Donald Trump's campaign, and eventual
election, took most of the attention in these pages as well as in the world.
Nevertheless, some interesting things happened south of the border that
will show up on President Trump's agenda sooner rather than later.
Let's start with Cuba. Fidel
Castro died, and this is the one story most likely to impact President
Trump in 2017.
What will President Trump do with
President Obama's policy toward Cuba? I hope he keeps the U.S.
embassy but immediately takes a stand that the embargo will stay until the
Cuban government changes its ways.
Cuba after Fidel Castro will continue to
be the same economic wreck. It means that President Trump will have all
the cards – the same ones President Obama refused to play.
What happens in Cuba? Raúl Castro
will have to make a choice very soon. Does he reform or keep the failing
show on the air? No one is going to bail him out, and President Trump
should say he is on the side the Cuban people. My guess is that a lot of
Cubans will be happy to hear that.
Down in Mexico, they may hate Mr. Trump,
but they probably despise the surging violence and slow U.S. GDP growth a lot
more. President Trump should sit down with President Enrique Peña-Nieto
and show concern about violence tearing apart areas of Mexico, as we see in
this good post from
Kirk Semple:
In the first
10 months of this year, there were 17,063 homicide cases in Mexico, already
more than last year’s total and the highest 10-month tally since 2012.
The relapse
in security has unnerved Mexico and led many to wonder whether the country is
on the brink of a bloody, all-out war between criminal groups.
You can't have these levels of violence
south of the border without impacting cities north of the border.
These criminal elements are fighting for space and lanes to the customers
up here. They've also turned portions of the U.S.-Mexico border into
lawless areas where they decide who goes north or south.
President Trump will make a lot of
Mexicans very happy when U.S. GDP grows in the 4-6% range. It will do
wonders for a Mexican economy heavily dependent on the U.S. We will buy
more oil, consume more avocados, and visit more of their beaches. They
love a strong U.S. economy in Mexico, as they've told me over and over again.
Down in Venezuela, we are watching a
predictable human tragedy. People are getting more and more desperate, as
we can see by the growth of the black market. Let's meet "los
bachaqueros," and it is not a baseball academy that breeds shortstops for
the Major Leagues. It is the story of Venezuelans turning
to the black market to survive:
President
Nicolas Maduro blames the so-called 'bachaqueros' -- a new class of black
marketeers who resell goods at hugely inflated prices -- for the country’s
problems. His critics say they are in fact a product of his own government’s
inept policies.
Price freezes
and currency controls have given way to alarming shortages of basic goods,
creating interminable supermarket lines of Venezuelans desperate to get their
hands on products like flour or nappies. Many people the Telegraph spoke
to said that, in such conditions, hunger and looting are not uncommon.
Bachaqueros
can sell basic commodities like rice and sugar at $2 and $3 per kilogram
respectively, a great expense for the average Venezuelan on minimum wage. A
family of five can consume up to two kilos of rice per week, spending $16 a
month if they buy it on the black market -- almost half the average
monthly salary.
In
supermarkets the same products are sold under government fixed prices at 900
and 380 bolivares for rice and sugar respectively, less than one dollar. But
endless queues and scarcity of products has forced many to search the black market.
This is horrible. I shared this
article with my mother, and it reminded her of their "black market"
days in Cuba.
Venezuela is not as much a threat to the
U.S. as Cuba or Mexico. However, it is an oil producer, sits next to
Colombia, and could explode at any moment.
Down in Argentina, a center-right
President Macri is a shining light and trying
to reform many of the excesses of the left. He was elected by a
frustrated Argentine middle class that sees a growing bureaucracy that takes
care of only bureaucrats. Does that sound familiar?
Over in Brazil, a "samba" of
political corruption now rivals the Rio carnival. During the year, a
president was impeached, but there is more corruption coming out.
Brazilians call it "Operation
Car Wash," and we hope they wash it all around. Corruption has
been deadly for one of the Top 10 GDPs in the world.
Overall, an exciting year. I believe
there are more big things to happen in 2017. Change is coming to Cuba,
and that's something to look forward to.
Of course, let's not forget all of those
Cubs fans in Latin America who got hooked on the team when WGN carried the
games via satellite.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow
me on Twitter.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/12/headlines_from_latin_america_2016_.html#ixzz4SvoL4orf
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