Economic Facts - Denninger - (Yup - REALITY is a bitch! - CL)

 First: Economic cycles are real.

The most-profound ones tend to be of long duration, equal to or beyond a human lifetime, just like geologic and climate cycles.  Believing you can interrupt or shape that which is beyond human control is nothing new; indeed the entire premise of throwing virgins into a volcano to prevent it from erupting is exactly the same sort of thing.

You don't believe in that, right?

Good.

Then y'all should be willing and able to prepare for what is inevitable when you drive something out of balance on purpose, as we have and which, I remind you, some people have warned of.  Indeed Bernanke, in open testimony, stated quite-clearly in the 2008 timeframe that while he could cushion the effects of the outrageous speculative bubble that popped at that time in cooperation with Congress and the President to increase deficit spending and bail people out that had both a cost and a "use by" date with the latter about 10 years in duration.

Of course the cost part was deliberately not just ignored it was claimed to not exist.......

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255736 

....This world is coming back and neither you or anyone else can stop it from happening.

The "powers that be" may not want that to happen but it is happening.  The markets, whether real estate, stocks or mundane and routine businesses like medical care and car dealers don't believe it -- yet -- but they will recognize it eventually simply because facts just are and if they don't adjust they'll go bankrupt and cease to exist.  Elon is just one of the more-outrageous examples with his Mars and AI fantasies; he believes a trillion dollars can change a natural cycle.  He can no more do so than you can dissipate or materially change the path of a hurricane by detonating a nuclear weapon inside it.

Much of what you see right now in this space -- all the digital surveillance whether its Flock, data mining, "AI", all the crazy "social media" that is degenerating while you watch into a dystopian hellscape full of bots and "curated experience" and the manufactured rage, all the way down to what's going on in both Iran and Ukraine, is all part of the same big picture.  When you can't roll it over "one more time" at ever-lower cost and you see it right here in the United States federal interest expense the wailing, gnashing of teeth and cursing leads people to do irrational, outrageously-exploitive and stupid things.

That obviously cannot continue.

Note that its cyclical; the last cycle turned in 1944 higher, and then 1982 downward on rates.  It took about 10 years, the average tenor of said debt, to flatten on cost even though the debt amount outstanding was skyrocketing in amount during that time because said debt had to roll over.  In real terms that expense went down during the 1990 to 2014/15 timeframe for this very reason but as Bernanke warned the capacity would be absorbed to continue to deficit finance all manner of programs and when it was it would have to stop.

Well, here we are.  It did stop in 2019 and then they tried to "reset the table" with the pandemic programs and as you can see that did not work.  Its not because they didn't want it to work its because it can't work; the cycle had turned and thus the intervention failed.

Mathematics is never wrong and that above chart cannot be maintained.

The only way to stop it is to reduce to the deficit to less than the expansion of GDP in real terms and when you remove that false support the production that financed it will disappear so in fact you must run a primary surplus large enough to counteract that in order to arrest the vertical climb in federal interest expense.

You cannot evade doing this, or the impact it will have on asset prices, because anything other than doing that results in direct inflationary impact in excess of earnings capacity and you wind up with an ever-increasing percentage of people who quite-literally cannot afford to buy groceries and they will, in turn, refuse to work if it doesn't result in enough renumeration in real terms to survive under reasonable conditions.

All the financing games and price support they have caused is going to come back out and there is no recovering any of that until the cycle turns again which will not occur for another 40 or so years.

That's the math.

