The Neocons never cease to amaze me and their latest stunt with Venezuela
falls into this bizarre category of events which are both absolutely
unthinkable and simultaneously absolutely predictable. This apparent logical
contradiction is the direct result of a worldview and mindset which is, I
believe, unique to the Neocons: a mix of imperial hubris and infinite
arrogance, a complete lack of decency, a total contempt for the rest of
mankind, crass ignorance, a narcissist/sociopath’s inability to have any kind
of empathy or imagine another guy’s reaction and, finally, last but most
certainly not least, crass stupidity. There is so much which can be said about
the latest US aggression on Venezuela that entire books could be (and will be)
written about this, but I want to begin by look at a few specific but
nonetheless very symptomatic aspects:
“In
your face” stupidity or bootcamp-like deliberate public humiliation?
Remember the almost universal
reaction of horror when Bolton was appointed as National Security Advisor?
Well, apparently, either the Neocons completely missed that, which I doubt, or
they did what they always do and decided to double-down by retrieving Elliott
Abrams from storage and appointing him US Special Envoy to Venezuela. I mean,
yes, of course, the Neocons are stupid and sociopathic enough not to ever care
about others, but in this case I think that we are dealing with a “Skripal
tactic”: do something so ridiculously stupid and offensive that it places all
your vassals before a stark choice: either submit and pretend like you did not
notice or, alternatively, dare to say something and face with wrath of Uncle
Shmuel (the Neocon’s version of Uncle Sam). And it worked, in the name of “solidarity” or whatever
else, the most faithful lackeys of the Empire immediate fell in line behind the
latest US aggression against a sovereign nation in spite of the self-evident
fact that this aggression violates every letter of the most sacred principles
of international law. This is exactly the same tactic as when they make
you clean toilets with a toothbrush or do push-ups in the mud during basic
training: not only to condition you to total obedience, but to make you publicly
give up any semblance of dignity.
MAGA? really?
This is not just a case of
history repeating itself like a farce, however. It is hard to overstate how
totally offensive a character like Elliott Abrams is for every Latin American
who remembers the bloody US debacle in Nicaragua. US vassals now have to give
up any type of pretend-dignity in front of their own people and act as if
Abrams was a respectable and sane human being.
I believe that this kind of “obedience conditioning by means of
humiliation” is not just a case of the Neocons being idiots, but a deliberate
tactic which will, of course, backfire and end up hurting US puppets worldwide
(just like the pro-US Russian “liberal” opposition was eviscerated as a result
of being associated by the Russian public opinion with the US policies against
Russia, especially in the Ukraine).
Finally, these appointments
also show that the senior-Neocons are frightened and paranoid as there are
still plenty of very sharp junior-Neocon folks to choose from in the US, yet
they felt the need to get Abrams from conservation and place him in a key
position in spite of the strong smell of naphthalene emanating from him. This
reminds me of the gerontocrats of the Soviet Politburo in the worst stagnation
years who had to appoint the likes of Chernenko to top positions.
The one thing the Mr MAGA’s
administration has in common with the late Brezhevian Politburo is its total
inability to get anything done. My wife refers to the folks in the White House
(since Dubya came to power) as the “gang that couldn’t shoot
straight” and she is right (she always is!): they just can’t
really get anything done anymore – all their half-assed pseudo-successes are
inevitably followed by embarrassing failures.
As I wrote in my article “The good news about the
Trump Presidency: stupid can be good!” these folks will only
precipitate the collapse of the AngloZionist Empire, which is a very good
thing. The bad thing is, of course, that the Neocons are negating any chance
for a gradual, phased, collapse and are, instead, creating a dynamic in
which a sudden, catastrophic,
collapse becomes much more likely.
Now we have all seen the latest
antic from Bolton: showing up with a yellow pad with “5,000 troops to Colombia”
written on it. Again, this might be a case of Bolton being senile or not giving
a damn, but I doubt it. I think that this is just another oh-so-subtle way to
threaten Venezuela with a US-led invasion. And, really, why not?
If the Empire thinks it has the
authority and power to decide who the President of Venezuela should be, it has
to logically back up this stance with a threat, especially since there is no US
authority, moral or otherwise, left.
The obvious question here is how this threat will be
received in Venezuela and that largely depends on how credible that threat is.
Now, “5,000 troops” could mean anything, ranging from a infantry brigade combat
team to the typical US mix of as many putatively “special” forces as possible
(to make every service happy and give everybody a piece of the expected (but
never achieved) “victory pie” – many careers in the US depend on that kind of
stuff). At this point in time, I rather not speculate and get technical about
how such a force could be structured. Let’s just assume that it will be an
overall credible and well-packaged force and try to speculate how the
Venezuelans could react to it.
