February 07, 2019 "Information
Clearing House" - A day after the U.S. coup attempt in
Venezuela the U.S. game plan was already quite obvious:
The opposition in Venezuela will probably use access to
that 'frozen' money to buy weapons and to create an army of mercenaries to
fight a 'civil' war against the government and its followers. Like in Syria
U.S. special forces or some CIA 'contractors' will be eager to help. The supply
line for such a war would most likely run through Colombia. If, like 2011 in
Syria, a war on the ground is planned it will likely begin in the cities near
that border.
The U.S. is using the
pretext of 'delivering humanitarian aid' from Columbia to Venezuela to
undermine the government and to establish a supply line for further operations.
It is another attempt to pull the military onto the coup plotter's
side:
[I]f
the trucks do get across, the opposition can present itself as an answer to
Venezuela’s chronic suffering, while Mr. Maduro will appear to have lost
control of the country’s borders. That could accelerate defections from the
ruling party and the military.
Dimitris Pantoulas, a
political scientist in Caracas, called the opposition’s aid delivery plan a
high-stakes gamble.
...
“This is 99 percent about the military and one percent about the humanitarian aspects,” he said. “The opposition is testing the military’s loyalty, raising their cost of supporting Maduro. Are they with Maduro, or no? Will they reject the aid? If the answer is no, then Maduro’s hours are numbered.”
...
“This is 99 percent about the military and one percent about the humanitarian aspects,” he said. “The opposition is testing the military’s loyalty, raising their cost of supporting Maduro. Are they with Maduro, or no? Will they reject the aid? If the answer is no, then Maduro’s hours are numbered.”
A New York Times op-ed
by a right-wing former foreign minister of Mexico, Jorge G. Castañeda, details the escalation potential:
According
to Mr. Guaidó and other sources, $20 million in American medicines and food
will be unloaded this week just outside Venezuelan territory in Cúcuta,
Colombia; Brazil, and on a Caribbean island — either Aruba or Curaçao — near
the Venezuelan coast.
Venezuelan military
officials and troops in exile will then move these supplies into Venezuela,
where if all goes well, army troops still loyal to Mr. Maduro will not stop
their passage nor fire upon them. If they do, the Brazilian and Colombian
governments may be willing to back the anti-Maduro soldiers. The threat of a
firefight with their neighbors might just be the incentive the Venezuelan
military need to jettison Mr. Maduro, making the reality of combat unnecessary.
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This escalation strategy
is unlikely to work unless some additional provocation is involved. The
Venezuelan government blocked the border bridge between Cúcuta in Colombia and
San Cristobal in Venezuela. Its military stands ready to stop any violation of
the country's border.
The U.S. responded to the
blocking of the road with a sanctimonious tweet:
Secretary
Pompeo @SecPompeo - 16:55 utc - 6 Feb 2019
The Venezuelan people
desperately need humanitarian aid. The U.S. & other countries are trying to
help, but #Venezuela’s military under Maduro's orders is blocking aid with
trucks and shipping tankers. The Maduro regime must LET THE AID REACH THE
STARVING PEOPLE. #EstamosUnidosVE
The U.S. government,
which actively helps to starve the people of Yemen into submission, is
concerned about Venezuela where so far no one has died of starvation? The lady
ain't gonna believe that.
The
Venezuelan military has shown no sign of interest to change its loyalty. The
fake aid will be rejected.
The government of
Venezuela does not reject aid that comes without political interference. Last
year it accepted modest UN aid which consisted
mostly of medical supplies from which Venezuela had been cut off due to U.S.
sanctions. The UN claimed that around 12 percent of Venezuelans are
undernourished. But such claims have been made for years while reports
from Venezuela (vid) confirmed only some scarcity of specific
products. There is no famine in Venezuela that would require immediate
intervention.
The International Red
Cross, the Catholic church's aid organization Caritas and the United Nations rejected U.S. requests
to help deliver the currently planned 'aid' because it is so obviously
politicized:
"Humanitarian
action needs to be independent of political, military or other
objectives," UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters in New York on
Wednesday.
...
"What is important is that humanitarian aid be depoliticised and that the needs of the people should lead in terms of when and how humanitarian aid is used," Dujarric added.
