.....I don’t know who serves as King Trump’s court advisor on technical matters but anyone who can read the decidedly non-technical Wall Street Journal or Washington Post is able to tell you that having access to some rare earth deposits does not equate to overcoming Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions.
After all, you cannot use rare earth ore to make precision-guided missiles.
Trump’s delusional optimism is akin to some bureaucrat in Beijing announcing China has overcome US semiconductor ban because China has the world’s largest production of silicon (which it does).
Rare earth deposits are not the same as rare earth alloys and magnets – just like silicon is not the same as silicon chip.
Sophisticated processing and refinement are needed to turn raw minerals into usable industrial products – “the vitamins for high tech”.
The US and its vassals control many critical technologies that turn silicon into silicon chips, such as chip design software, chip making machinery, and foundries.
Similarly, China controls the critical technologies involved in the mining, extraction, separation, chemical leaching, refining, alloying and magnet production in the rare earth supply chain.
Rare earth processing and refining are also exceptionally hazardous to the environment as a result of radioactive byproducts and chemical waste. China is the only country that possesses the waste management technologies for the cleanup.
The industry is very capital and energy intensive that requires large upfront investment in purpose-built machinery, special chemical solvents, separation and processing facilities, massive electricity consumption, and highly specialized engineering skills, which are all controlled by Beijing.
China alone has the ability to process and refine all 17 rare earth elements, especially the 11 medium and heavy rare earth elements such as terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium. Heavy rare earth alloys and magnets are critical to advanced military systems such as jet propulsion, radar, laser, sensor, drones, and directed energy weapons.
China’s global market share for heavy rare earth elements (HRRE) is between 98% to 100%. It also happens to possess the largest HRRE deposits, most of which is located in Jiangxi Province.....
Trump is not a particularly acute leader, but he does know how to coerce and twist the arms of those in weak positions. And he gets his way most of the time.
The only exception is China. Beijing doesn’t just produce angry sound bites. It has punched back at the bully. Trump TACOs to China because Xi is stronger and Trump bows to strength.
Beijing has reciprocated every hostile US trade and tech salvos –
- It has put out an “Unreliable List” against US “Entity List”
- It has imposed export control on rare earth in retaliation of chip ban
- It’s imposing export controls in lithium ion batteries and graphite anode in retaliation of US threats on jet engines and computer software
- It has imposed port fee on US-operated and owned ships, fully reciprocal to US measures against Chinese shippers and ship-building industry
- It has stopped buying US farm and energy products from soybean, corn, beef to crude oil and LNG in retaliation of US tariffs
- It has launched anti-trust investigations against Qualcomm and Nvidia in response to the Section 301 investigations against Chinese firms
- It is also dumping US Treasury as the US threatens financial warfare
China is doing all this from a position of strength. China’s economy grew 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2025; its total exports grew 8% despite a 27% decline in export to the US; China’s stock market went up by 34% year to date, double that of the US.
US trade now accounts for less than 10% of China’s export. And there are few things Beijing needs from Washington.
China will generate over a trillion dollar in trade surplus this year. It has the world’s largest foreign reserve at over $3.3 trillion and has the largest gold holdings. The US has $38 trillion in debt.
There are many economic levers Beijing has not even used in the trade war so far –
- Its 60-80% global share in key starting materials (KSM) in drug industry
- Its 40-60% share in active pharmaceutical ingredients (API)
- Its 80% dominance in global generic drugs and over 90% dominance in anti-biotics
- Its leading share in a wide range of critical minerals from graphite, cobalt, aluminum, copper, lithium, to artificial diamonds
- Its leading position in numerous industries and product categories
China’s strengths are built on its role in the global supply chain for critical products modern life relies on.
Trump and his lackeys believe the US can dictate terms to the world because the Americans consumer the most.
But in a world where the nation with the stuff goes to war with the nation with the paper money, guess who will win?