The state of the Venezuelan military
Here I am particularly lucky as
I have a close and trusted Latin American friend who is now a retired
Lt-Colonel who spent many months in Venezuela working with the Venezuelan
military in a capacity which I cannot disclose, but which gave him quasi-total
access to every unit and military facility in the country and who, just a
couple of years ago, shared with me his impression of the Venezuelan military.
Here is what he told me:
A military, any military, is
always the product of the society which produces it and this is also true of
Venezuela. It would be silly to admit that the Venezuelan economy is a total
mess while expecting the Venezuelan armed forces to be a shining example of
professionalism, honesty and patriotism. The sad reality is very different.
For one thing, much of the
Venezuelan military is hopelessly corrupt, as is the rest of society. In a country whose economy is imploding, this is hardly
surprising. Furthermore, for years both Chavez and Maduro have fought an uphill
battle to remove as many potential traitors and class enemies (in a Marxist
sense of the word) from the Venezuelan military and replace them with “socially
close” (a Bolshevik concept) elements from the poorer sections of society.
Truth be told, this was a partially successful strategy as seen by the fact
that during this latest coup attempt the Venezuelan military overwhelmingly
supported the Venezuelan Constitution and the legitimacy of Maduro. And yet that kind of loyalty
often comes at the costs of professionalism and at the risk of corruption as
seen by the case of the Venezuelan military attache to the US who clearly was a
US agent. I am afraid that the current situation in Venezuela might be similar
to what it was in Syria in the very early stages of the AngloZionist war
against this country when scores of top officials of the Syrian government
proved to be traitors and/or US agents. In Syria the government eventually
re-took control of the situation, but only with a great deal of help from Iran
and Russia and after almost being toppled by the US-run Takfiri forces.
The good news here, according
to my friend, is that the Venezuelan special forces (army special forces,
jungle infantry troops, “Caribe” counter insurgency units, airborne units, etc)
are in a much better shape and that they could form the core of a resistance
force to the invasion, not unlike what the Republican Guard eventually did in
Iraq. But the biggest difference with Iraq is that in Venezuela the
majority of the people are still backing Maduro and that any invasion force
should expect to meet a lot of resistance of the type which the US encountered
in Iraq after the invasion of the country. Also, there was a fragile truce of
sorts between Hugo Chavez and various Left-wing guerillas who agreed to stop
their military operations, but who also kept all their weapons “just in case”.
This “case” has now happened and we can expect that any US invasion will
trigger an immediate re-emergence of a Left-wing guerilla force which, combined
with popular support and the key role of a core of patriotic Venezuelan special
forces could form a very dangerous combination, especially in the mid to long term.
Keep in mind that corrupt
officers don’t like combat and that while they might aid a US invasion force,
they will only do so as long as things seem to go the easy way, but as soon as
things go south (which is what always happens to US invasion forces) they will
run as fast as they can. So while the endemic corruption now will be a problem
for the Maduro government, it will become a problem for the US as soon the
legitimate government is toppled.
Comparisons are necessarily
tricky and crude, but with this caveat in mind, don’t think “Syria” but rather
think “Iraq” when considering the possible outcomes of a US invasion.
The state of the Venezuelan people
This is really crucial. Hugo Chavez’ reforms alienated a lot of Venezuelans, especially
those who made their fortunes by servicing US interests and who became your
typical Latin American version of a comprador class. Much of the
middle-class also got hurt and are angry. However, these same reforms also
empowered huge numbers of destitute and poor Venezuelans who, for the first
time, felt that the government stood for their interests and who remember what
it was like to live in abject poverty under a US-backed regime. These folks
probably have no illusion about what the toppling of this government would mean
for them and they are likely to fight hard, if not necessarily competently, to
keep the little rights and means they acquired during the Chavez years. There
is even what is sometimes referred to “Chavistas
without Chavez” which some describe as potential
back-stabbing traitors while other see them as more pragmatic, less
ideological, faction of Chavez supporters who decry Chavez’ mistakes but don’t
want their country to turn into a Colombia-style US colony. Whatever may be the
case, Hugo Chavez’ pro-popular policies left a very profound mark on the
country and you can expect that a lot of Venezuelans will take up arms and
resist any US/Colombian invasion.
Would you trust
that face?
Here I think we can all express our heartfelt gratitude to Mr MAGA whose
appointment of Elliott “Iran-Contra” Abrams has done more than any government
sponsored propaganda to clearly and bluntly explain to the Venezuelan people
who is doing what to them and why.
