The Rapidly-Gathering Economic Storm - Denninger

 In no particular order: AI - Housing - Energy - Energy Diversity - Data Centers - Food - Fraud - Overextended Valuations......................

Read full text: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255140 

I've long warned of longer-term risks, specifically in places like medical -- and there's an article coming on that, along with some of the "mainstream media" finally noticing.  In fact one of the themes on this page for the last 15 years has been precisely that risk which I identified with plenty of time for most people to do something about it in an attempt to not need medical services as they age.  Of course nobody can ever be 100% sure of anything but if you need something and can't access it you're in serious trouble and might be in "dead-big" style trouble, so you'd think given 10+ years worth of warning people would generally take care of it if they can.

Nope.

I know plenty of people today who are singing "high and happy" songs about their stonk portfolios.  If you're retired or nearly-so and its a small part of your net worth, and in addition anything illiquid is not leveraged (e.g. real estate) then its probably ok -- it might upset you if you lose half or more but it won't really make life hard for you.

On the other hand if that's not true -- if you're 70 years old and 100% "all-in", having based your lifestyle on a $2m+ portfolio that has doubled in the last five or so years and you have a bunch of "must spend" items in your personal financial condition that require being able to draw $100k/year out of that, and the market takes a 50% hit, you're hosed -- in 10 years you're entirely out of money.

Oh by the way if you look at a long-term (e.g. 20 year weekly) chart of the S&P 500 even a 50% hit, down to about 3,500 from the high, does NOT violate the long-term trendline up from the 2009 lows.

Its much worse if you're in the Nasdaq; there the long-term trendline is down around 8400 which is a 65% loss from where it stands today.

And again this does not undercut that trendline and bear markets typically do undercut it, and not by a little.  In fact it is not unusual for a bear market to undercut that long-term trendline by roughly another 50%.

Of course I do not know this will happen again but there has never been a "permanent bull market" that doesn't have this happen from time to time.  Never.  And some of those bear markets have gone on for a decade or longer before recovering and during that entire time you may not invade any of the principal or you have permanently lost the compounding that would otherwise occur.

Is Iran the triggering event?  I have no idea.  

It might be -- and you might also note that MSTR, which a bit more than a year ago traded $543, closed as I am writing this at $138.

That's a 75% loss -- so far.

As the Wheels Come Off the Iran Conflict, It Compels the Decision: ‘Where Do We Stand?’ - (At what point will genuine Americans ask this fundamental question? - CL)

 Weinstein pointed out in his conversation with Tucker Carlson that for some time (since 1961 or 1963), the U.S. system has seemed to be badly broken: It no longer had American interests at heart. In fact, American governance, he argued, visibly had become antithetical to Americans’ real interests – across many spheres, from finance to health. And the state had transformed into an “anti-Constitutional” structure since the events of November 1963 – the exact opposite to what the U.S. was intended to be.

Weinstein attributed this situation to ‘a something’ that is undeclared; something that cannot visibly be observed. It suggested a ‘hidden power structure’ whose control and interests are opaque: “What drives it? Who exactly holds the power in this system. We do not know”, he argued. What were the unseen interests that drove the U.S. to this succession of foreign wars in the Middle East?

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/03/no_author/as-the-wheels-come-off-the-iran-conflict-it-compels-the-decision-where-do-we-stand/ 

The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking. Again - (Unfortunately, if or when we SEE the results.....it'll be too late! - CL)

 Spring has sprung, which means seeds that were planted in late winter are starting to germinate. They’re hungry and will only grow to their full nutritional potential if they’re well fed. But that, apparently, isn’t happening, as fertilizer supplies are interrupted by yet another pointless Middle East war.

The result? Global food shortages that might dwarf the COVID-era Costco-hoarding mess of recent memory. Here’s an overview:

https://rubino.substack.com/p/the-food-supply-chain-is-breaking?publication_id=1166121&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=y7h5a&utm_medium=email 

This is Why We Should Have Gardens…and Gold, Goats, and Guns

Even after the pandemic, many (most?) people in the developed world continue to view “food supply chain disruption” as a tin-foil-hat concern. They’re apparently wrong. Again.

And note that higher food prices are just the first-order effect of a fertilizer shortage. The second and third-order impacts are geopolitical and possibly military.

So let this latest “peak complexity” signal encourage you to keep prepping. Anticipate shortages, higher prices, even more chaotic politics, and take some of the steps we’ve been discussing here.

