Both the USA and Ukraine are desperately trying to find a way to surrender to Russia in a manner that will be permitted by its Clown World puppeteers. One trial balloon was floated last month in The American Spectator:
How does the Ukraine-Russia war end? In an October surprise. Ukraine, which became independent on 24 August 1991, will be dissolved and a New Ukraine will come into being by virtue of a unilateral declaration by the present Government of Ukraine, with the support of the military high command. The de jure boundaries of New Ukraine will reflect and be co-terminus with the territory currently under the de facto administrative control of the present Government of Ukraine. New Ukraine will be compact; cohesive and well-integrated politically, economically, and socially (i.e., ethnically, linguistically, and culturally); and will have demonstrably defensible borders. Accordingly, New Ukraine will have the strategic autonomy to decouple from Russia’s sphere of influence without joining economic and military blocs such as the EU and NATO.
Simply put, from a realpolitik perspective, Russia has achieved its necessary and sufficient vital national security objectives with respect to its southwestern flank by virtue of the earlier takeover and annexation of Crimea and the strategically vital naval base of Sevastopol in March 2014, and the subsequent annexation (September 2022) and conquest (over the February 2022 – May 2023 period) of portions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk provinces to form a robust cordon sanitaire to protect Crimea. (READ MORE from Samir Tata: Coca-Cola Faces a Challenge in Its China Market)
Moreover, per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Russian economy grew by 3 percent in 2023 and is expected to grow by 2.6 and 1.1 percent in 2024 and 2025 respectively, which is comparable to U.S. growth rates over the same period and far better than the economic performance of Germany. The challenge for Russia is to safeguard its hard-won national security gains and have the strategic patience to allow the Government of Ukraine to recognize that pursuing the military path is a dead end.
Clearly, what matters from Russia’s perspective is “which Ukraine” would fall outside the penumbra of the sphere of influence of the Russian Federation. As suggested by Vladimir Putin in his seminal speech in 2008 at NATO’s Summit in Bucharest, Ukraine as it was then constituted would break apart if there was a serious attempt to accept the invitation to join the military alliance. As Putin pointed out in the same speech, the core territories of western Ukraine were carved out of Poland and incorporated into an expanded Ukraine in 1939. Eastern Ukraine (Crimea and the strategically vital portions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk provinces) is now under de facto Russian control. A unilateral declaration of a downsized New Ukraine is unlikely to encounter a Russian objection.
An ‘October Surprise’ From ‘New’ Ukraine Is Possible, THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR, 3 March 2024
This is, of course, absurd. It’s literally the USA’s point of view, which is based on the US military’s need to concentrate on a single front; note that the USA is also attempting to negotiate a surrender to the Yemenese forces that have defeated the US Navy’s attempt to take control of the Red Sea.
The suggestion that the Russians will stop and accept nothing more than what they have already taken by force is obviously only an opening offer; Odessa and its port will obviously be a non-negotiable demand and NATO membership of a militarized “downsized New Ukraine” is an obvious non-starter.
As always, the fundamental flaw can be seen in the false assumptions revealed in the description of the situation. The current war is not just between Russia and Ukraine, or even Russia and NATO, it is between Russia and the masters of Clown World. And those satanic masters apparently believe that if Ukraine falls, they will fall with it. So, they are going to try to fight to the very last European and the very last American in order to save themselves, but neither the Europeans nor the Americans have shown any willingness to fight for Ukraine let alone them.
Furthermore, as Simplicius notes in his April 3rd Sitrep, Ukraine probably doesn’t have until October to make a serious offer of surrender before the Russians are in possession of more than the US trial balloon purports to give them.
Things continue to feel like a calm before the approaching storm. There is not too much overt activity in the battle space, but various rumblings of a large looming escalation continue to trickle through the grape vine. In a recent article I had mentioned how the Western press and elite commentariat for the first time began using the taboo ‘C’ word, i.e. “Collapse”, for Ukraine. Now this has opened up the floodgates, causing more and more worried publications to begin turning off their previous holding-the-line narrative filter and actually start describing the Ukrainian situation with truthful urgency. The U.S. has already emptied almost its entire store of usable surplus mainline weaponry for Ukraine, i.e. tanks, artillery, light armor—not counting things like ammo… even if the $60B were to pass, U.S. has little of actual value to send to Ukraine beyond small arms munitions and things of that nature. There are no more surplus Bradleys left, and none can be built as the factory closed down decades ago.
This highlights the essential danger for a nation accepting foreign rule. Once in control, a foreign elite will unhesitatingly destroy the entire nation over which it rules in order to save itself from the negative consequences of its own actions.
