The US always seems to underestimate its enemies. And loses because of it. Think: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan. Now, it’s underestimating Russia, China, and Iran.
In that context, Will Schryver on X has something to say.
The USS Teddy Bear Goes to War
As I have been saying for several years now: there are no easy wars left to fight. And the 20th century US military is woefully ill-equipped to fight a 21st century war.
As the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) races towards the war zone in the Arabian Sea, it should be noted that the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) has now been deployed for 225 days. This has already been a very long deployment for a carrier strike group in an active war zone — especially when you consider there are no US bases within thousands of miles of the northern Arabian Sea.
The USS George Washington (CVN-73) departed Norfolk in late April 2024 and arrived at its forward-deployed position in Yokosuka, Japan in November 2024. It has now been 930 days since it left Norfolk.
The Washington departed from Yokosuka on May 23, 2026, and has been deployed 172 days as of today. The Roosevelt is slated to replace the Washington in the war zone.
The Bush, already well into its first deployment extension, will almost certainly depart the Arabian Sea before the end of 2026, and once again make its way around the tip of Africa to return to Norfolk.....
.....Here’s the problem for Trump, given current political conditions in the US and shifts in American public opinion, the Iranians don’t have to defeat a US strike, shooting down a lot American aircraft or disabling a carrier, they have only to knock down one or two aircraft and damage an American ship. The public will not tolerate more American casualties, nor more defeat, however small—not when they are paying “bigly”.
Also, as a my martial arts teacher, used to say, “you win by not losing”. Iran is not losing.
And if Iran goes on to target Israeli infrastructure, as well as infrastructure in the Gulf Oil States, there will be a large increase in energy prices, which will hurt the US economy, now suffering from the AI bubble deflating.
That will mean trouble as soon as the Democrats take over congress in six weeks.
In other words, if he carries out a strike, he needs it to be performative, rather than real and if possible declare victory and withdraw.
One thing to add to this, is that while Iran could create a nuke or two in a week, it needs delivery systems which it may be developing since the restrictions the previous Supreme Leader put on range have been lifted. In addition, Iran has announed it is planning on building nuclear submarines.
No, it is not wise to underestimate the Persians and to overestimate power you don’t have.
Then again, who knows, Trump is increasingly unstable.