Events in the “Broader Middle
East” since 2001 have followed a relentless logic. The current question is
whether the time has come for a new war in Turkey or Saudi Arabia. The answer
depends in particular on the resumption of hostilities in Libya. It is in this
context that the Additional Protocol negotiated by Presidents Erdoğan and Putin
to resolve the Idleb crisis must be interpreted.
19 years of “war without end”
President George W. Bush
decided to radically transform the Pentagon’s missions, as Colonel Ralph Peters
explained in the Army magazine Parameters on
September 13, 2001. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld appointed Admiral
Arthur Cebrowski to train future officers. Cebrowski spent three years touring
military universities so that today all general officers have taken his
courses. His thoughts were popularized for the general public by his deputy,
Thomas Barnett.
The areas affected by the US
war will be given over to “chaos”. This concept is to be understood in the
sense of the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes, i.e. as the absence of
political structures capable of protecting citizens from their own violence
(“Man is a wolf to man”). And not in the biblical sense of making a clean slate
before the creation of a new order.
War Is A Racket: Origi...Butler,
Smedley D.Best Price: $4.72Buy New $3.75(as
of 08:05 EST - Details)
This war is an adaptation of
the US Armed Forces to the era of globalization, to the transition from
productive capitalism to financial capitalism. “War is a Racket,” as Smedley Butler, America’s most
decorated general, used to say before World War II [1]. From now on, friends and enemies will no
longer count; war will allow for the simple management of natural resources.
This
form of war involves many crimes against humanity (including ethnic cleansing)
that the US Armed Forces cannot commit. Secretary Donald Rumsfeld therefore
hired private armies (including Blackwater) and developed terrorist
organizations while pretending to fight them.
The
Bush and Obama administrations followed this strategy: to destroy the state
structures of entire regions of the world. The US war is no longer about
winning, but about lasting (the “war without end”). President Donald Trump and
his first National Security Advisor, General Michael Flynn, have questioned
this development without being able to change it. Today, the Rumsfeld/Cebrowski
thinkers pursue their goals not so much through the Defence Secretariat as
through NATO.
After
President Bush launched the “never-ending war” in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq
(2003), there was strong contestation among Washington’s political elites about
the arguments that had justified the invasion of Iraq and the disorder there.
This was the Baker-Hamilton Commission (2006). The war never stopped in
Afghanistan or Iraq, but it took five years for President Obama to open new
theatres of operation: Libya (2011), Syria (2012) and Yemen (2015).
Two
external actors interfered with this plan.
In 2010-11, the United
Kingdom launched the “Arab Spring”, an operation modeled on the “Arab Revolt”
of 1915, which allowed Lawrence of Arabia to put the Wahhabi in power on the
Arabian Peninsula. This time it was a question of placing the Muslim
Brotherhood in power with the help not of the Pentagon, but of the US State
Department and NATO.
In 2014, Russia intervened in
Syria, whose state had not collapsed and which it helped to resist. Since then,
the British – who had tried to change the regime there during the “Arab Spring”
(2011-early 2012) – and then the Americans – who were seeking to overthrow not
the regime, but the state (mid-2012 to the present) – have had to withdraw.
Russia, pursuing the dream of Tsarina Catherine, is today fighting against
chaos, for stability – that is to say, for the defence of state structures and
respect for borders.
In 2010-11, the United
Kingdom launched the “Arab Spring”, an operation modeled on the “Arab Revolt”
of 1915, which allowed Lawrence of Arabia to put the Wahhabi in power on the
Arabian Peninsula. This time it was a question of placing the Muslim
Brotherhood in power with the help not of the Pentagon, but of the US State
Department and NATO. In 2014, Russia intervened in
Syria, whose state had not collapsed and which it helped to resist. Since then,
the British – who had tried to change the regime there during the “Arab Spring”
(2011-early 2012) – and then the Americans – who were seeking to overthrow not
the regime, but the state (mid-2012 to the present) – have had to withdraw.
Russia, pursuing the dream of Tsarina Catherine, is today fighting against
chaos, for stability – that is to say, for the defence of state structures and
respect for borders.
