Denouncing Russian air strikes on Aleppo as
“barbaric,” Mike Pence declared in Tuesday’s debate:
“The provocations by Russia need to be met
with American strength. … The United States of America should be prepared to
use military force, to strike military targets of Bashar Assad regime.”
John McCain went further:
“The U.S. … must issue an ultimatum to Mr.
Assad — stop flying or lose your aircraft … If Russia continues its
indiscriminate bombing, we should make clear that we will take steps to hold
its aircraft at greater risk.”
Yet one gets the impression this is bluster
and bluff.
Pence has walked his warnings back. And
there are few echoes of McCain’s hawkishness. Even Hillary Clinton’s call for a
“no-fly zone” has been muted.
The American people have no stomach for a
new war in Syria.
Nor does it make sense to expand our
enemies list in that bleeding and broken country — from ISIS and the
al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front — to Syria’s armed forces, Russia, Iran, and
Hezbollah.
These last three have been battling to save
Assad’s regime because they see vital interests imperiled should it fall.
We have not plunged into Syria because we
have no vital interest at risk in Syria. We have lived with the Assads since
Richard Nixon went to Damascus.
President Obama, who has four months left
in office, is not going to intervene. And Congress, which has the sole power to
declare war, has never authorized a war on Syria.
Obama would be committing an impeachable
act if he started shooting down Russian or Syrian planes over Syrian territory.
He might also be putting us on the escalator to World War III.
For Russia has moved its S-400
anti-aircraft system into Syria to its air base near Latakia, and its S-300
system to its naval base at Tartus.
As the rebels have no air force, that
message is for us.
Russia is also moving its aircraft carrier,
Admiral Kuznetsov, into the Med. Vladimir Putin is doubling down in Syria.
Last weekend, the Russian Foreign Ministry
warned that U.S. attacks in Syria “will lead to terrible tectonic consequences
not only on the territory of this country but also in the region on the whole.”
Translation: Attack Syria’s air force, and
the war you Americans start could encompass the entire Middle East.
Last week, too, the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs, Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford warned that creating a “no-fly zone” in
Syria could mean war — with Russia. Dunford’s crisp retort to Sen. Roger
Wicker:
“Right now, senator, for us to control all
of the airspace in Syria it would require us to go to war, against Syria
and Russia. That’s a pretty fundamental decision that certainly I’m not going
to make.”
And neither, thankfully, will Barack Obama.
So, where are we, and how did we get here?
Five years ago, Obama declared that Assad
must step down. Ignoring him, Assad went all out to crush the rebels, both
those we backed and the Islamist terrorists.
Obama then drew a “red line,” declaring
that Assad’s use of chemical weapons would lead to U.S. strikes. But when Obama
readied military action in 2013, Americans rose up and roared, “No!”
Reading the country right, Congress refused
to authorize U.S. military action. Egg all over his face, Obama again backed
down.
When Assad began losing the war, Putin
stepped in to save his lone Arab ally, and swiftly reversed Assad’s fortunes.
Now, with 10,000 troops — Syrian, Iraqi
Shiite militia, Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Afghan mercenaries —
poised to attack Aleppo, backed by Russian air power, Assad may be on the cusp
of victory in the bloodiest and most decisive battle of the war.
Assad and his allies intend to end this war
— by winning it.
For the U.S. to reverse his gains now, and
effect his removal, would require the introduction of massive U.S. air power
and U.S. troops, and congressional authorization for war in Syria.
The time has come to recognize and accept
reality.
While the U.S. and its Turkish, Kurdish and
Sunni allies, working with the Assad coalition of Russia, Hezbollah, and the
Iranians, can crush ISIS and al-Qaida in Syria, we cannot defeat the Assad
coalition — not without risking a world war.
And Congress would never authorize such a
war, nor would the American people sustain it.
As of today, there is no possibility that
the rebels we back could defeat ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, let alone bring
down Bashar Assad and run the Russians, Hezbollah, Iran and the Iraqi Shiite
militias out of Syria.
Time to stop the killing, stop the carnage,
stop the war and get the best terms for peace we can get. For continuing this
war, when the prospects of victory are nil, raises its own question of
morality.
