However, military leaders have dismissed these calls, with the Central Defense
Region tweeting in response that the armed forces would not take any orders
from an “imperial lackey.”
“One month
after the swearing in we have done it. This February 23 the humanitarian aid
will enter the country. The Armed Forces have 11 days to decide if they are on
the side of the Venezuelans and the Constitution or on that of the usurper,” he
claimed in reference to President Maduro.
If the U.S. does not do more than it has done so
far the government under President Maduro can sit this out. The sanctions and
the lack of oil revenue will create many immediate problems. But in a few weeks
Venezuelan oil will have found new buyers. Fresh money will come in and new
sources for imports of medicine and staple food will have been found.
Over the
same time the Random Guy will lose support. The party he nominally leads only
won 20% of the votes. The other opposition parties were never informed of his
plan to declare himself president. Their support for the step was lukewarm and
will cool further. They may in the end support the mediation talks Maduro has
offered and which the UN, Uruguay and Mexico also support. The talks could lead
to new parliament and/or presidential elections in a year or two and thereby
solve the situation.
The U.S.
would not be satisfied by a compromise solution. Trump is now committed to
'regime change' in Venezuela. But how can he do it?
Waging an
open war against that country would be very messy, expensive and difficult to
justify. To start and support a guerilla war - Elliott Abrams specialty - takes
time also costs a lot of money. The chances to win it are low. Moreover Trump
wants to get re-elected but could lose many votes over both scenarios.
What else
then can he do?