A summit of the national
security advisors from the USA, Israël and Russia has been announced in
Jerusalem. The aim of this conference is to untangle the imbroglio around the
Axis of Resistance, guarantee the security of all the States in the Middle East,
and establish a shared suzerainty of the United States and Russia over all the
actors, including Israël.
A
summit of the three national security advisors from the United States, Israël
and Russia will be held in June 2019 in Jerusalem. This unique event has
already given rise to numerous « revelations » and « denials » about the
subjects which will be discussed. Almost all commentators are spreading
erroneous ideas which are then copied in unison. We have to rectify this
situation before evaluating what is at stake in the summit.
The game of the major Powers in
the region
During the Cold War, the US
strategy of containment managed to counter Soviet influence in the Middle East.
After the collapse of the USSR, Russia withdrew from the region, and only
returned during the Western war against Syria.
Russia
has been present in the Levant (except for the period 1991-2011) since Tsarina
Catherine II, who, at the request of the inhabitants of the region, sent its
Navy to defend Beïrut. Its policy was aimed primarily at protecting the
foundation of Russian culture, the cradle of Christianity (which is in
Damascus, not Jerusalem). By doing so, Russia extended its influence in the
Eastern Mediterranean and entered into the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
In 2011, Russia was the only
state which distinguished the colour revolutions in the Maghreb (the « Arab
Springs ») from the wars against Libya and Syria. The Western powers, who have
their own explanation of these events, still have not made the effort to
understand their interpretation by Russia. The point here is not to determine
who is right and who is wrong – that is another subject [1] – but to admit that there are two totally
different readings of the facts. We should note that the Western powers agree
that Moscow has not accepted the way in which they violated the resolution
intended to protect the civil populations in Libya. They therefore recognise
that it was not the Russians, but Western imperialism which created the problem
we are facing today.
On
the basis of its own analysis, Russia began to oppose its veto to the Western
resolutions concerning Syria at the Security Council. Simultaneously, at the
request of Syria, it began negotiations with Damascus with a view to deploying
peace-keeping troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in
Syria. Finally, Washington and Moscow met in Geneva, in presence of the Western
powers but the absence of the Middle Eastern actors, to formalise a shared
suzerainty over the Middle East. That was in June 2012. The honeymoon lasted no
more than a few days. It was destroyed by France, acting on behalf of Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton.
Seven years later, Moscow
demanded its due. Indeed, it was Russia – not the CSTO – which had deployed its
military in Syria and, together with the Syrian Arab Army and Hezbollah, had
defeated the jihadists – and absolutely not Washington and its allies who, on
the contrary, had armed them [2]. Russia claimed its part from Jerusalem,
because a million Russian- speakers are Israëli citizens, and because one of
them, Avigdor Lieberman, has recently caused the fall of Netanyahu’s government
– twice [3].
This
evolution is difficult to admit for those who are still thinking in terms of
the US/Israëli alliance which characterised the Bush Jr. era. Nonetheless,
since the defeat of Daesh, the Israëli authorities have visited Moscow much
more frequently than Washington.
The game of the regional powers
facing Israël
It is
accepted as self-evident that the forces of the « Axis of Resistance »
(Palestine-Lebanon-Syria-Iraq-Iran) are determined to annihilate the Israëlis
just as the Nazis were committed to destroying the Jews. This is a grotesque
mash-up of copy and paste.
In
reality, Hezbollah was originally a network of Shiite Resistance to the Israëli
occupation of Lebanon. It was at first armed by Syria, then, after the
withdrawal of the Syrian peace force from Lebanon, by Iran. Its objective was
never to « push the Jews into the sea », but on the contrary, it has never
ceased to affirm its intention of establishing equality for all according to
the Law. The Israëli occupation of Lebanon was a reality that massively
surpassed the intentions of the Israëli government, which was overtaken by
General Ariel Sharon’s initiative to seize Beïrut. It was also due to the
Collaboration between the Christian militias and the Lebanese Druzes, including
those of Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblatt.
In
the same way, Syria reacted to Israëli expansionism first of all by defending
itself, then by moving to support the Palestinian populations. This was
perfectly legitimate, given that what are now Palestine and Syria formed a
single political entity before the First World. No-one, not even the United
States, denies that for seventy years, Israël has been stealing land from its
neighbours, and continues to do so.
From the beginning of the
Cold War, the United States, busy with their policy of containment of the
Soviets, were perfectly aware of this Israëli expansionism which upset the stability
of the region. They armed Syria so that it could resist Israël – not attack it
– and also armed other forces, including Iraq [4] . It was Secretary of State John Foster
Dulles, and no-one else, who created the « Axis of Resistance ». In this way,
he guaranteed that Syria and Iraq would not turn to the USSR in order to defend
themselves and to obtain its military assistance.
The Dwight Eisenhower
administration knew that Israël was the fruit of the wishes of Woodrow Wilson
and David Lloyd George [5], but he considered it to be a crazy horse
which had to be both protected and controlled.
Washington
therefore allied itself with the British ideas: the Military Assistance
Programme between Damascus and Teheran, then, in 1958, the Baghdad Pact which
enabled the creation of CenTO (the regional equivalent of NATO). The context
has changed, the actors have changed, but the motives remain the same.
The
case of Iran is the main problem today. Indeed, the majority of its leaders do
not approach this question from a political point of view, but from a religious
standpoint. A Chiite prophecy assures that the Jews will reform a state in
Palestine, but that it will quickly be destroyed. The Supreme Leader of the
Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holds this text to be canon law. He
follows the count-own and affirms that Israël will have disappeared within 6
years (in 2025).
