A major summit featuring Germany, Russia,
France and Turkey is on the way – call it an expanded Eurovision
When Russian President Vladimir
Putin, fresh from his star turn at the wedding of Austrian Prime Minister Karin
Kneissl, showed up at the 18th century Meseberg Palace north of
Berlin on Saturday afternoon for a face-to-face with German chancellor Angela
Merkel, that was a surprise of sorts; the meeting had been announced only a few
days earlier.
They talked for three hours over a multi-course menu; the Iran
nuclear deal; the endless stalemate in Ukraine; the humanitarian angle in
Syria; the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Angela Merkel is not part of The Sanctioned supergroup – thus not in
the same league as multi-instrumentalists Putin, Xi, Rouhani and Erdogan. She’s
been only tariffed by solo act Trump, not sanctioned. She’s no Suzi Quatro, not
to mention Joan Jett, although she might entertain
rompin’ across I hate myself /for loving you when facing Putin. She’s
more like a staid back-up singer from Estonia at the Eurovision song
contest.
So no wonder that when the real surprise surfaced at Meseberg, it
bore a vague resemblance to a remixed Eurovision song contest.
As confirmed to Asia Times by diplomatic sources, a top summit
featuring Germany, Russia, France and Turkey is on the way. Call it an expanded
Eurovision – with Turkey included due to (wobbling) NATO membership.
Ostensibly, the summit would be on Syria – according to the
Kremlin. That does not cut it – as Syria is already being discussed in detail
in Astana by Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Yet as The Sanctioned and The Tariffed share the stage, what they
do embody is defiance of solo act Trump. The idea for the one-off top billing
came from the Robert Plant-esque Sanctioned member Erdogan, even with a date
attached – September 7. An ever cautious Merkel only went as far as admitting
the summit “could make sense – this must be well-prepared, so there is no date
yet.”
The fact is multinational sherpas are already working on it. In
parallel, the finance ministers of Turkey and France not only agreed to confront
sanctions on Turkey, but to come up with further bilateral economic
cooperation. Sun King Macron is dying for his star turn at The Tariffed to go
platinum.
I stream,
you stream, we all do Nord Stream
From Russia’s perspective, the very complex game goes way beyond a
revamped Eurovision contest; it’s all about the geopolitical battle in
the intermarium – between the Baltic and the Black
Sea.
Putin was keen to stress the €9.5 billion (US$10.8 billion) Nord
Stream 2 is a “purely economic project”, which does not necessarily imply
transit of gas through Ukraine will stop: “I am aware of the Federal
Chancellor’s position. All that matters to us is that this transit is
economically feasible … and makes economic sense.”
Gazprom – a partner in Nord Stream 2 with other Western European
energy giants – had concluded already by 2015 that a Ukraine transit makes no
economic sense whatsoever. Merkel though – after investing so much in the
Maidan scenario – remains an immovable object; even after Nord Stream 2 is
online, she insists Ukraine “should play its part in gas transit to
Europe.”
Putin is always forced to exhibit Lao Tzu levels of patience
when re-explaining the Ukraine charade: “In the context of the settlement of
the Ukrainian crisis, which, unfortunately, does not make headway at all, we
are inclined to stress the lack of alternative to implementation of the Minsk
agreements, to note our interest in working within the Normandy format and the
contact group, our readiness to continue cooperating with the UN special
monitoring mission.”
Kiev sabotages the Minsk agreements non-stop – and that’s why
there’s “no stable ceasefire,” as even Merkel admits.
So Putin had to revert to the obvious: Nord Stream 2 “will make
it possible to improve the European gas transportation system, diversify supply
routes and minimize transit risks, and, most importantly, to meet Europe’s
growing demand for energy.”
Nord Stream 2 – from Russia along the Baltic Sea bed all the way
to German shores – should be ready by the end of 2019. The new gas pipeline
doubles the capacity of the original Nord Stream and follows the same route.
According to a recent poll, Nord Stream 2 was approved by
66% of Germans. So the Trump solo act dream of having Europeans buying “vast
amounts” of made in USA liquefied natural gas (LNG) now looks as much a mirage
as a Pink Floyd reunion.
I see a
sea and I want it painted black
The Nord Stream 2 angle proved that Putin and Merkel broadly agree
on Baltic geoeconomics. They also agree on preserving the JCPOA, also known as
the Iran nuclear deal. And yet Merkel adds a conditionality that comes straight
from the Beltway: Germany is “following Iran’s activities with
concern, be it the missile program or the situation in Syria.” You can take the
girl out of exceptional tariffs, but you can’t take exceptionalism out of the
girl.
The preferred Syria angle when The Sanctioned meet The Tariffed is
now humanitarian – certainly less contentious than delving on who’s actually
winning the war, why and how.
Putin stressed there are millions of Syrian refugees
in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, “potentially a huge burden” for
Europe: “That’s why we have to do everything to get these people back
home” and restore “basic services” such as healthcare or water
supplies. And “I think that everyone is interested in this, including
Europe.” Merkel agrees.
And then there’s Sanctioned superstar Erdogan and his
unpredictable outbursts: The hammer of the gods / We’ll
drive our ships to new lands / To fight the horde, and sing and cry / Valhalla,
I am coming!
What’s certain for now is that an IMF bailout of Turkey simply
won’t happen; Erdogan can’t possibly sell it to his local audience. Options on
the horizon come down to Qatar – $15 billion in investments already committed –
and China ready to deepen Turkey’s connectivity to the New Silk Roads/Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI).
During the Obama administration, Cold War 2.0 was launched on
Russia by transposing the old Iron Curtain across the intermarium, from
the Baltic to the Black Sea. A post-Maidan anti-Russian Ukraine – which borders
the Black Sea – is a central part of the strategy.
Yet now Turkey provides Moscow with the perfect opening to smash
the geopolitical chessboard and destroy the concerted offensive – which
includes key elements from relentless NATO expansion to sanctions as no holds
barred economic war.
What goes on in Turkey way extrapolates a bunch of European banks
exposed to Ankara’s debt and possible domino contagion of emerging markets. The
heart of the action concerns the Black Sea.
The primary role of an anti-Russian Kiev is to break the expansion
of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). The primary role of Turkey in NATO is to
break Eurasia integration as a whole – especially the complex intersection
between BRI, EAEU and the SCO.
The “moderate rebel” disaster in Syria frustrated the Beltway plan
of blocking Russia out of the Eastern Mediterranean. Crimea reverting back to
Russia frustrated the Beltway strategy of controlling the Black Sea. Even
Eurosivion back-up singer Merkel is starting to get a glimpse of the
complexities inbuilt in the Syria-Ukraine unified front.
The whole mystique of The Sanctioned will develop on how, and if,
they will be able to star in their own right by performing as a supergroup. The
ultimate chess move of the Russian multi-instrumentalist may be to make Turkey
at least indifferent to NATO – and run the Black Sea as a Russo-Turk condo. Can
you hear that Paint it Black groove echoing around the
Kremlin?