Solving the Scientific Demarcation Problem I - by Vox Day

 Three foundational problems in the philosophy of science have resisted solution for decades or centuries: the demarcation problem (what distinguishes science from pseudoscience), the underdetermination problem (how to choose between empirically equivalent theories), and the halting-problem analogue for theory confirmation (whether any general procedure can determine if a theory will be confirmed or refuted). This paper demonstrates that the Triveritas, the triadic epistemological criterion requiring the simultaneous satisfaction of logical validity (L), mathematical coherence (M), and empirical anchoring (E), solves all three problems simultaneously using a single architectural mechanism: structurally warranted termination. Scientific theories are modeled as recursive structures whose confirmation chains terminate at base cases dictated by the mathematical structure of the theory itself. The demarcation problem is solved because pseudoscience fails to reach structurally warranted base cases. The underdetermination problem dissolves because competing theories evaluated on three independent dimensions are almost never equivalent on all three. The halting-problem analogue is resolved by the distinction between general undecidability and specific provable termination. No new machinery is introduced. The solutions follow from the existing Triveritas framework applied to the epistemology of science.

Full text:

https://veriphysics.substack.com/p/solving-the-scientific-demarcation?publication_id=8187560&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=y7h5a&utm_medium=email 

Schrödinger's Airport - Vox Popoli - (Understanding why and how you're being censored from REALITY! - CL)

 https://voxday.net/2026/03/24/schrodingers-airport/ 

If you want to know why the Epstein Alliance is losing the war, this is why. Gamma strategists like the kind who run Israel and the USA are so accustomed to lying and bluffing their way to success that they never realize when their tactics have run into the wall of reality. The constant pretense that everything they do is successful and devastating while everything the enemy does is pointless and ineffectual accomplishes nothing except provide them with more time to deceive the public, but sooner or later, people notice things like nonexistent missiles being fired and open, undamaged airports somehow not having any flights landing or departing.

Of course, we’ll get something closer to the truth once the sudden transition from “everything is super fine and peachy” to “we need rescue now” is made. It’s a bit ironic that we’re still supposed to believe that a few hours of a border incursion by light infantry on motorbikes is a massive deal that justifies all manner of genocide and war crimes, but 78 waves and counting of missile barrages that have sent shocks through the entire global economy is nothing.

They Underestimated Iran—Not Just Militarily, But Also Morally and Spiritually, by Kevin Barrett - The Unz Review

How could experts be so wrong? The likely outcome of this war was not exactly rocket science. I am neither an Iran expert (I don’t speak Farsi) nor a military expert, but I’ve been accurately predicting the all-too-predictable course of this kind of war since around 2003, when I learned how Gen. Paul Van Riper led Iran to a stunning victory over the US in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war games exercises. Since then, the more I learned about Iran, the more I realized that actual Iranians would outperform Van Riper if it came to that.

Though I’m no Iran expert, neither am I ignorant. I’ve been interested in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. As a left-leaning anarchist college kid disgusted with the America that had allowed Kennedy’s killers to take over the country unchallenged, I found Khomeini’s project intriguing. When I converted to Islam (tendance Moroccan Maliki-Sufi) in 1993 I became even more sympathetic to Iran’s attempt to implement Islamic values in the political sphere.

In December 2003 I studied 9/11, concluded that the attack on New York and Washington had been a neocon coup d’etat—and realized that Iran, the biggest obstacle to Zionist regional hegemony, was on the chopping block. I revisited my earlier interest in the Iranian revolution, and grew ever-more-sympathetic to its policies and objectives. After a few years combining teaching with 9/11 info-activism, I was driven out of the academy as “that 9/11 truth professor on Fox News,” which left me with nothing better to do than read, speak, and write about the Zio-American war on the Middle East.

https://www.unz.com/kbarrett/they-underestimated-iran-not-just-militarily-but-also-morally-and-spiritually/ 

If there are any brave American soldiers left, they will join Iran’s war on the cowardly [[[Epstein class]]] that occupies what used to be the United States of America. For as more and more observers, including Nick Fuentes, have been saying, Iran is fighting to free America from a soul-crushing foreign occupation. When the Epstein class is finally defeated by a coalition of Iranians and patriotic non-Zionist-owned Americans, let’s all pray that the new leadership—Christians like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens and Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, perhaps joined by a few leftists like Ro Khanna and Jews like Jeffrey Sachs and Max Blumethal—will bring America the kind of confident, restrained, rigorously ethical leadership that Iran has been enjoying since 1979. 

Iran has already won, by Hua Bin - The Unz Review

 Ron Unz says:

March 22, 2026 at 12:38 pm GMT • 2.1 days ago • 600 Words   ↑

I’d strongly second this entire analysis. But I’ll take the liberty of republishing an important comment I’d left a couple of days ago on a different article:

Full text:

https://www.unz.com/bhua/iran-has-already-won/