Seriously, Ron Paul or Tulsi Gabbard speaking of democracy is one thing,
but having gangsters and psychopathic thugs like Pompeo, Bolton or Abrams in
charge really sends a message and that message is that we are dealing with a
banal case of highway robbery triggered by two very crude considerations:
·
First,
to re-take control of Venezuela’s immense natural resources.
·
Second,
to prove to the world that Uncle Shmuel can still, quote, “pick up
some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show
the world we mean business“, unquote.
President Macrobama?
The obvious problem is that 1) nobody takes the US seriously because 2) the US has not
been capable of defeating any country capable of resistance since many decades
already. The various US special forces, which would typically spearhead any
invasion, have an especially appalling record of abject failures every time they
stop posing for cameras and have to engage in real combat. I assure you that
nobody in the Venezuelan military cares about movies like “Rambo” or “Delta
Force” while they carefully studied US FUBARs in Somalia, Grenada, Iran and
elsewhere. You can also bet that the Cubans, who have had many years of
experience dealing with the (very competent) South African special forces in
Angola and elsewhere will share their experience with their Venezuelan
colleagues.
Last but not least, there are a
lot of weapons in circulation in Venezuela and which the various popular
militias and National Guard would be more than happy to further distribute to
the local population if any invasion appears to be successful.
The State of the Empire and its
puppet-President Macrobama
Well, here the famous “insanity is repeating the same
thing over and over again expecting different results” is the best possible description of US actions. Just look at
this sequence:
· The
AngloZionists leaders of the Empire appoints a hybrid of Obama and
Macron named Juan Guaido as “legitimate interim President”
· US
puppets in Europe and Latin America immediately fall in line behind Uncle
Shmuel
· The
Ziomedia launches strategic PSYOP about Russian
airplanes flying Venezuelan gold out of the country
· No
western politician in office dares to say a single word about this massive
full-spectrum violation of all the most sacred principles of international law.
But then, international law has been dead since the US/NATO war on the Serbian
people, so this is hardly “news”…
Does all this not look boringly familiar?
Does this bizarre mix of Neocons, gerontocrats and deepstaters really,
sincerely, believe that this time around they will “win” (however you define
that)?!
More relevantly – has this recipe ever worked in the past? I would say
that if we accept, for argument’s sake, that the goal is to “restore democracy”
then obviously “no”. But if the goal is to wreck a
country, then it has worked, quite a few times indeed.
Next, a few misplaced hopes
I am getting a lot of emails
suggesting that Russia might do in Venezuela what she did in Syria. Let me
immediately tell you that this is not going to happen. Yes, there are a lot of
Russians in Venezuela, but the “Russians are not coming”. For one thing, I will
never cease to repeat that the Russian intervention in Syria was a very small
one, and that even if this small force proved formidable, it was really
acting primarily as a force multiplier for the Iranians, Hezbollah and the Syrian government forces.
And yet, even the deployment of this very small force necessitated a huge
logistics effort from Russia whose military (being a purely defensive one) is
simply not structured for long-distance power projection. Syria is about 1000km
from Russia. Venezuela is about 10 times (!) further. Yes, I know,a few Tu-160
visited the country twice now and there are Russian advisors in the country and
the Venezuelans have a few pretty good Russian weapons systems. But here,
again, this is a game of numbers. Limited numbers of Russian-made combat
aircraft (fixed and rotary wing), air defense missiles or even large numbers of
advanced MANPADs or assault rifles won’t do the trick against a determined
US-Colombian invasion. Finally, there is no Venezuelan equivalent to Iran or
Hezbollah (an outside ally and friend) which would be capable and willing to
deploy real combat forces for actual, sustained combat against the invader.
Next comes terrain. Yes, much
of Venezuela is difficult to access, but not for jungle-experienced forces
which both the US military and the Colombians have. Furthermore, there is
absolutely no need to invade the entire country to topple the legitimate
government. For that all you need is to control is a few key facilities in a
few key locations and you are done. For example, I don’t see the USAF or USN
wasting any time in air-to-air combat against the (few) Venezuelan Sukhois –
they will simply destroy them in their hangars along with their runways and air
combat management radars and command posts. So the terrain will not prevent the
Empire of suppressing Venezuelan air defenses and as soon as this is done, you
can expect the usual mix of bomb and missile strikes which will create chaos,
wreck command and control capabilities and, basically, disorganize much of the
military. Finally, US forces in Colombia and USN ships off the Venezuelan coast
will enjoy a safe harbor from which to launch as many strikes as they want.
Next, hopes that Russia and
China will somehow resuscitate the Venezuelan economy are also ill-founded.
