Thursday, August 29, 2024

The Housing Problem - by Karl Denninger - especially written for Gen Z

 Read full text: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=251925 

Attempting to maintain the ridiculous valuation bubble will not work.  Prices have to come way down -- that bubble has to be popped, including the tax and insurance aspect of itand young people must be convinced that doing so is not an aberration that will be immediately reversed but that reason will be maintained not just through enough time to create and raise children but during their lifetimes as well so they have reason to believe their children will have an equal or better life than they have.

One of the defining differences in intelligence is that you need roughly a 100 IQ to be able to understand and express, in your daily life, time preference.  That is, to foresee tomorrow and plan for it, including foregoing immediate desires today.  Those who can do that will exert a personal veto nobody can override, those who can't statistically will produce children who cannot maintain or build our infrastructure, nor meaningfully contribute to the tax base and ultimately the veto by those who can do both will collapse our government and society if the policies that lead those 100+ IQ people to issue that veto are not changed.

That we have 20 years of rough sledding ahead cannot be avoided.

Collapse can still be avoided but we must act now because exponential events work both directions and it is entirely possible to get far enough behind the curve that in the coming 20 years, even if you've changed it, too much breaks and society collapses before you can turn the corner.