While
renewables and nuclear power are set to be the world’s fastest-growing sources
of energy through 2040, it’s fossil fuels that will still account for more than
75% of world power production for decades to come. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration’s (EIA) latest international outlook report, which predicts
that global energy consumption will rise by a whopping 28% between 2015 and
2040, with most of the growth driven by rapidly developing Asian nations.
The global energy outlook lays
bare what many politicians and energy sector specialists have long
known to be true but have been wary of saying above a whisper, especially
during the Obama years: coal is here to stay. The numbers – along with major
power installation projects underway domestically and abroad – don’t lie. And
while green activists might wring their hands, this energy outlook in fact
represents a goldmine for the U.S. if we choose the right strategy: one focused
on meeting the needs of developing economies hungry for more energy, and on
investing in clean coal and similar technologies to maximize the efficiency of
our nation’s new plants.
While the liberal media has focused myopically on the one-off
shuttering of certain coal plants as a harbinger of a carbon-free
future, in fact, it’s coal-fired installations that continue to provide the
backbone of electricity generation across the country. In
Michigan, for instance, three nuclear power plants powered 28% of the
state’s net electricity generation last year, but now, up to 10-20% of that
electricity is set to evaporate after the scheduled shutdown of the Palisades
nuclear plant. On top of that, U.S. natural gas production has fallen for the
first time since 2005, certain states have imposed rules on fracking that could
further curtail production, and natural gas prices have shot up by 50% over the
past 14 months. This trend, combined with Michigan’s loss of a key source of
base load power, makes it abundantly clear that coal-fired plants will have to
make up the shortfall. With other states across the country relying on similar
energy mixes -- overall, 19.7% from nuclear, 30.4% from coal, 33.8%
from natural gas, and 14.9% from renewables -- steady and even growing reliance
on coal-fired plants is set to be replicated nationwide.
On top of domestic plans to increase investments in coal-powered
installations, new schemes to supply allied nations with coal are also
underway. In Longview, Washington, theMillennium
terminal, the largest proposed coal export station in North America, is set
to help energy-poor allies like Japan meet their power, national security, and
economic growth needs. Japan has always lacked adequate energy resources and
this shortfall grew even greater after Fukushima and the ensuing suspension of
nuclear energy production. As a result, the government reevaluated the
importance of imported coal to base load power and has emerged as a leader in
the clean coal technology energy space. The government has plans
to build an additional 48 high efficiency, low emissions power plants
and is constructing two advanced gasification-based coal plants near Fukushima.
Fortunately, highly developed economies like Japan have enough
human and financial capital to invest in advanced coal technology projects. But
that’s far from the case for developing countries, which will account for the
bulk in world production and use of coal for the next 20+ years. According to
the EIA, Africa, the Middle East, and other non-OECD Asian states are predicted
to increase coal capacity and generation through 2040, with coal consumption in
those countries growing on average 2.4% per year and accounting for 20% of
total energy use.
Fortunately, a number of these countries, notably India, have seen
the writing on the wall and have started to push for more investment in carbon
capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology to meet their energy needs
more affordably and efficiently. Earlier this summer, the government
announced a new National Mission on advanced ultra supercritical
technologies for clean coal utilization at a cost of $248 million, as well as
the creation of two centers of excellence on clean coal technology. The
government has also been prioritizing
ultra high-efficiency, low-emissions technology, with plans to develop an
800-MW power plant with ultra-supercritical boilers within the next three
years.
But with New Delhi still struggling to bring electricity to the
20% of the public that is off the grid, it will need to collaborate with more
advanced partners to achieve their energy goals. The head of the World Coal
Association already said as much earlier this month when he called
for India to ally with states like the U.S. to clinch cheaper funding
from multilateral development banks to access more efficient technologies.
Here, the U.S. has a golden opportunity to export more American commodities and
know-how and to catch up with the likes of China and Japan, which have both
been pumping
colossal funding into power projects overseas and investing in clean
energy technologies.
Already, a few steps have been taken towards seizing this chance,
with the administration announcing that Washington will use its vote at the
World Bank, where it is the biggest shareholder, to help countries use fossil
fuels more efficiently and access renewable energy sources. But in other ways, the
administration has been falling short. Despite positive words for clean coal,
Trump still hasn’t put his money where his mouth is, threatening
to cut funding for the very department that researches CCUS by 55%. With the administration’s own EIA making it
clear that coal will be on the menu for years to come, the U.S. needs to invest
more in exportable technology to help developing nations gain access to
reliable, affordable sources of base load power -- and to benefit from a market
that is set to explode.