The
growing tension of positions, in Iran concerning this prophecy, and in Israël
concerning the « Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People »
(2018), is the source of the continuation of this conflict, which could be
unblocked with a minimum of intelligence. This is what Donald Trump and Jared
Kushner tried to do, and it is here that they failed: while economic
development might do away with the question of reparations, no progress could
be possible without the evolution of the world visions professed by the Jews,
the Arabs and the Persians.
What is the « Axis of
Resistance »?
The
religious leaders of Iran often use the expression « Axis of Resistance » to
designate the alliance against Israël. Yet there exists no treaty formalising
this axis. The leaders have never held a summit to discuss it.
Since
the US invasion of Iraq, in 2003, the forces of this Axis have slowly split
apart so that today, their internal conflicts have become more important than
their exterior combat.
In
2003, the chief Iraqi Shiite leader, Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, was assassinated.
Rightly or wrongly, his followers believed that the Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani was responsible. al-Sistani is an Iranian living in Iraq, from
whence he directs Shiite seminars. Progressively, the Iraqi Shiite community
has become divided between al-Sistani’s pro-Iranians and the pro-Arabs of the
dead man’s son, Moqtada al-Sadr, who successively broke with Damascus, then
with Teheran in 2017, and then went to Riyadh to side with Prince Mohamed ben
Salman.
In
2006, profiting from its victory during the legislative elections in the
Palestinian Territories, Hamas carried off a coup d’état against the Fatah, and
proclaimed that it was autonomous in the Gaza Strip. In 2012, its political
directors, who were living in exile in Damascus, suddenly moved to Doha, while Qatar
was financing the jihadists against Syria. Hamas declared itself to be the «
Palestinian Branch of the Muslim Brotherhood », a political party which is
forbidden in Syria. Its men and agents of the Israëli Mossad entered the Syrian
city of Yarmouk in order to assassinate their Marxist rivals of the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command. The Syrian army
encircled the town, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas assured them of his
support.
It is
absurd for the Western powers to seek to destroy the « Axis of Resistance »,
which they wanted and created, if only because they have lost control of it.
All they need to do is wait, it will collapse on its own.
The
Iranians are faithful friends, but they have a cultural tendency to drag their
friends into their own affairs. The Syrians have never expelled the Iranians,
who protect them from Israëli expansionism, and to whom they owe their
resistance at the start of the war (2011-14). But if the Iranians were truly
the friends of the Syrians, they would operate a military withdrawal from the
country, leaving it to Russia, so that the United States could recognise the
legitimacy of Bachar el-Assad’s government. Instead of which, they are using
the presence of their troops to provoke Israël and fire rockets from Syria on
Israëli territory.
The three national Security
advisors
John
Bolton (USA), Meir Ben-Shabbat (Israël) and Nikolaï Patrouchev (Russia), the
three national Security advisors, have the same functions, but not the same
experience.
Bolton is persuaded of the
ontological superiority of his country over all others. He acquired his
experience of international relations during the disarmament negotiations, and
above all, while he was the ambassador to the Security Council (2005-06). Although
he can sometimes adopt flamboyant initiatives, he is quite capable of stepping
back when he thinks he is wrong. It is in fact because he has this capacity of
assuming personal responsibility for the errors of his side that President
Trump has maintained him in this function.
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Meir
Ben-Shabbat is a man of faith, persuaded, in his case, that he belongs to a
chosen but cursed people. He is not a diplomat, but an expert in
counter-espionage. However, when he directed the Shin Bet, he showed genuine
finesse in fighting Hamas, manipulating it, and finally negotiating with it.
His excellent knowledge of the multiple forces in the Middle East enables him
to understand instantly what can last and what will fade away.
Finally,
Nikolaï Patrouchev is a lord of the superior Russian public civil service. Of
the three advisors, he is without doubt the man who has the clearest view of
the world chess-board. When he succeeded Vladimir Putin at the head of the FSB,
he had to face up to attempts by the United States and Israël to steal his
directors. In the end, though, after years of turbulence, he was able to regain
control over the FSB machine. He then had to handle the destabilisation of
Ukraine by the United States and the European Union, which was finally
terminated by the adhesion of Crimea to the Russian Federation. He will not be
negotiating one dossier against another, but on the contrary, will take care
that all the decisions taken will be coherent.
These
three strategies will have to define the boundaries of a new deal which will
thereafter be negotiated by diplomats. Their role is to imagine a viable
long-term agreement, while the role of the diplomats will be to compensate the
losses of the vanquished in order to make this agreement acceptable for them.
—
[1] ] I expose my vision of things in Before Our Very Eyes, Fake Wars and Big Lies : From 9/11
to Donald Trump, Progressive Press (2019).
[2] “Billions
of dollars’ worth of arms against Syria”, by Thierry Meyssan,
Translation Pete Kimberley, Voltaire Network, 18
July 2017.
[3] “What
does Avigdor Lieberman know?”, by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Pete
Kimberley, Voltaire Network, 4 June 2019.
[4] Syria and the United States.
Eisenhower’s Cold War in the Middle East, David W. Lesch, Westview
Press (1992)
[5] “Who
is the Enemy?”, by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Roger Lagassé, Voltaire Network, 4 August 2014.
French
intellectual, founder and chairman of Voltaire Network and the Axis for Peace
Conference. His columns specializing in international relations feature in daily
newspapers and weekly magazines in Arabic, Spanish and Russian. His last two
books published in English : 9/11 the Big Lie and Pentagate.
The
articles on Voltaire Network may be freely reproduced provided the source is
cited, their integrity is respected and they are not used for commercial
purposes (license CC BY-NC-ND).