Every major epidemic has changed the course of history, not necessarily
by wiping out populations, but by provoking revolts and changes in political
regimes. In the panic, we are unable to think and we behave collectively in an
animal-like manner. Many societies have not survived the stupid decisions they
made then.
In
history, the great epidemics that wiped out national economies were almost all
followed by numerous overthrows of the executives. The one at Covid-19 should
be no exception to this rule, no matter how many deaths it may cause. That is
why political leaders around the world are making decisions that they know are
unnecessary, just to show their fellow citizens that they have done everything
in their power.
Social
psychology shows that fear is not proportional to the danger, but to not being
able to assess and control it.
When an unknown disease occurs and there is no telling how many men it
will kill, Science tries to know about it by doubting everything. Politicians,
on the other hand, have to make decisions without knowing more than
researchers. Some politicians therefore surround themselves with people who
have advanced science in the past, appoint them as “experts” on what they do
not yet know, and use them to say how much good they think of their policies. For them, the aim is not to save
lives, but to act to guarantee their Power.
Lockdowns
The
media are trying to convince their fellow citizens that their own Executive has
taken the same measures as the others and therefore cannot be accused of
laxity. They obscure the debate by falsely claiming that 3 billion people are
simultaneously confined for medical reasons. This is an amalgamation of very
different situations and lies about their objectives.
The term “lockdown” is used
today to refer as well:
Quarantine. That is
to say the confinement in an airlock, usually a boat, by customs, until they
are sure not to allow sources of disease to enter the country. This measure was
invented by the Duke of Milan in 1374. This is what Japan did in February with
the liner Diamond Princess.
A sanitary cordon.
It is the isolation of a sick neighbouring country or a sick population group
so that it does not transmit the disease to the rest of the population. Healthy
people are then at risk of being infected by the sick. In the seventeenth
century, Italy and Spain had the army isolate sick population groups, with
orders to shoot on sight if individuals tried to leave. This is what China did
with the population of Hubei.
The confinement of people at
risk. It is the designation of a category of citizens as potentially
sick and its prohibition to meet the rest of the population so that they cannot
be infected, nor infect others. This is what France does, for example, by
prohibiting entry into institutions for the elderly and residents from leaving
them.
Assigning an entire population
to house arrest without distinction. This measure was not required
by infectious diseases doctors, but by statistical epidemiologists in order not
to saturate hospitals with a massive influx of patients in a short period of
time. It has no historical precedent.
Quarantine. That is
to say the confinement in an airlock, usually a boat, by customs, until they
are sure not to allow sources of disease to enter the country. This measure was
invented by the Duke of Milan in 1374. This is what Japan did in February with
the liner Diamond Princess. A sanitary cordon.
It is the isolation of a sick neighbouring country or a sick population group
so that it does not transmit the disease to the rest of the population. Healthy
people are then at risk of being infected by the sick. In the seventeenth
century, Italy and Spain had the army isolate sick population groups, with
orders to shoot on sight if individuals tried to leave. This is what China did
with the population of Hubei. The confinement of people at
risk. It is the designation of a category of citizens as potentially
sick and its prohibition to meet the rest of the population so that they cannot
be infected, nor infect others. This is what France does, for example, by
prohibiting entry into institutions for the elderly and residents from leaving
them. Assigning an entire population
to house arrest without distinction. This measure was not required
by infectious diseases doctors, but by statistical epidemiologists in order not
to saturate hospitals with a massive influx of patients in a short period of
time. It has no historical precedent.
Only
measures to prevent a disease from infecting a territory have sometimes been
successful, as in 1919 in the United States Samoa Islands, which effectively
protected itself from the Spanish flu that ravaged New Zealand Samoa. However,
closing a border is no longer worthwhile when the disease is already present.
However, measures to slow down an
epidemic have never succeeded in lowering the mortality rate.
Worse, by spreading the disease over time, they make the population vulnerable
to a second and then a third wave of contamination, until a vaccine is made
available on a massive scale and requires at least 18 months of preparation.
While populations that refuse to be placed under house arrest gradually acquire
herd immunity that protects them during new waves of contamination. Contrary
to the dominant discourse, current forms of confinement are therefore likely to
increase the number of deaths considerably over time. Since some countries do
not practise these measures, such as South Korea or Sweden, it will be possible
to compare the results when new waves of contamination occur. The
hyper-precautionary policy of political leaders may then backfire.
Decline of civilization
It is
not possible to live together if we are afraid of each other. Civilization
cannot be based on mistrust. It is therefore, for example, not humanly
acceptable to forbid accompanying sick people on their deathbed. We cannot
accept being deprived of our freedom without good reason.
The
European Convention on Human Rights of November 4, 1950, which was signed by
all the states of the European continent from the United Kingdom to Russia,
authorises “lawful detention of a person likely to spread a contagious disease”
(Article 5e), not for the purpose of managing the influx of patients in
hospitals.
The European Union Treaties
raise the bar even higher by stating that the “right of movement of persons” is
part of the EU’s identity. De facto, several member states have placed
themselves outside this fundamental rule, starting the disintegration of the
supranational state.
Some
governments have chosen to turn citizens into enemies. In doing so, they
deprive the state of legitimacy in their regard, since the state also becomes
their enemy.
In
France, the prefect of police in Paris, Didier Lallement, said that the people
who are being resuscitated today are the same people who yesterday violated the
confinement orders.
Already
on another continent, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered his
police to “shoot and kill” any citizen who tries to break the containment rules
before changing his mind.
If
everyone is aware of the exorbitant economic cost of current politics and if
everyone discovers its destructive psychological impact on the weak, few people
are aware of the political bill to come.
Placebo measures
Ignorant of the new disease, medical
and political authorities advocate placebo measures to keep the morale of their
fellow citizens high.
In the seventeenth century, plague
doctors wore a kind of suit made of linen, leather or waxed cloth and a mask
with a long nose which allowed them to breathe through various fumigations of
mint, camphor etc. Invented by the King of France’s physician, it spread
throughout Europe. Today some people also wear plastic or rubber suits against
coronavirus with surgical masks. The wearing of these masks began for the
general public during the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918 in Japan. People’s
confidence was rebuilt by being dressed as Western surgeons. It gradually
became established in Asia and spread to the rest of the world during the
Covid-19 epidemic of 2020. However, never before has the effectiveness of
plague doctors’ suits or surgical suits and masks for all been proven against
an epidemic.
Costume
of a plague doctor. His mask has remained today as an accessory to the Venice
Carnival.
Anyway, by recommending the use of the
surgeon’s suit to protect oneself from the disease, the Chinese medical
authorities, and then the political leaders of the world, are proposing a
solution to a problem that no one can solve at present. The main thing is to
act, not to prevent and even less to treat.
French
intellectual, founder and chairman of Voltaire Network and the Axis for Peace
Conference. His columns specializing in international relations feature in
daily newspapers and weekly magazines in Arabic, Spanish and Russian. His last
two books published in English : 9/11 the Big Lie and Pentagate.
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