I’ve
never been much of a gambler. On the rare occasions I’ve played poker, I almost
always came out ahead, but I almost never bluffed and, probably more important,
I always played with amateurs like myself, never with players who really knew
what they were doing.
Of
course, the business of governance is far more important than a friendly poker
game between friends. All the more reason why, when political leaders are
making their assessments as to the national future, they should make sure they
have a winning hand, prior to betting heavily.
Every
day, we’re reminded that the Asian powerhouse is moving ahead at a pace that’s
unheard of in the West. It’s almost as though the clocks stopped in the West
ten years ago, but Asia kept on advancing in every way.
This
is clear to anyone who has had feet on the ground in Asia in recent years. Yet,
every day in the Western media, the illusion is presented that the West is
still running the show, and Asia is a lesser player.
And
of course, whenever an East/West summit takes place, yet nothing substantial is
resolved, the Western media reiterate that Asians have failed again to
understand that, if they want to play ball, they’d better accept the Western
rules and recognize who’s the king of the mountain: the USA.
Here
in South Korea, there’s a very different picture in evidence.
An
illustration of this may be a poker game in which Asia is holding a royal
flush, and the West is holding a pair of deuces but keeps throwing more money
into the pot, repeatedly raising the ante.
In
such a game, the fellow holding the royal flush already knows he’s won. He may
be amazed that his opponent keeps raising what’s in the pot but is happy to
keep matching him. The more patience he has, the bigger his win will be.
His
opponent, of course, is nearing the end of a long run in which he had been a
consistent winner but then spent several decades borrowing in order to keep the
game going.
The
West is nearing the end of that run. The debt bubble is the largest in history
and is overdue to pop.
Continued
borrowing in order to stay in the game has allowed the West to remain at the
table awhile longer, but the writing is on the wall.
Nowhere
is this realisation clearer than here in South Korea.
The
government and people of South Korea are keenly aware that the game has changed
dramatically to their advantage in recent years.
For
generations, they’ve had to accept the position of poor stepsister to Japan, as
the Japanese, with both provocation and assistance from the US, have invaded
and/or repressed their neighbor to the west for over 100 years.
But
for the last 30 of those years, Japan has been in an economic Bermuda Triangle,
unable to move forward economically and unable to take advantage of the Great
Move East in manufacturing.
Although
Japan continues the posture of the dominant neighbour, it now only serves as a
reminder that Japan is not to be trusted, as Korea advances as a producing
nation.
Elsewhere
in Asia, we see the same development. As the West approaches insolvency, Asia
is in the catbird seat. It’s a truism that economy does not allow a void. If
one or more players takes a lesser position in the game, others will always
move to fill the vacancy.
All
of the more productive countries here in Asia are aware that a sea change is on
the verge of taking place. Each Asian country is more preoccupied with how they
can make their own slice of the pie as large as possible than with worrying
over how much of the pie the West will be able to retain.
As
such, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and other countries are ramping up
their ability to produce as quickly as possible.
The
on-the-ground evidence of that sea change is highly visible, and yet, the
Western perception of it is filtered through Western perceptions of reality,
not Asian perceptions.
Unfortunately,
when people in the West are seeking to understand anything Asian, they tend to
make the mistake of talking amongst themselves – westerner to westerner. They
assume that any act by an Asian is undertaken for the reasons that a Westerner
would undertake it.
They
additionally assume that, whatever a Westerner’s priorities would be, they must
be the same for Asians.
Not
so. Asian culture is the world’s oldest, going back some 5,000 years. Their
perceptions about how things work, or should work – society, government,
economics, etc. – are very different from dominant perceptions in the West.
To
understand the course Asians will take in creating their future, we must do so
through their eyes, by understanding their perceptions and outlook.
One
example is the thousands of apartment blocks erected around Seoul in recent
years. Only ten years ago, the outskirts of the city were fields and rice
paddies. Today, they’re the home of major residential developments. All
apartment blocks being erected are at the legal maximum: 30 storeys. A given
development may have over 100 such blocks and be located next to another
development of the same scope.
Presently,
it’s common for 20% or more of the apartments to be empty and, in fact, never
having been lived in. But from the Asian perspective, this is not a problem. In
fact, more are under construction. The Asian concern is not whether every
apartment can be occupied shortly after construction, but rather whether the
pace of construction will meet the need that will exist several years from now,
when the manufacturing boom will be in full swing.
And
indeed, an inspection of manufacturing districts reveals the same thinking: the
construction of factories being built in advance of the need for products to
roll through them.
South
Korean industry fully recognizes that, when the vacuum occurs that will be left
by the West, the window of opportunity will be brief. Within a five-to-ten-year
period, each country in Asia that intends to be a player in the 21st century
will have to have already prepared for its share of business.
When
that time comes, they each intend to have as strong a hand as possible.
They
face an opponent who is, in effect, bluffing with a pair of deuces, in what may
prove to be the game of the century.
Editor's
Note: The battle for who will be the world's top power is playing out right
before our eyes. The rise of China is the biggest challenge the US has ever
faced.