...
"What is important is that humanitarian aid be depoliticised and that the needs of the people should lead in terms of when and how humanitarian aid is used," Dujarric added.
Rejecting aid out of
political reasons is not unusual. When the hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused
huge damage along the U.S. gulf coast, a number of countries offered
humanitarian and technical aid. U.S. President Bush accepted help from some
countries, but rejected aid from other ones:
An
offer of aid from the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chávez, which included two
mobile hospital units, 120 rescue and first aid experts and 50 tonnes of food,
has been rejected, according to the civil rights leader, Jesse Jackson.
Mr Jackson said the offer
from the Venezuelan leader, whom he recently met, included 10 water
purification plants, 18 power generation plants and 20 tonnes of bottled water.
The
U.S. intent to establish a 'humanitarian aid' supply line into Venezuela has a
secondary purpose. Such aid is the ideal cover for weapon supplies. In the 1980s
designated 'humanitarian aid' flights for Nicaragua were filled with weapons. The orders for those
flights were given by Elliot Abrams who is now Trump's special envoy for
Venezuela.
While the trucks from
Colombia are blocked at the border other 'humanitarian aid' from the United
States reached the country.
Officials
in Venezuela have accused the US of sending a cache of high-powered rifles and
ammunition on a commercial cargo flight from Miami so they would get into the
hands of President Nicolás Maduro's opponents.
Members with the
Venezuelan National Guard [GNB] and the National Integrated Service of Customs
and Tax Administration [SENIAT] made the shocking discovery just two days after
the plane arrived at Arturo Michelena International Airport in Valencia.
Inspectors found 19
rifles, 118 magazines and 90 wireless radios while investigating the flight
which they said arrived Sunday afternoon. Monday's bust also netted four rifle
stands, three rifle scopes and six iPhones.
The pictures show sufficient equipment for an infantry
squad. Fifteen AR-15 assault rifles (5.56), one squad automatic weapon (7.62)
with a drum magazine, and a Colt 7.62 sniper gun as well as accessory
equipment. What is missing is the ammunition.
Where one such weapon
transport is caught multiple are likely to go through. But to run a war against
the government pure weapon supplies are not enough. The U.S. will have to
establish a continuous supply line for heavy and bulky ammunition. That is
where 'humanitarian aid' convoys come in.
Unless a large part of
the Venezuelan military changes sides, any attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan
government by force is likely doomed to fail. The U.S. could use its full military might
to destroy the Venezuelan army. But the U.S. Senate is already quarreling about
the potential use of U.S. forces in Venezuela. The Democrats strongly reject
that.
A
Senate resolution to back Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, once
expected to get unanimous support, has been torpedoed by a disagreement over
the use of military force, according to aides and senators working on the
issue.
...
“I think it’s important for the Senate to express itself on democracy in Venezuela, supporting interim President Guaido and supporting humanitarian assistance. But I also think it should be very clear in fact that support stops short of any type of military intervention,” [Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J.] told NBC News.
...
“I think it’s important for the Senate to express itself on democracy in Venezuela, supporting interim President Guaido and supporting humanitarian assistance. But I also think it should be very clear in fact that support stops short of any type of military intervention,” [Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J.] told NBC News.
It is unlikely that Trump
would order a military intervention without bipartisan support.
The a clandestine
insertion of a mercenary 'guerrilla' force into Venezuela is surely possible.
Minor supply lines can be established by secret means. But, as the war on
Syria demonstrates, such plans can not be successful unless the people welcome
the anti-government force.
Under the current
government most people in Venezuela are still better off than under the
pre-Chavez governments. This lecture and this thread explain the economic history
of Venezuela and the enormous progress that was made under Chavez and Maduro.
The people will not forget that even when the economic situation will become more
difficult. They know who is pulling the strings behind the Random Guy
Guaido who now claims the presidency. They know well that these rich people are
unlikely to better their plight.
U.S.
politicians are making the same mistakes with regards to Venezuela as they made
with the regime change wars on Iraq and Syria. They believes that all people
are as corrupt and nihilistic as they are. They believe that others will not
fight for their own believes and their own style of life. They will again be
proven wrong.
This article was
originally published by "Moon Of Alabama" -
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