Hitler, Germany, and the Jews: Context Is Everything Part 3 – The Occidental Observer

 Hitler, the most demonized man in all history, the absolute embodiment of all evil, was adored by his people. Within two years of assuming power, Germany had no more debt or inflation and its currency was solid and stable. After the ordeals of the Treaty of Versailles and the hunger blockade (which killed as many children, women and old people as the Iraqi blockade initiated by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright), the entire German people had regained their pride, dignity, and happiness. It is no exaggeration to say that the good, the true, and the beautiful reigned supreme in the National Socialist kingdom of the pre-war period.[6]

Voted “Man of the Year” in 1938 by Time Magazine, which featured him on its cover in 1936, Hitler was admired by many, including Winston Churchill, who said of Hitler in 1935: “…One may think what one likes about these achievements, but they are undeniably among the most remarkable in the history of the world.”[7]

Even after the war, in 1945, there were still people who could speak well of Hitler. This is notably the case of the future president of the United States, John F. Kennedy, who wrote in his diary:

Within a few years, Hitler will emerge from the hatred that now surrounds him as one of the most significant figures that ever lived. … [H]e had a mystery about him in the way he lived and in the matter of his death that will live and grow after him. He had in him the stuff of which legends are made.[8]

As author Laurent Guyénot points out in his book The Unspoken Kennedy Truth, as a young man,

Kennedy never saw Hitler as an evil man, let alone as a man responsible for WW2. … In 1946, in his book, Profiles in courage, John praised Senator Robert Taft, for having at tremendous personal cost, denounced in 1946, the hanging of eleven Nazi officials as motivated by the ‘spirit of vengeance’ and as ‘a blot on the American record that we shall long regret.’[9].....

https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2026/07/21/hitler-germany-and-the-jews-context-is-everything-part-3/ 

....German elites, and Germans in general, were not thugs or the embodiment of evil. This demonic image was carefully built by Jewish Hollywood and Jewish Britain. Atrocity or Black propaganda started during WW1 and was massively amplified when Hitler came to power. Movies, books, and articles by the Jewish-controlled information outlets spent years stigmatizing Hitler and his people. It hasn’t relented since, and atrocity propaganda of this type is what sustains, in part, Jewish power in the West. Hence, every year, Hollywood produces at least one movie dirtying Hitler and his volk.[10]

If National Socialist Germany wanted Jews to leave the country, no Jew ever had to run away at night, on foot, with his suitcases to get away from the Gestapo. No Jew ever had to hide for months or years in obscure basements or hideouts.[11] Anne Frank’s case, for example, is pure fabulation. She was sent to Auschwitz where she wasn’t gassed or killed, then transferred to Bergen-Belsen where she died of Typhus in a hospital. If Auschwitz was a death camp, why would Germany waste resources transferring and keeping her alive when they could have gassed her on arrival?

Her story lines up exactly with what revisionists say in that many Jews died in concentration camps at the end of the war from the spread of disease and starvation. As such, the diary of Anne Frank, the high priestess in the pantheon of Holocaust martyrs is a fake. “Not a single word in [the diary] contains her truth. It is merely a prison for Annelies’ soul, covered by a thick wall of falsehood in the name of a legend” says Ikuo Suzuki, the author of a new analysis on the Anne Frank fraud, Unmasking Anne Frank. Her Famous Diary exposed as a literary fraud, Clemens & Blair Publishers, 2022. Karl Hamers, who reviewed this book for the August 27, 2022, on-line issue of The Unz Review, states the following about the actual author of Anne Frank’s diary:

The Conflicts Brewing in America's Ten Classes - CHS

 What we do know is that things have internal structures with dynamics that operate whether we “like” them or not.

Correspondent Manoj S. recommended an essay from the always-insightful John Michael Greer on the dissolution of unproductive classes behind the smokescreen of AI: A Game of Musical Chairs

“You can sell Americans on anything, no matter how wretchedly unsatisfactory it is, by labeling it as progress. That’s what’s being done now, with AI being used as a justification for firing useless workers, deleting unnecessary departments, cutting office staff down to scales that actually make sense, and shutting down the classroom-to-cubicle pipeline that once poured new graduates into salary class jobs. We can expect that process to accelerate dramatically in the years ahead.”

Greer begins by laying out a compelling taxonomy of class in America, four self-explanatory classes defined by this question: how do different groups in today’s America get their income?

