Sunday, October 12, 2025

'I Know Its Gonna Blow!' - Denninger - (AI gonna go poof! - CL)

 Seriously folks, the OpenAI "investment" into AMD is arguably the most-ridiculous example of this I've ever seen.

OpenAI has never made a single nickel in net profit.  Not one.  They are, thus far, nothing more than a circular money-funneling machine taking "investments" from various places and spending it -- or worse, committing to do so at a scale they cannot actually fund in the present tense.......

Full text:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=254178 

.....Without power an electrically-operated thing is a worthless brick.

As an example the capital cost for a 1GW nuclear plant in the United States is currently estimated to run in the neighborhood of $10 billion cash.  This in turn means that if you're going to build "5 GW" of data center you need to add to the capital expense another $50 billion and that does not include the operating cost, just the construction and presumes you can fund it with cash and do not have to pay interest on the money.

To be able to build that of course you need the revenue and I've seen projections that $2 trillion in revenue would be a reasonable expectation to fund these projects on the board not including the capital cost of the power required for them since nobody is adding that in.  This is some 20 times the current revenue of all AI products combined and roughly 7% of US GDP with all of it spent "on the come" without meaningful contribution to the bottom line.

If you actually believe any of this and are "investing" based on it you deserve to lose every penny you put in -- and further, no firm should be able to claim to be planning to install gigawatt draws on the power grid without also including the capital cost and time to deliver said power generation and transmission within their projections and at their expense.

To do so should be considered securities fraud.