Over the last decades Russia and Iran both needed
to develop means to protect themselves against an ever growing threat from the
United States and its allies. Both found unique ways to build deterrence that
fit their situation.
Neither the
U.S. nor its allies reacted to those developments by adopting their strategies
or military means. It is only recently that the U.S. has woken up to the real
situation. The loss of half its oil export capacity may
finally wake up Saudi Arabia. Most other U.S. allies are still asleep.
When NATO
extended into east Europe and the U.S. left the Anti-Ballistic-Missile Treaty
Russia announced that it would develop countermeasures to keep the U.S.
deterred from attacking it. Ten years later Russia delivered on its promise.
It had
developed a number of new weapons that can defeat the ballistic
missile defense the U.S. installed. It also put emphasis on its own air and
missile defense as well as on radar and on electronic countermeasures that are so
good that a U.S. general described them as "eye-watering".
All this
allowed Putin to troll Trump by offering him
Russian hypersonic missiles. As we analyzed:
Trump is wrong in claiming that the U.S. makes its own hypersonic
weapons. While the U.S. has some in development none will be ready before 2022
and likely only much later. Hypersonic weapons are a Soviet/Russian invention.
The ones Russia now puts into service are already the third generation. U.S.
development of such missiles is at least two generations behind Russia's.
That Russian
radar can 'see' stealth aircraft has been known since 1999 when a Yugoslav army
unit shot down a U.S. F-117 Nighthawk stealth aircraft. Russian air and missile
defense proved in Syria that it can defeat mass attacks by drones as well as by
cruise missiles. U.S.-made air and missile defense in Saudi Arabia fails to
take down even the primitive missiles Houthi forces fire against it.
Yesterday,
during a press conference in Ankara with his Turkish and Iranian
colleagues, Putin trolled Saudi Arabia(video @38:20) with a similar offer as he had
made to Trump:
Q: Does Russia intend to provide Saudi Arabia with any help or
support in restoring its infrastructure?
Putin: As for
assisting Saudi Arabia, it is also written in the Quran that violence of any
kind is illegitimate except when protecting one’s people. In order to protect
them and the country, we are ready to provide the necessary assistance to Saudi
Arabia. All the political leaders of Saudi Arabia have to do is take a wise
decision, as Iran did by buying the S-300 missile system, and as President
Erdogan did when he bought Russia’s latest S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft system.
They would offer reliable protection for any Saudi infrastructure facilities.
President of
Iran Hassan Rouhani: So do they need to buy the S-300 or the S-400?
Vladimir
Putin: It is up to them to decide.
Erdogan,
Rouhani and Putin all laughed over this exchange.
U.S. allies,
who have to buy U.S. weapons, have followed a similar defense investment
strategy as the U.S. itself. They bought weapon systems that are most useful
for wars of aggression but did not invest in defensive weapon systems that are
needed when their enemies prove capable of hitting back.
That is the
reason why Saudi Arabia has more than 350 modern fighter planes but only
relatively few medium and long range air defense systems that
date back to the 1970s.
The Saudi
air defense is only able to protect certain economic and social centers. Most
of its borders and its military bases are not covered.
[T]he point-defense layout of the network leaves large portions of
the nation undefended by strategic SAM assets. While aircraft can be called
upon to defend these areas if required, the presence of large gaps in the
nationwide air defense picture leaves numerous vulnerabilities open to
exploitation by a foreign aggressor.
Saudi air
defense as documented by Amir at Iran GeoMil.
Moreover the
protection it has in place is unidirectional. The red circles designate the
theoretical reach of the U.S. made PAC-2 air defense systems installed at their
center. But the real reach of these systems only cover less than a half-circle.
The PAC-2 and PAC-3 systems are sector defenses as their radars do not rotate.
They can only see an arc of 120°. In the case of the Saudis those radars only
look towards the east to Iran which is the most likely axis of attack. That
left the crude oil processing plant in Abqaiq completely unprotected against attacks
from any other direction. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. know where the
attack really came from.
The Russian
experience against the U.S. directed drone swarm attacks against
its airbase Hmeymim in Syria showed that short range air defenses and
electronic countermeasures are the best defense against mass drone and cruise
missile attacks.
Saudi Arabia
does not have short range air defenses against drones and cruise missiles because the U.S. does not have such systems.
It also does not have sophisticated electronic countermeasures because the U.S.
can not provide any decent ones.
What the
Saudis need are the Russian Pantsyr-S1 short range air defense, dozens of them,
and the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system. The Russian may
well offer at least the first item. But would the U.S. allow the Saudis to buy
them?
Saudi
Arabia, like the U.S., never took its opponents seriously. It bombed Yemen to
smithereens and never expected to be hit back. It long rallied the U.S. to wage
war on Iran but took few measures to protect itself from an Iranian
counterreaction.
After the
long range attack from Yemen in August it was warned that the Houthi's
missile reach had increased. Saudi Arabia ignored the warning and it took zero
notable measures to protect Abqaiq processing center which is a choke point for
half its income.
Iran, in
contrast, developed its weapons along an asymmetric strategy just as Russia
did.
Iran does
not have a modern airforce. It does not need one because it is not aggressive.
It has long developed other means to deter the U.S., Saudi Arabia and other
opponents in the Middle East. It has a large number of self developed medium
range ballistic missiles and a whole zoo of short to medium range drones and
cruise missiles. It can hit any economic or military target within their 2,000
kilometer reach.
It also
makes its own air defenses which recently enabled it to take down an expensive U.S. drone. Here
is General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of IRGC's Aerospace Force, explaining how that was done (video,
engl. subs).
Iran
developed relations with friendly population groups in other countries and
trained and equipped them with the necessary defensive means. These are
Hizbullah in Lebanon, various groups in the Syria, the PMG/Hashd in Iraq, the
Houthi in Yemen and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
None of
these groups is a full proxy for Iran. They all have their own local politics
and will at times disagree with their big partner. But they are also willing to
act on Iran's behalf should the need arise.
Iran
developed a number of weapons exclusively for its allies that differ from the
ones it itself uses. It enables its partners to build those weapons themselves.
The cruise missile and drones that the Houti in Yemen use are different from the one Iran uses for
its own forces.
New drones and missiles displayed in July 2019 by Yemen’s
Houthi-allied armed forces
Iran has thereby plausible deniability when
attacks like the recent one on Abquiq happen. That Iran supplied drones with
1,500 kilometer reach to its allies in Yemen means that its allies in Lebanon,
Syria and Iraq and elsewhere have access to similar means.
The Saudis have long failed to take Iran's counter
strategy into their considerations just as the U.S. has failed to consider the
Russian's. Both will have to change their aggressive strategies. Both are now
going have to (re-)develop real defensive means.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/how-russian-and-iran-beat-their-opponents-strategies.html#more