1. investment class: income from investments (i.e. capital)

2. salary class: income from a monthly salary with benefits

3. wage class: income from an hourly wage with no benefits

4. welfare class: income from welfare programs

Greer argues that the salary class is now the gravitational center of power in the U.S., absorbing much of the national income in unproductive faux-problem-solving for fabricated problems explicitly devised to justify generous salaries and benefits.

The nation can no longer afford this staggeringly costly unproductive work force and so “replacing cognitive work with AI” is the cover story for the mass evisceration of this class, in a parallel to the previous gutting of the factory work force by automation and offshoring.

I’ve been addressing the class taxonomy of the US since 2012, and I’d like to add some commentary on the dynamics Greer so succinctly describes. In America’s Metastasizing Class Wars (August 27, 2020), I laid out ten classes, based not just on sources of income but on several additional criteria:

Systemic Power: political control of the state’s monopoly of force / coercion; financial control of the system’s taxation, incentives and optimizations; corporate control of essential technologies – platforms; corporate-state “soft power” control of cultural, social and intellectual belief structures and sources of influence: media, social media, think-tanks, foundations, the Higher Education Clerisy, etc.

The power to protect bureaucratic-institutional fortresses from budget cuts, transparency and accountability.

Agency: the power to leave employment or a locale and change one’s life; freedom from debt-servitude / employment bondage.

My ten classes: yes, this is more complicated that Greer’s four classes but since power has sources other than income, accuracy demands an accounting not just of income but of power and agency, which is an individual form of power with systemic consequences such as social mobility.Neither Liberty nor Sa...Robert HiggsBest Price: $3.99Buy New $10.00(as of 05:35 UTC - Details)

1. The Deep State. Unelected, unaccountable, they wield state power. Call them if you’re about to be renditioned. But you need either power or relationships to have their number. Relationships are a form of power.

2. The Oligarchs. Top bidders in the auction for political and financial influence. The top .001%. Able to rig the structures of power to serve their private interests.

3. New Nobility. The super-wealthy class just below the Oligarchs. The top .01%. They have the means to serve their private interests via lobbyists and campaign contributions. $10 million in campaign contributions nets $100 million in tax breaks / subsidies.

4. Upper Caste. The technocrat/professional class that manages the Status Quo for the upper classes. This includes wealthy entrepreneurs and owners of enterprises: rich but not rich enough to rig the structures of power to serve their private interests.

5. State Nomenklatura. Well-paid government administrators with ironclad job security and power.

Together, the Upper Caste and the Nomenklatura comprise the upper-middle class. Owners of enough capital (real estate and stocks) to cheer serial credit-asset bubbles. Since I’m doing well, the system is working great.

6. The Middle Class. Wage-earners and salaried employees, owners of traditional sources of financial security: family home, 401K retirement funds, etc. Due to high debt, many qualify as debt-serfs / wage-slaves with minimal agency despite their ownership of middle-class status signifiers.

7. The Working Poor. Households with earned income but it is not sufficient to secure the basics of middle class life. Many qualify for social welfare programs such as food stamps and Medicaid. Due to high debt, many qualify as debt-serfs / wage-slaves with minimal agency.

8. State Dependents. Though often labeled “poor,” those with cash / black-market income often live better than the working poor, due to generous social welfare benefits.

9. Mobile Creatives. Self-employed independents, entrepreneurial sole proprietors with adaptive skills. They may collaborate with other Creatives rather than have employees, and may have part-time conventional jobs. They have mobility between sectors and ways of earning income sufficient to acquire capital / assets. They “own their livelihoods.” Their credo is trust my network, not the corporation or the state.