Colonel
Ralph Peters, who in 2001 revealed the Pentagon’s new strategy, published
Admiral Cebrowski’s map of objectives in 2006. It showed that only Israel and
Jordan would not be affected. All other countries in the “Broader Middle East”
(i.e., from Morocco to Pakistan) would gradually be stateless and all major
countries (including Saudi Arabia and Turkey) would disappear.
Noting
that its best ally, the United States, was planning to cut its territory in two
in order to create a “free Kurdistan”, Turkey unsuccessfully tried to get
closer to China, and then adopted the theory of Professor Ahmet Davutoğlu:
“Zero problems with its neighbours”. It distanced itself from Israel and began
to negotiate peace with Cyprus, Greece, Armenia, Iraq etc. It also distanced
itself from Israel. Despite the territorial dispute over Hatay, it created a
common market with Syria. However, in 2011, when Libya was already isolated,
France convinced Turkey that it could escape partition if it joined NATO’s
ambitions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a political Islamist of the Millî
Görüş, joined the Muslim Brotherhood, of which he was not a member, hoping to
recoup the fruits of the ’Arab Spring’ for his own benefit. Turkey turned
against one of its main clients, Libya, and then against one of its main partners,
Syria.
In 2013, the Pentagon adapted
the “endless war” to the realities on the ground. Robin Wright published two
corrective maps in the New York Times. The
first dealt with the division of Libya, the second with the creation of a
“Kurdistan” affecting only Syria and Iraq and sparing the eastern half of
Turkey and Iran. It also announced the creation of a “Sunnistan” straddling
Iraq and Syria, dividing Saudi Arabia into five and Yemen into two. This last
operation began in 2015.
The
Turkish General Staff was very happy with this correction and prepared for the
events. It concluded agreements with Qatar (2017), Kuwait (2018) and Sudan
(2017) to set up military bases and surround the Saudi kingdom. In 2019 it
financed an international press campaign against the “Sultan” and a coup d’état
in Sudan. At the same time, Turkey supported the new project of “Kurdistan”
sparing its territory and participated in the creation of “Sunnistan” by Daesh
under the name of “Caliphate”. However, the Russian intervention in Syria and
the Iranian intervention in Iraq brought this project to a halt.
In
2017, regional president Massoud Barzani organised a referendum for
independence in Iraqi Kurdistan. Immediately, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran
understood that the Pentagon, returning to its original plan, was preparing to
create a “free Kurdistan” by cutting up their respective territories. They
coalesced to defeat it. In 2019, the PKK/PYG announced that it was preparing
for the independence of the Syrian ’Rojava’. Without waiting, Iraq, Syria,
Turkey and Iran once again joined forces. Turkey invaded the “Rojava”, chasing
the PKK/YPG, without much reaction from the Syrian and Russian armies.
In
2019, the Turkish General Staff became convinced that the Pentagon, having
temporarily renounced destroying Syria because of the Russian presence, was now
preparing to destroy the Turkish state. In order to postpone the deadline, it
tried to reactivate the “endless war” in Libya, then to threaten the members of
NATO with the worst calamities: the European Union with migratory subversion
and the United States with a war with Russia. To do this, it opened its border
with Greece to migrants and attacked the Russian and Syrian armies in Idleb
where they bombed the Al Qaeda and Daesh jihadists who had taken refuge there.
This is the episode we are living through today.
Robin
Wright’s “Reshaping the Broader Middle East” map, published by Robin Wright.
The Moscow Additional
Protocol
The
Turkish army caused Russian and Syrian casualties in February 2020, while
President Erdoğan made numerous phone calls to his Russian counterpart, Putin,
to lower the tension he was causing with one hand.
US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged to curb the Pentagon’s appetites if
Turkey helped the Pentagon restart the “endless war” in Libya. This country is
divided into a thousand tribes that clash around two main leaders, both CIA
agents, the president of the Presidential Council, Fayez el-Sarraj, and the
commander of the National Army, Khalifa Haftar.
Last
week, the UN Secretary General’s special envoy to Libya, Professor Ghassan
Salame, was asked to resign for “health reasons”. He complied, not without
expressing his bad mood at a press conference. An axis has been set up to
support al-Sarraj by the Muslim Brotherhood around Qatar and Turkey. A second
coalition was born around Haftar with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, but
also Saudi Arabia and Syria.
