At the time of writing, Russia’s inevitably devastating response has still not been green-lighted. This is as serious as it gets. Even if it’s true that POTUS was not informed – and that’s what the Kremlin and the security services want to be absolutely sure of before unleashing Hell from Above on Kiev – still the contours will be clear of a NATO op – US/UK – directly conducted by the CIA/MI6 intel combo, with Trump being offered plausible deniability and Ukraine breaking the START protocol big time.
Were Trump to have authorized these strikes, this would constitute no less than a declaration of war by the United States on Russia. So the most probable scenario remains Trump blindsided by the neo-cons embedded in privileged silos scattered across the Beltway.
As much as the attack on the Voronezh-M early warning radar system last May, an attack on Russia’s strategic bombers fits the scenario of increasingly prodding the Russian system to enable disabling it ahead of a nuclear first strike. Aspiring Dr. Strangeloves do entertain this scenario in their wildest dreams for decades.....
So far, the Russian reaction is quite methodical: total silence, a wide-ranging investigation, plus going through the motions in Istanbul.
Yet there’s no question the – inevitable – response will require Maximum Strategy. If the response is in tune with Russia’s own updated nuclear doctrine, Moscow risks losing the Global South’s nearly unanimous support.
If the response is lukewarm, domestic blowback will be massive. There’s a near universal consensus on “Release the Oreshniks”. Russian public opinion is becoming seriously fed up with being the target of serial terror attacks. The hour of fateful decision is getting late.
Which bring us to the ultimate dilemma. Russian power is mulling how to defeat the collective warmongering West without launching WWIII. Inspired by China, a solution may be found via an alliance of remixed Sun Tzu coupled with Lao Tzu. There’s got to be a way – or layered ways – to destroy a strategy-deprived nihilistic enemy’s ability and will to wage endless war.