10. Gig economy precariat. May supplement insecure employment (limited hours, no benefits, etc.) with gig work, may combine cash work with rideshare gigs, may juggle several delivery / eBay sales / rideshare gigs. The difference between precariats and Mobile Creatives is precariats are generally in survival mode (high debt, unreliable income, etc.) and are unable to acquire capital / assets. They “rent” their livelihoods rather than “own” them.Bushcraft 101: A Field...Canterbury, DaveBest Price: $10.37Buy New $7.73(as of 01:25 UTC - Details)

Here is a curated list of my essays on the taxonomy of class in the US:

The Three-and-a-Half Class Society (October 22, 2012)

America’s Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy (April 29, 2014)

What the Global Status Quo Optimizes: Protecting Elites and the Clerisy Class That Serves Them (September 26, 2014)
Explicitly describing what the system optimizes would trigger social instability.

The New Class: Mobile Creatives (May 1, 2014)
The key characteristic of the Mobile Creative class is that they live by this credo: trust your network, not the corporation or the state.

When Belief in the System Fades (March 12, 2008)

Read the Whole Article

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/07/charles-hugh-smith/the-conflicts-brewing-in-americas-ten-classes/ 

The strange death of James V. Forrestal, the first US Secretary of Defense, by Hua Bin - The Unz Review

 Did Israel start its serial assassination campaigns of its American opponents much earlier than we assume?

https://www.unz.com/bhua/the-strange-death-of-james-v-forrestal-the-first-us-secretary-of-defense/ 

The strange death of James Forrestal is a reminder how far Israel has been willing to go to eliminate its perceived threats.

It vindicates researchers like Michael Collins Piper who concludes that Israel murdered President Kennedy to protect its nuclear program.

Many senior US officials opposed Israel’s establishment as they believed it would create regional chaos, which proved prescient.

Israel, from its inception, has been an outlaw and a terrorist state capable of doing anything with the help of US Zionists. This includes the 9/11 false flag attack that triggered US “forever wars” in the Middle East for the benefit of Israel.

Similarly, the strange assassination of Charlie Kirk seems to have Israel’s hand all over it. Is Trump also under Israeli threats to launch the insane war on Iran despite his campaign promises?

As we move into another phase of US’s war on Iran for Israel, it is worth bearing in mind what kind of rogue actor the world is dealing with.

They Are Coming To Take Us Away - Giraldi

 And perhaps not so strangely, it often seems that much of the daily news relates to America’s “best friend and closest ally” Israel. One of the great ironies of the Israel against the rest of the world competition is how the “Torah” Old Testament is regularly being cited by Washington and the national media to justify anything the Jewish state does. That occurs in spite of the fact that Biblical Judea has little in common with the real Israel of today apart from providing an enduring mythology interwoven with the “holocaust” fantasy to sustain the myth of “chosen-ness.” In reality, Judea ceased to exist as an actual nation in 70 AD when the Romans destroyed to include the Second Temple in Jerusalem, of which absolutely nothing physical remains, and forced the Jews to depart. After that, what is now described as Palestine was ruled in various fashions by Rome, Byzantium, Muslim Arabs, Christian Europeans, Mamelukes, Turks, and the British until the politically driven re-creation of a Jewish state in 1948. That means for nearly 1900 straight years there was no such thing as an “Israel” or a Jewish nation and any Jewish presence was marginal in the region where the religion was born. Clearly there was no historical mandate to move a group of foreigners, whose only tie was to a religion that many of them did not actually practice, into a land that those foreigners then began to depopulate of its indigenous inhabitants who had lived in that place under both Christian and Muslim foreign rule for two millennia.

Recent American presidents have certainly tried to make the brutal Israeli suppression and occupation of what was supposed to be a neighbor state called Palestine somehow seem to be something quite acceptable. This is particularly due to the nonsense regurgitated by a group of American fundamentalists that many refer to as Christian Zionists (CZ), best exemplified by the delusional US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. These are folks that revere the Jewish Bible, as one might described it, as “explained” by the nineteenth century Scofield Bible. Huckabee insanely even claims that “Without Israel, without the Jewish foundation, there would not be America.”

