§ France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17
million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official
collection of ethnic data is changed.
§ These figures do not take into consideration the Muslim population
that immigrated to France from North Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. There
are a few million of them -- nobody knows how many exactly. For demographers,
their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants
anymore. These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French
citizens born of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics
radar.
From time to time, France's National
Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) offers a glimpse of the
ethnic composition of French society. The study, "Being born in France to an
immigrant parent" (Être né en France d'un parent immigré),
published in February 2017, is one of them.
Like few other glimpses, the Insee study
offers a partial view of the ethnic composition of the French population. A
statistical breakdown -- with the answer to the perennial question: how many
Muslims in France? -- would be perceived as discriminatory and outrageous.
Given France's "integration model," nobody should dare identify
people by their origins, religion, color of skin and so on. A Frenchman is a
Frenchman, whatever the color of his skin or his religion, and any measurement
of the sub-Saharan population -- for example, their level of education, that of
their children, the type of jobs their parents are doing, how many times they
go to mosque or if they have spent time in prison -- is illegal, discriminatory
and racist. Sub-Saharan populations must disappear in aggregate data about
French people.
The study, however, provides some telling
information. In 2015, 7.3 million people born in France had at least one
immigrant parent (11% of the population). Of these 7.3 million people, 45% are
of European origin, most of whom are children of immigrants who arrived in
France from Spain (8%) or Italy (12%) as early as the 1930s, or from Portugal
in the 1970s onwards. One can assume, although it is not written in the study,
that these people are of Christian origin.
Another group is composed of Africans.
42% of the 7.3 million children born in France to an immigrant parent are of
African background, mainly North Africa. They came from Algeria (15%), Morocco
(11%), Tunisia (5%) and sub-Saharan Africa (11%). Although it is also not
specified in the study, it would seem that the great majority are Muslim.
Another group, children from Turkish
migrant families, represent 4% of the 7.3 million. These people are classified
as Asian; they are not included in the African and Muslim group. Most of these
Turks are also presumably Muslim.
A conclusion therefore would assume that
46% of the descendants of immigrants are Muslim and 45% are Christian. The
remaining 9% are from East Asia or the Americas.
Criticizing the limited data of this
study, Michèle Tribalat, a French demographer, published some personal
conclusions in Atlántico, a news website. First, Tribalat expressed her
regrets "not to have the population figures of persons of foreign origin
for two generations". But, she said, it is not so difficult to compile it
one's self.
"If we add the two generations
(immigrants and children of immigrants), this gives a total of 13.5 million, or
20.4% of the population. Thus, we have slightly more than one inhabitant out of
five of foreign origin, across two generations, in 2015".
Asked by Gatestone how she came to the
13.5 million figure, she replied:
"Very simple. I added the 2015
migrant population (6.2 million) to the Insee's 7.3 million children of
immigrants, and it came to 13.5 million."
In her Atlántico article, Tribalat
maintains that more important than the 2015 data picture, is the growth-rate
that led to the 2015 figure. Tribalat calculated her own estimates of this
growth, with starting points in the years 1986, 1999 and 2011, coming up with
figures of a stunningly fast growth for the number of migrants over two
generations: the 13.2 million migrants of 2015 (20.5%; 300,000 that are
"missing" are from French overseas territories), were 12.1 million
four years earlier and 9.8 million in 1999. In other words, 19.2% in 2011 and
16.8% in 1999. The population of French persons of foreign origin would
therefore have increased, when looking at two generations, by 9% between 2011
and 2015 alone.
For the same period, French children born
in France to parents born in France increased by only 2.6%, writes Tribalat.
Consequently, France's population is
increasing significantly only because of immigration. But which immigration?
Christian or Muslim? Tribalat continues:
"I showed that the annual average
rate of increase of immigrants was almost zero between 1975 and 1999. But it is
not the same story from 1999-2015. ... The population of sub-Saharan origin
is the one that grows more quickly. In four years (2011-2015), looking at
two-generations (immigrants and children of immigrants), the sub-Saharan
population seems to have increased by 43%. This population is extremely
young. In 2015, 80% of the children of sub-Saharan immigrants are under 25
years of age". (Author's emphasis)
These conclusions are confirmed by
another Insee study, "Demography of the descendants of immigrants" (Démographie des descendants
d'immigrés), published in 2014.
"The Turkish and sub-Saharan African
population is growing at an extremely rapid rate (which could lead to a
doubling in less than 10 years if this continues).... The total fertility rate
of women born in Turkey is approximately 3, as it is for women born in
sub-Saharan Africa. It is closer to 3.5 for women born in North Africa, while
it is only 2 for women born in Europe, especially in France."
In other words, if the Muslim population
of France can be estimated at around 6 million today, it could grow to 12
million by 2020-2025.
This figure does even not take into
consideration the Muslim population that immigrated to France from North Africa
in the 1960s and early 1970s. There are a few million of them -- nobody knows
how many exactly. They became French very early, and for demographers, their
grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants anymore.
These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French citizens born
of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics radar.
France's Muslim population could quickly
grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law
prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.
These questions are not spoken about
openly in the fierce pre-election presidential debate raging in France. The
question is not politically correct. But in these times of expanding Islamism,
they weigh silently in favor of Marine Le Pen.
Yves Mamou is a journalist and author
based in France. He worked for two decades for the daily, Le Monde, before his retirement.
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Muslim Demographic Future
