First: Economic cycles are real.
The most-profound ones tend to be of long duration, equal to or beyond a human lifetime, just like geologic and climate cycles. Believing you can interrupt or shape that which is beyond human control is nothing new; indeed the entire premise of throwing virgins into a volcano to prevent it from erupting is exactly the same sort of thing.
You don't believe in that, right?
Good.
Then y'all should be willing and able to prepare for what is inevitable when you drive something out of balance on purpose, as we have and which, I remind you, some people have warned of. Indeed Bernanke, in open testimony, stated quite-clearly in the 2008 timeframe that while he could cushion the effects of the outrageous speculative bubble that popped at that time in cooperation with Congress and the President to increase deficit spending and bail people out that had both a cost and a "use by" date with the latter about 10 years in duration.
Of course the cost part was deliberately not just ignored it was claimed to not exist.......
The "powers that be" may not want that to happen but it is happening. The markets, whether real estate, stocks or mundane and routine businesses like medical care and car dealers don't believe it -- yet -- but they will recognize it eventually simply because facts just are and if they don't adjust they'll go bankrupt and cease to exist. Elon is just one of the more-outrageous examples with his Mars and AI fantasies; he believes a trillion dollars can change a natural cycle. He can no more do so than you can dissipate or materially change the path of a hurricane by detonating a nuclear weapon inside it.
Much of what you see right now in this space -- all the digital surveillance whether its Flock, data mining, "AI", all the crazy "social media" that is degenerating while you watch into a dystopian hellscape full of bots and "curated experience" and the manufactured rage, all the way down to what's going on in both Iran and Ukraine, is all part of the same big picture. When you can't roll it over "one more time" at ever-lower cost and you see it right here in the United States federal interest expense the wailing, gnashing of teeth and cursing leads people to do irrational, outrageously-exploitive and stupid things.
That obviously cannot continue.
Note that its cyclical; the last cycle turned in 1944 higher, and then 1982 downward on rates. It took about 10 years, the average tenor of said debt, to flatten on cost even though the debt amount outstanding was skyrocketing in amount during that time because said debt had to roll over. In real terms that expense went down during the 1990 to 2014/15 timeframe for this very reason but as Bernanke warned the capacity would be absorbed to continue to deficit finance all manner of programs and when it was it would have to stop.
Well, here we are. It did stop in 2019 and then they tried to "reset the table" with the pandemic programs and as you can see that did not work. Its not because they didn't want it to work its because it can't work; the cycle had turned and thus the intervention failed.
Mathematics is never wrong and that above chart cannot be maintained.
The only way to stop it is to reduce to the deficit to less than the expansion of GDP in real terms and when you remove that false support the production that financed it will disappear so in fact you must run a primary surplus large enough to counteract that in order to arrest the vertical climb in federal interest expense.
You cannot evade doing this, or the impact it will have on asset prices, because anything other than doing that results in direct inflationary impact in excess of earnings capacity and you wind up with an ever-increasing percentage of people who quite-literally cannot afford to buy groceries and they will, in turn, refuse to work if it doesn't result in enough renumeration in real terms to survive under reasonable conditions.
All the financing games and price support they have caused is going to come back out and there is no recovering any of that until the cycle turns again which will not occur for another 40 or so years.
That's the math.