It is the great return of the
latter on the international scene. Syria is the culmination of nine years of
victorious resistance to the Brotherhood and the United States. Two Libyan and
Syrian embassies were opened with great pomp and circumstance on 4 March, in
Damascus and Benghazi.
Moreover,
the European Union, after having solemnly condemned the “Turkish blackmail of
refugees”, sent the President of the Commission to observe the flow of refugees
at the Greek-Turkish border and the President of the Council to survey
President Erdoğan in Ankara. The latter confirmed that an arrangement was
possible if the Union undertook to defend the ’territorial integrity’ of
Turkey.
It was thus on this basis
that President Vladimir Putin received President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the
Kremlin on March 5. A first, restricted, three-hour meeting was devoted to
relations with the United States. Russia would have committed itself to protect
Turkey from a possible partition on the condition that it signs and applies an Additional Protocol to the Memorandum on Stabilization of the
Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area [2]. A second meeting, also of three hours
duration but open to ministers and advisers, was devoted to the drafting of
this text. It provides for the creation of a 12-kilometre-wide security
corridor around the M4 motorway, jointly monitored by the two parties. To put
it plainly: Turkey is backing away north of the reopened motorway and losing
the town of Jisr-el-Chogour, a stronghold of the jihadists. Above all, it must
at last apply the Sochi memorandum, which provides for support only for the Syrian
armed opposition, which is supposed to be democratic and not Islamist, and for
combating the jihadists. However, this “democratic armed opposition” is nothing
more than a chimera imagined by British propaganda. In fact, Turkey will either
have to kill the jihadists itself, or continue and complete their transfer from
Idleb (Syria) to Djerba (Tunisia) and then Tripoli (Libya) as it began to do in
January.
In
addition, on March 7, President Putin contacted former President Nazerbayev to
explore with him the possibility of deploying Kazakh “blue chapkas” in Syria
under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This
option had already been considered in 2012. Kazakh soldiers have the advantage
of being Muslims and not orthodox.
The option of attacking Saudi
Arabia rather than Turkey from now on has been activated by the Pentagon, it is
believed to be known in Riyadh, although President Trump is imposing delirious
arms orders on it in exchange for its protection. The dissection of Saudi
Arabia had been envisaged by the Pentagon as early as 2002 [3].
Missiles were fired this week
against the royal palace in Riyadh. Prince Mohamed ben Salmane (known as “MBS”,
34 years old) had his uncle, Prince Ahmed (70 years old), and his former
competitor and ex-heir prince, Prince Mohamed ben Nayef (60 years old), as well
as various other princes and generals arrested. The Shia province of Qatif,
where several cities have already been razed to the ground, has been isolated.
Official explanations of succession disputes and coronavirus are not
enough [4].
—
[1] “I had 33 years and 4 months of active
service, and during that time I spent most of my time as a big shot for
business, for Wall Street, and for bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a
gangster in the service of capitalism. I helped secure Mexico, especially the
city of Tampico, for the American oil companies in 1914. I helped make Haiti
and Cuba a suitable place for the men of the National City Bank to make a
profit. I helped rape half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit
of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the American bank Brown Brothers
from 1902 to 1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the benefit of
American sugar companies in 1916. I delivered Honduras to American fruit
companies in 1903. In China in 1927, I helped the Standard Oil company do
business in peace.” Smedley Butler in War Is a Racket,
Feral House (1935)
[2] “Additional
Protocol to the Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib
De-Escalation Area”, Voltaire Network, 5
March 2020.
[3] “Taking Saudi out of Arabia“, Powerpoint by
Laurent Murawiec for a meeting of the Defence Policy Board (July 10, 2002).
[4] “Two Saudi Royal Princes Held, Accused of
Plotting a Coup”, Bradley Hope, Wall Street Journal;
“Detaining Relatives, Saudi Prince Clamps Down”, David Kirkpatrick & Ben
Hubbard, The New Yok Times, March 7, 2020.
French
intellectual, founder and chairman of Voltaire Network and the Axis for Peace
Conference. His columns specializing in international relations feature in
daily newspapers and weekly magazines in Arabic, Spanish and Russian. His last
two books published in English : 9/11 the Big Lie and Pentagate.
The
articles on Voltaire Network may be freely reproduced provided the source is
cited, their integrity is respected and they are not used for commercial
purposes (license CC BY-NC-ND).