Iranian President Hassan Rouhani did the right thing going on
television and at least acknowledging popular anger over hard economic times.
Inflation is high at 12% but down from 40% at the start of Rouhani’s first
term. And the recent increase in fuel and food prices by up to 40% has hardly
helped.
That was part of Team Rouhani’s 2018 budget,
which cuts subsidies for the poor – a key feature of the previous Ahmadinejad
administration.
Then there is youth unemployment, which hovers
around the 30% mark. Similar figures recently came out of Spain, a member of
the European Union. Of course, that explains why the bulk of the protesters are
under 25 from working class backgrounds.
What Rouhani should have explained to Iranians in detail is the
direct consequences of hard economic times and United States sanctions, which are
affecting the country.
These were coupled with financial threats
against western firms now back in business, or at least contemplating opening
up operations, in Iran.
Rouhani did promise after signing the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in the
Austrian capital of Vienna in 2015 that it would lead to more jobs and
stimulate the economy.
While that has not been the case, legitimate
protests singling out economic problems have never gone away. In fact, they
have been part of the Iranian picture for decades.
If we consider the Islamic Republic
experiment, a sort of “theocracy with democratic characteristics,” the most
striking element is how deeply rooted it is in the country.
I learned this during my many trips to Iran and it has a great
deal to do with the basij, or voluntary militias. They
have permeated all aspects of social life from unions to student bodies and
civil servant groups.
In this respect, there is a strong similarity
to China, where the Communist Party is embedded in the very fabric of society.
Talking to young people in places such as
Kashan or Mashhad showed me how solid the popular base was behind the Islamic
Republic experiment. It was certainly more thought-provoking than listening to
ayatollahs in Qom.
Still, what is happening now in Iran is that
legitimate protests related to economic hardships have been hijacked by the
usual suspects in a move to influence the minority. After all, Rouhani’s
administration is comparatively liberal compared to the populist Ahmadinejad
government.
So, what we have is a concerted attempt to
turn legitimate protests into a “revolutionary” movement with the aim of
bringing about a regime change. In all practical purposes, this would be civil
war.
Well, it will simply not work. Anyone familiar
with Iran knows the country’s civil society is far too sophisticated to fall
into such a crude and obvious trap.
For a clear take on the foreign influence
angle, you should watch Professor Mohammad Marandi, of the University of
Tehran, an academic of absolute integrity, arguing with a former BBC employee
on the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera television network.
Indeed, what is certain is that foreign
elements are acting as provocateurs to influence the protests. This “whole
world is watching” tone is meant to intimidate Tehran’s response.
Yet there has to be a crackdown against the
violence as Rouhani strongly hinted. Imagine the police response if the level
of violence seen on Iranian streets was happening in France or Germany?
Regime change is unlikely but what is in play
is setting the scene for a further renewal of economic sanctions against Iran.
Possibly, in this case by the EU. Hopefully, it will not fall into this trap.
Anyway, Tehran is already gearing up to
increase business across Eurasia through China’s new Silk Roads, the Belt and
Road Initiative, and the Eurasia Economic Union.
In the end, it is up to Team Rouhani to be
creative in alleviating the burden on the economic front.
The change is unlikely but what is in
play is setting the scene for a further renewal of economic sanctions
