Consider the following facts:
- Russia
has withdrawn
elements of its tactical forces in Syria, while leaving most of
its anti-aircraft and strategic air strike capabilities in place.
- ISIS
lost
control of Palmyra to Assad and the Syrian army.
- For
over a month, there have been repeated stories about a joint Saudi-Turkish
alliance preparing to
invade Syria, ostensibly to fight ISIS, but actually to attack
Assad and the legitimate Syrian government.
- The
US government just withdrew
all family members of U.S. troops and diplomats from its
installations in Turkey, ostensibly out of fears of terrorist attack.
- The
NATO treaty requires the USA to defend Turkey if attacked.
- Donald
Trump has, for the first time in decades, raised serious questions, in
public, about US membership in NATO.
- ISIS
is a creation, at least in part of the USA, and the US military made no
serious attempts to defeat ISIS in Syria whereas the
Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance managed to repeatedly defeat ISIS and
drive it back in just 22 weeks of operations.
What does this suggest? I think it indicates that all sides are preparing for a
Turko-Syrian war, which may be a proxy for a US-Russian war in the same
way that the war in the Crimea was. I'm not certain whether the US is
actively on the side of Turkey or if it is washing its hands of what looks like
an increasingly unstable pair of proxies in Turkey and the Islamic State. For
the sake of global stability, I sincerely hope the latter is the case.
There are some indications that the US has wisely decided to stay out of it. Just over a month ago, the American Free Press reported:
There are some indications that the US has wisely decided to stay out of it. Just over a month ago, the American Free Press reported:
Moscow has made it clear to Washington it will retaliate if the
Turks send forces into Syria. Moscow has made it clear to Washington it will retaliate
if the Turks send forces into Syria. The Russians are convinced the Saudis are
pressing Turkey to so something militarily before Russian airpower eliminates
all the extreme Islamic groups the Turks and Saudis have been supporting. The
source says NATO leaders in Europe have told Washington that Turkey and the
Saudis will have to go it alone if they engage Russia.
Also, the fact that the US refused
Turkey's demands that it cut ties with a Kurdish group fighting in
Syria bodes well for avoiding a US-Russian war. The fact that Turkey might also
be facing a civil war in its south may be an important factor in its apparent
decision to get directly involved in Syria before the government forces wipe
out ISIS there.
In any event, the recent withdrawal of Russian and US personnel suggests that things are likely to heat up in Syria soon. It is worth noting, too, that these recent events show how insanely wrong John McCain was to advocate expanding NATO to include Ukraine, as that would have either a) shattered NATO or b) triggered a US-Russian war last year. The fact that the USA appears to be leaving its NATO ally Turkey to go to war on its own tends to indicate the former.
In any event, the recent withdrawal of Russian and US personnel suggests that things are likely to heat up in Syria soon. It is worth noting, too, that these recent events show how insanely wrong John McCain was to advocate expanding NATO to include Ukraine, as that would have either a) shattered NATO or b) triggered a US-Russian war last year. The fact that the USA appears to be leaving its NATO ally Turkey to go to war on its own tends to indicate the former.
