John Bolton
won. After a short period of calm and talks between the U.S. and North Korea
both sides are again walking towards a conflict. But one important thing
changed.
The recent
talks between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un in Hanoi failed when the U.S. overplayed its hand. In
his New Year speech Kim had already warned that he was ready to take a
"new way" if such a problem would occur. As we wrote:
History shows that North Korea has always gamed out such talks. It
is always prepared to let them fail and it is ready to take the next step
whenever that happens. The "new way" may well allude to some new
weapon that North Korea is ready to test. Cruise missiles are a possible
candidate.
There are no
cruise missiles (yet) but a
satellite launch that is supposed to pressure Trump to come
back to the table:
Commercial satellite imagery from March 6 of North Korea’s Sohae
Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) indicates construction to rebuild
the launch pad and engine test stand that began before the Hanoi Summit has
continued at a rapid pace. Given that construction plus activity at other areas
of the site, Sohae appears to have returned to normal operational status.
There are
also signs of new activity at the Sanumdong missile factory which produces
both, space launchers as well as ballistic missiles.
The U.S.
media turn the upcoming space launch into another scare stories about North
Korea. Quoting the usual anti-Korean 'experts' NBCNews writes:
North Korea is pursuing the "rapid rebuilding" of
the long-range rocket site at Sohae Launch Facility, according
to new commercial imagery and an analysis from the researchers at Beyond
Parallel.
Sohae
Satellite Launching Station, North Korea's only operational space launch
facility, has been used in the past for satellite launches. These
launches use similar technology to what is used for intercontinental ballistic
missiles.
...
"The activity they are undertaking now is consistent with preparations for a test, though the imagery thus far does not show a missile being moved to the launch pad," Victor Cha, one of the authors of the report, said.
...
"The activity they are undertaking now is consistent with preparations for a test, though the imagery thus far does not show a missile being moved to the launch pad," Victor Cha, one of the authors of the report, said.
"The
activity on the ground," Cha said, "shows us that they do have
a (nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile) capability that
is not just developmental, but in the prototype phase. They've already
tested a few of these and it looks like they're preparing the launch pad for
another act."
The highlighted phrases are false. They are war propaganda. Ballistic
missiles use different technologies than space
launchers:
An ICBM requires a short burn-time of the rocket engines in order
to minimize gravitational losses and the risk of early interception in
boost-phase by anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems. The typical ICBM rocket
motor burn time is about 180-320 seconds.
The Unha-3
boost-phase is estimated at to be between 550-570 seconds.
Ballistic
missiles usually have different motors than space launch vehicles. There are
also different structural issues, differences in the control systems, different
launch trajectories. See here, here and here. Most significantly ballistic missiles
need to reenter the atmosphere to deliver their payload. It is only there that
North Korea still has problems using them. Space
launch vehicles are unsuitable to test the reentry phase.
Moreover the Sohae facility has never been used to
launch ballistic missiles. For geographic reasons it is exclusively used for
space launches.
To understand why North Korea is using this
satellite launch to maybe bring the U.S. back to the table we have to go back
to the negotiations between the two parties.
Before the first summit between Trump and Kim in
Singapore both sides agreed that the U.S. would freeze large scale maneuvers in
and around Korea while North Korea would stop ballistic missile testing as well
as nuclear tests. This 'freeze for freeze' agreement was held up
since. Trump recently reconfirmed that no large maneuvers would take place.
North Korea would like to keep the 'freeze for freeze'
agreement alive. A satellite launch is not contrary to that agreement.
Unfortunately some U.S. officials, i.e. John Bolton, and North Korea
hawks like Victor Cha may well want to use a satellite launch to declare it
dead.
The first summit ended with a signed Joint
Statement, a sequenced four step agreement in which the U.S.
promised to lift some sanctions (1) and an end to the state of war (2) while
North Korea commited "to work towards complete denuclearization of the
Korean Peninsula" (3) and to recover remains of U.S. personal killed
during the Korea war (4).
Trump had
asked for and was granted an additional personal favor. Kim promised Trump to
blow up North Korea's nuclear test tunnels and to dismantle a missile engine
test stand. He fulfilled both but is now walking back on the second point.
The U.S. has not fulfilled its side of the bargain.
The Trump administration still demands the "full denuclearization" of
North Korea before the lifting of sanctions. That position contradicts the
Joint Statement. It is also utterly delusional. North Korea never agreed to
and will never agree to completely denuclearize.
The best deal the U.S. can get (pdf) is one
that limits the extend of North Korea's nuclear arsenal and prevents the
proliferation of its nuclear technology. The logic is simple:
North Korea has the bomb. This is how deterrence works. If Saddam
Hussein or Muammar al-Qaddafi had finished their bombs, they’d both likely
still be around.
