The US military establishment
is gradually waking up to the uncomfortable realization that victory over its
primary enemies is no longer guaranteed:
For the first time in decades, it is possible to imagine the
United States fighting—and possibly losing—a large-scale war with a great
power. For generations of Americans accustomed to U.S. military superiority and
its ability to deter major wars, the idea of armed conflict between great
powers may seem highly improbable. The idea that the United States—with the
most expensive armed forces in the world by a wide margin—might lose such a war
would seem absolutely preposterous. Nevertheless, the possibility of war and
U.S. defeat are real and growing.
Given that U.S. armed forces’ last major conventional combat operations were the massively lopsided victories against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and 2003, many Americans might be wondering how this could come to pass. This report makes the case that one salient issue is that the American way of war—the implicit and explicit mental framework for U.S. military strategy and operations—that coalesced after the Gulf War is no longer valid.
China and Russia have spent almost two decades studying the current American way of war. While the Department of Defense (DoD) has taken its military superiority for granted and focused on defeating nonstate adversaries, China and Russia have been devising strategies and developing new concepts and weapons to defeat the United States in a war should the need arise. They have offset their relative weakness versus the United States by using time and geography to their advantage and by focusing their weapons- and concept-development efforts on finding ways to attack vulnerable nodes in U.S. military operations. The goal of these strategies and concepts is to create a plausible theory of victory whereby China or Russia avoid a “fair fight” with the Joint Force and could therefore defeat the United States and its allies and partners in a regional war. These Chinese and Russian strategies, which once seemed implausible or far in the future, are beginning to pay off. They are shifting military balances in key regions and pushing allies and partners to reconsider U.S. security guarantees.
Given that U.S. armed forces’ last major conventional combat operations were the massively lopsided victories against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and 2003, many Americans might be wondering how this could come to pass. This report makes the case that one salient issue is that the American way of war—the implicit and explicit mental framework for U.S. military strategy and operations—that coalesced after the Gulf War is no longer valid.
China and Russia have spent almost two decades studying the current American way of war. While the Department of Defense (DoD) has taken its military superiority for granted and focused on defeating nonstate adversaries, China and Russia have been devising strategies and developing new concepts and weapons to defeat the United States in a war should the need arise. They have offset their relative weakness versus the United States by using time and geography to their advantage and by focusing their weapons- and concept-development efforts on finding ways to attack vulnerable nodes in U.S. military operations. The goal of these strategies and concepts is to create a plausible theory of victory whereby China or Russia avoid a “fair fight” with the Joint Force and could therefore defeat the United States and its allies and partners in a regional war. These Chinese and Russian strategies, which once seemed implausible or far in the future, are beginning to pay off. They are shifting military balances in key regions and pushing allies and partners to reconsider U.S. security guarantees.
I've been commenting on this for the last few
years, and both Martin van Creveld and William S. Lind have been doing so for
much longer, so it's interesting to see the way in which the establishment is
finally beginning to admit the obvious.
If you look at the
various elements that went into the US victory in the two World Wars and the
Cold War, the most striking observation is that virtually none of those
elements apply anymore. Whether one considers the potential industrial base,
the national demographics, or the geography, it is readily apparent that a) the
United States is in the position of WWII-era Germany and b) China is in the
position of the WWII-era USA.