First, neither country is interested in pouring money into a bottomless pit. It
is one thing to sign contracts which are likely to eventually produce a return
on investment and quite another to dump money into a bottomless pit (as the US and
Europe have found out in the Ukraine). Second, the Venezuelan economy is so
deeply enmeshed in the US-UK run international financial system that neither
China nor Russia can do anything about it. That is not to say that US sanctions, subversion and sabotage
did not play a major role in the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, they sure
did, but it is equally true (at least to Russian specialists) that many
of the Chavista reforms were botched, a lot of them were a case of too little
too late, and that it will take years to refloat the Venezuelan economy.
Finally, we are comparing
apples to oranges here: the task of the AngloZionists is to destroy the
Venezuelan economy while the Chinese and Russian task would be, at least in
theory, to rescue it. Destroying is so much easier than building, that the
entire comparison is logically flawed and fundamentally unfair.
I really mean no offense to the
supporters of Hugo Chavez and his ideals (I very much include myself in this
category) but anybody who has been to, or near, Venezuela will tell you that
destitute Venezuelans are not only running out of the country in large numbers,
but they also contribute to destabilize the neighboring states. So we should
have no Pollyannish notions about all the reports about the economic and social
collapse in Venezuela as only “US propaganda”. Sadly, much of it is true even
if often exaggerated, lopsided and missing all the very real successes of the
Chavez reforms, hence the continuous popular support, in spite of it all, the
Maduro government continues to enjoy. Still, the overall picture is very bleak
and it will take Venezuela consistent and correct action to recover from the
current plight.
So is there still hope? Yes,
absolutely!
I recently replied the following to a friend asking me about a possible
Russian intervention in Venezuela “I place my own hopes not in the
Venezuelan military, or in Chinese or Russian help, but on the amazing ability
of the Americans to f*** up. At the end of the day, that is our biggest ally:
the US stupidity, ignorance, arrogance and cowardice“.
Think of what currently passes as a “policy” of the US in Venezuela as
a diagnostic tool.
Not just to diagnose the moral
degeneracy and mental pathology of the leaders of the AngloZionist Empire, but
also to diagnose the very real state of despair and chaos of the Empire itself.
Under Obama, for all his faults and weaknesses, the US succeeded in subverting
a list of crucial Latin American countries (like Brazil or Argentina) but now,
with Mr MAGA, it can’t even do that. The kind of antics we see from the Pompeo,
Bolton & Abrams gang is amazing in its crudeness and, frankly, makes a
supposed “indispensable nation” look absolutely ridiculous. These losers
already had to fold several times, in spite of equally hyperbolic threats
delivered with maximal gravitas (think DPRK here), and yet they still think
that crude bullying methods can yield success. They
can’t. Immense firepower is not a substitute for brains.
In its short and blood-soaked
history, the US has pretty much always acted like some criminal enterprise run
by brutal gangsters, but in the past some of these gangsters could be extremely
well educated and intelligent (think James Baker here). Today, their guns are
still lying around (albeit in various states of disrepair), but they are
wielded by ignorant retards. Yes, ignorant retards with
guns can be very dangerous, but they can never be effective!
Conclusion
Right now the US, backed by its
various colonies and vassal states, appears to be ready to deliver a death blow
to Venezuela and, truth be told, they might be able to do just that. But, for
whatever it is worth, my gut feeling is that they will fail again, even against
the weakest countries of the Axis of Resistance. That is not to say that
Venezuela is not in a heap of critical problems. But I believe that in spite of
being in a critical condition, Venezuela will be able to bounce back, just like
Syria did. After all, the Syrian example proves that it *is* possible to resist
a superior invading force while at the same time successfully engaging in
critically needed reforms. Yes, today’s Caracas is in very bad shape, but the
city of Aleppo was in a much worse shape until it was liberated, and now
quasi-normal life has returned to it (in sharp contrast to the US liberated
devastated city of Raqqa which still lies in ruins).
Yankees (to use the usual Latin-American expression) are just like their
Israeli overlords: they are capable of devastating violence but they have no
staying power: if things don’t go their way fast, really fast, they run and
barricade themselves somewhere faraway from danger. In our case, they might
even do what they did in Iraq and Afghanistan: build obscenely huge embassies,
create a special zone around them, and sit tight while the country is engulfed
in a bloody civil war. This way, they can provide CNN & Co. with footage of
a “peaceful neighborhood” while still claiming that the Stars and Strips are
still proudly flying high over the enemy’s capital and that “these colors don’t
run”. This would be a disastrous outcome for the Venezuelan nation and this is
why we all have to try to prevent this, by speaking out before the US further
wrecks yet another country.
Hopefully the memory of past completely
failed, humiliating and bloody invasions will convince the right people at the
Pentagon to do whatever it takes to prevent the US from launching yet another
stupid and immoral war of choice on behalf of the Neocons.