During the recent summit in Hanoi North Korea offered
to destroy its largest nuclear complex which includes the Yongbyon reactor used
to make plutonium and an uranium enrichment site. As a "corresponding
measure" it demanded the lifting of those sanctions that most directly
hurt its people. But the U.S. side was not willing to take that deal:
With Trump preparing to leave the hotel, North Korean Vice
Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui hurriedly brought the US delegation a
message from Kim, two senior administration officials and a person briefed on
the matter said. The message amounted to a last-ditch attempt by the North
Koreans to reach a deal on some sanctions relief in exchange for
dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear complex.
US and North
Korean officials had been haggling over a shared definition of the sprawling,
three-square-mile [Yongbyon] site and the last-minute overture sought to
advance the North Koreans' proposal for dismantling it. But the message did not
make clear whether the North Koreans shared the US's expansive definition of
the facility and US officials asked for clarity.
Choe rushed
back to get an answer. Kim replied that it included everything on the
site.
But even
when Choe returned with that response, the US delegation was unimpressed and
didn't want to resume the negotiations. Within hours, Trump would be wheels up
for Washington.
"We had
to have more than that," Trump said when asked about Yongbyon before
leaving Hanoi. "We had to have more than that because there are other
things that you haven't talked about, that you haven't written about, that we
found."
The
destruction of the Yongbyon complex in exchange for the lifting of some
sanctions would have been a great deal. The U.S. blew it.
In a press
conference the Foreign Minister of North Korea Ri Yong-ho declared that this was the best deal the
U.S. would get. He said the North Korea expected "corresponding
measures" to be taken by the U.S. in exchange for the destruction of
Yongbyon but that the U.S. was unwilling to offer any.
In a later
interview the Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui accused
the U.S. of moving the goal posts:
"I think about whether (we) should continue talks," she
said, recalling leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's message, in which he said his
regime will be left with no other choice than pursuing a "different
path" to dialogue unless the U.S. takes reciprocal steps.
...
[A]mid the lack of any sign that the U.N. will lift the sanctions, the U.S. has gone too far toward the "reckless assertion" that North Korea should dismantle nuclear and missile facilities, Choe said.
...
[A]mid the lack of any sign that the U.N. will lift the sanctions, the U.S. has gone too far toward the "reckless assertion" that North Korea should dismantle nuclear and missile facilities, Choe said.
She accused
the Trump administration of having moved the goal posts, saying it
initially talked about dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear complex and is now
taking issue with other sites as well.
The U.S. continues to walk away from the Joint
Statement Trump signed in Singapore and is back to making threats:
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned North Korea it
must be willing to completely give up its nuclear weapons program or perhaps
face even tougher sanctions.
“If they’re
not willing to do it, President Trump has been very clear they’re not getting
relief from the crushing economic sanctions that have been imposed on them,”
Bolton told the Fox Business Network on Tuesday evening. “And we’ll
look at ramping those sanctions up, in fact.”
North
Korea never promised to stop its space
launches. It will soon revive them. The U.S., especially John Bolton and other
hawks, will use the upcoming space launch to claim that it is a 'ballistic
missile test' and that the 'freeze for freeze' agreement should thereby end.
New large scale maneuvers will be held to train for the invasion of North Korea
and the U.S. sanctions regime will be further tightened.
A similar
situation already occurred in early 2012. Shortly after Kim Jong-un was formally
declared North Korea's new leader, talks between the U.S. and North Korea were
held in Beijing. In February, on 'Leap Day', the two sides agreed on a deal.
North Korea promises a moratorium on nuclear and long range ballistic missile
tests in exchange for significant U.S. food supplies. A month later North Korea
announces its plans for a space launch. Two weeks later the U.S. stops the
promised food supply. In April North Korea attempts to launch a weather
satellite. The space launch fails, but the U.S. uses it to ramp up UN pressure
against North Korea for its 'ballistic missile development'. Another satellite
launch later that years results in more pressure. In February 2013 North Korea
conducted another nuclear test.
A repeat of
that situation is now highly likely. The U.S. already walked back on the
Singapore Statement Trump signed. It did not accept the quite reasonable offer
made in Hanoi. It rejects to take "corresponding measures" until North
Korea fully denuclearizes which it will never do.
The upcoming
North Korean space launch will be used by Bolton and others to condemn North
Korea for 'ballistic missile' testing. The U.S. will probably declare the
'freeze for freeze' agreement dead and restart its maneuvers. The North will
take "corresponding measures" and restart nuclear and missile tests.
U.S. sanctions will further increase.
We will be
back to the situation of early 2018 when both sides hurled insults against each
other and Trump threatened with war.
But one
important thing will have changed.
During the
latest round China, Russia and South Korea were on the side of the United
States. Now, after North Korea demonstrated that it is reasonable and made good
offers to get to a deal, neither China nor Russia will support further
sanctions. Indeed China already urges to lift sanctions in response to the
"positive will" that North Korea demonstrates.
China is North Korea's biggest trade partner. If it
reopens its border to North Korea trade, all U.S. sanctions are in vain.
By overreaching with his demands the 'great deal
maker' Donald Trump will have lost his biggest negotiation asset, the
international solidarity that held up the sanctions.
As said above:
History shows that North Korea
has always gamed out such talks.