Unfortunately for the rest of us, the CZ exist in large numbers in southern and some midwestern so-called Bible Belt states and they vote reliably for congressmen and even presidents who are Israel Firsters. So we get monsters like Texan Ted Cruz, Arkansan Tom Cotton and the recently deceased South Carolinian Lindsey Graham calling the shots on foreign policy. And we get presidents like Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both of whose exceptional loyalty to Israel should have been challenged when they ran for office!

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/07/phil-giraldi/they-are-coming-to-take-us-away/ 

Augmentation, Not Replacement - Vox Popoli

 A Fandom Pulse reader was confused by JDA’s advocacy of Castalia and Infogalactic’s joint Byron AI project:

Is this what I think it is? Is this website, created by an author who writes his own books with his own brain, promoting an AI that will do all the writing for us from now on? What the actual f**k is happening?

The AI doesn’t do everything. Without the human creative spark, it will accomplish nothing. This is more akin to providing battle armor for a soldier, making him stronger, faster, and more deadly. Consider how much faster I have been able to produce both fiction and non-fiction; neither the groundbreaking work demolishing Darwin, Kimura, and Kant would have been published without textual AI. I probably would have eventually got around to writing Probability Zero, especially after becoming aware of the more complete genomic information from the the 2025 study, but would never have gone on to address Neutral Theory and Kimura without the intellectual augmentation provided by AI.

AI is close to worthless without an anchor. That’s why it works so beautifully for translations. That’s why it’s highly effective for non-fiction. But it has no creative spark, and that’s why it can only augment the ideas and stories and experiences that the human element provides. And that’s why the Byron AI project is a positive one, and one worth backing........

https://voxday.net/2026/07/21/augmentation-not-replacement/ 

Don't Fix Your Food Intake, It's In Your Head! Don't be a schmuck! - Denninger

 Some of these obvious things have been known quite-literally for two thousand years.  For example even the Bible references "killing the fatted calf."  How did the calf get fatted?  It wasn't an accident and animal husbandry, all the way back to organized agriculture's dawn, has recognized the method.

Hint: Every feed lot and other means of finishing animals for consumption back to biblical times involved feeding said animals lots of fast carbohydrates in easily-digestible form and unlimited available quantity.  They all lose their regulatory mechanisms and thus get fat -- from the squirrel in your back yard to the cow at the feedlot.  Notice that this does not happen to the cow grazing on grassland, nor the deer and squirrels in the forest.....

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255733 

...But "don't be a schmuck" applies to many other things which we ignore because some "expert" tells us to.  Here are some examples from the foods sold and consumed today by plenty of people:

• Seed oils.  "Corn oil" may sound like, well, natural because its corn, right?  Well, no because of the volume of it you consume when not done by eating actual corn.  To get one tablespoon of corn oil you'd have to consume four to six ears of corn at one sitting.  Nobody would do that, of course, yet one tablespoon of corn oil is a tiny amount.  Canola is a renaming of rapeseed oil (it stands for "Canadian Oil, Low Acid" -- yes, really); rapeseed produces quite a good machine lubricant but it is very high in a substance that is quite-literally poisonous; "neat" it produce lesions in the hearts of animals when fed to them and is roughly as toxic as drinking motor oil out of a jug.  The producers hybridized the crop to reduce the toxic organic components and then, since plenty of people knew it was poisonous and "rape" is a nasty word they changed the name.  While the result has a quite-low amount of that substance today its not zero and we know what the damage is when that substance is consumed!  All of these oils also have a very high Linoleic acid content and as a result all are highly inflammatory, with safflower, sunflower, corn, cottonseed and soybean oils being the worst off the common ones, in that order.  Worse, there is absolutely no reason to believe our metabolism can or has ever adapted to them because absolutely none of these oils can be consumed without machine processing in significant amounts so why would you eat them?  Don't be a schmuck!