“Pay the soldiers. The
rest do not matter.”
This was the deathbed counsel given to
his sons by Roman Emperor Septimius Severus in A.D. 211.
Nicolas Maduro must today appreciate
the emperor’s insight.
For the political survival of this
former bus driver and union boss hangs now upon whether Venezuela’s armed
forces choose to stand by him or to desert him and support National Assembly
leader Juan Guaido.
Wednesday,
Guaido declared Maduro’s election last May to a second six-year term to be a
sham, and had himself inaugurated as acting president.
Thursday,
the defense minister and army chief General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, with his
top brass, dismissed the 35-year-old Guaido as a U.S. puppet, and pledged
allegiance to Maduro.
Friday,
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the U.N. Security Council: “Now it is time
for every other nation to pick a side. … Either you stand with the forces of
freedom, or you’re in league with Maduro and his mayhem.”
By
Friday, however, the world had already taken sides.
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Russia
and China stood by Maduro, as did NATO ally Turkey, with President Erdogan
phoning his support. Mexico, Nicaragua, Cuba and Bolivia were also with Maduro.
Backing
Guaido are Venezuela’s neighbors Ecuador, Brazil and Colombia, the U.S. and
Canada, and the Organization of American States.
Britain,
France, Germany and Spain have sent Maduro a diplomatic ultimatum: Agree in
eight days to new elections or we back the 35-year-old Guaido, who, until this
year, was an unknown.
All
options are on the table, says President Donald Trump. But Russia called
Guaido’s action a “quasi-coup” and warned that intervention could result in
“catastrophic consequences.” Vladimir Putin also phoned Maduro with his
support.
The
stakes for all sides here are huge. Russia has contractors in Venezuela and has
lent the regime billions. In a show of solidarity, Putin recently flew two
strategic bombers to Venezuela.
China
has loaned Venezuela tens of billions, with Caracas paying Beijing back in oil.
Cuba
has sent military and intelligence officers to maintain internal security. Hugo
Chavez had seen in Fidel Castro a father figure and modeled his new Venezuela
on Castro’s Cuba — with similar results.
Where hundreds of thousands fled
Castro’s revolution in the 1960s, three million Venezuelans have fled to
Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia and other South American countries and the USA.
The
economy is in a shambles. Though Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on
earth, production is a fraction of what it once was. Cronyism and corruption
are endemic. Inflation has destroyed the currency. There is poverty,
malnutrition and shortages of every necessity of modern life.
Yet,
still, the crucial question: What will the soldiers do? And if the military
stands with Maduro, and Maduro refuses to go, what do the Americans do to force
him out?
Invade?
That would invite disaster. Venezuela is not Panama, Haiti or Grenada. Larger
than Texas, its population is more than 30 million. And U.S. forces are already
committed around the world.
A blockade and sanctions would magnify and
deepen the suffering of the people of Venezuela long before they would bring
down the regime. Would our allies support a blockade? And if years of suffering
by the Venezuelan people have not shaken Maduro’s hold on power, what makes us
believe more of the same would persuade him?
Maduro
and his army are being offered amnesty if they peacefully depart. But what
would Maduro’s fate be if he flees?
If
he gives up power under U.S. threat, he is finished and disgraced as a coward.
Would he not prefer to go down fighting?
And
if the leadership of the army should abandon Maduro, there are younger
ambitious officers who would surely see a rewarding future in fighting to save
the regime.
Are
we inviting a civil war in Venezuela? Should the shooting start in Caracas,
what do we do then?
Did
anyone think this through?
Maduro
is an incompetent brutal dictator whose ideology has helped to destroy a
nation. But if he can change the narrative from a confrontation between a
tyrant and his persecuted people to that of an embattled defender of Venezuela
being attacked by Yankee imperialists and their domestic lackeys, that could
resonate among the masses in Latin America.
And
from all indications, Maduro intends to defy the U.S. and rally the radicals
and anti-Americans in the hemisphere and the Third World.
Guiado’s
constitutional claim to the presidency of Venezuela was a scheme cooked up in
collusion with Washington, made in the USA, with Secretary of State Pompeo,
John Bolton and Sen. Marco Rubio signing on, and President Trump signing off.
This was Plan A.
But if Plan A does not succeed, and Maduro,
with America’s prestige on the line, defies our demand that he yield, what do
we do then? What is Plan B?
“Assad
must go!” said Barack Obama. Well, Assad is still there — and Obama is gone.
Will
the same be said of Maduro?
