In fact, I’m looking at the Gold Standard of official corona virus
figures — from the Johns Hopkins based Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker.
It’s a remarkable piece of work and gives
by far the best display of available data on the world-wide progress of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Without context however, the data it
displays is misleading.
The key question is, “How does a person, verified as
having COVID-19, show up in the data?”
In the early stages — when the number
infected is still managable — there are the folks who are known to have
COVID-19 and those who have come in contact with them and test positive or come
down with the disease.
Barring that, however, someone worried about their symptoms would have
to take themselves to a doctor or medical pro etc. who’s plugged into the
reporting network.
But
suppose they’re not sick enough — or worried enough — to seek a medical
opinion? Or feel they can’t afford the medical system. Or are asymptomatic —
that is, while infected, don’t show symptoms and so don’t know they’re
infected.
And then there’s the
question, “Are such folks contageous?” The estimates I’ve seen
suggest that, yes they are, for the entire incubation period which is thought
to be at least 14 days and possibly as long as 37 days. Also, possibly,
even after recovery.
It’s these folks that make it
clear there are a lot more cases of COVID-19 than show up in the official data
so far. In fact, some scientists estimate that as of March 1, there were as many as 10,000
unrecognized cases in the U.S. How many folks have they unknowingly
infected since then?
This
explains why there’s no centralized way to stop the spread of COVID-19. Which
means it’s up to you to protect yourself and your family as best you can.
Probably the things that help
protect you from the flu will also help head-off COVID-19. In addition to
hand-washing, social distancing, etc., vitamin C and zinc supplements may help.
Also you might look into anti-viral L-lysine suplementation and
possibly short-term echinacea use as well.
If you have children, you
might want to consider that the public health course required of teachers
warned us that public schools are “sumps of infection”
and act accordingly. That’s because the kids bring disease from home to the
schools where it spreads to the other kids who then take it home, etc.
The
sort of good news is that the ratio of deaths to reported cases only takes into
account those who enter the medical system, which is slanted toward the most
ill and misses those unknown less ill cases. Clearly that means the official
death rate mostly reflects what happens to the the worse-off subset of those
infected folks who are actually under observation.
Thus
the over-all death rate of the whole universe of those who get infected with
COVID-19 is likely smaller than the one implied by the official figures so far.
And that puts the official data in context.
Now, if you like conspiracy theories — or even just the truth
— you might find these well-documented articles interesting – – –
Here for updates, additions, comments,
and corrections.
AND, “Like,” “Tweet,” and
otherwise, pass this along!
L.
Reichard White [send him mail] taught physics, designed
and built a house, ran for Nevada State Senate, served two terms on the
Libertarian National Committee, managed a theater company, etc. For the next
few decades, he supported his writing habit by beating casinos at their own
games. His hobby, though, is explaining things he wishes someone had explained
to him. You can find a few of his other explanations
listed here.