Wednesday, May 27, 2020

'Man-made warming' demolished in 500 words - Dr Roger Higgs

“The United Nations IPCC says ongoing warming is due to man’s CO2 emissions, hence ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’ (AGW). The 3 pillars on which they base this claim are unscientific and quickly disproved.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) three pillars of man-made global warming: collapsed
Dr Roger Higgs
Here are the three pillars and the disproofs:
Pillar I. Earth’s average surface temperature and man’s CO2 emissions have both risen since 1850, so CO2 must have caused the warming
Five disproofs …
(1) What else has risen? The Sun’s magnetic output, affecting cloudiness (Svensmark), more than doubled from 1901 to 1991 (Lockwood), to its highest peak in 10,000 years (Higgs 1).
In those last 10,000 years …
(2) simple visual cross-correlation shows changes in temperature lagged 60-160 years behind solar-output changes, due to the ocean’s vast heat capacity and slow mixing (Higgs 1, 2)
(3) … temperature and CO2 were uncorrelated, until their joint rise from the late 1800s.
(4) CO2 is still rising (NOAA), but Earth has cooled since 2016 (Met. Office). Every passing day not ‘warmest ever’ for that date, at multiple sites worldwide, embarrasses the IPCC.
(5) Warming since 1910 paused 1945-75 (30 years) and 1998-2012 but CO2 kept rising.
Pillar II. Global warming’s continuance despite the Sun’s weakening after 1991 absolves the Sun and incriminates CO2
Disproof …
This mismatch is simply due to the oceanic time-lag, currently about 60 years. Thus global warming will continue (with ups and downs, mainly due to the Sun’s 11-year cycles) until around 2050, about 60 years after the Sun’s 1991 grand peak (Higgs 2).
Pillar II was asserted in IPCC’s 2013 ‘Fifth Assessment Report’, Chapter 10 (IPCC 1 p.887, co-author Lockwood [see (1) above], citing 4 of his own papers). But IPPC already knew about the lag, Chapter 3 having stated the “ocean’s huge heat capacity and slow circulation lend it significant thermal inertia” (IPCC 2 p.266).
Pillar III. Sea level (SL) for the last few thousand years varied less than 25cm, so the 30cm SL rise since 1850 proves abnormal warming
by CO2
Disproof …
The 25 cm claim (only “medium confidence”; IPCC 3 p.385) is based on selected evidence (Higgs 3) and on dismissal of the famed 1961 SL curve (Fairbridge; Wiki) with SL oscillations of 2 to 5 metres in the last 6,000 years, confirmed by dozens of later geologists worldwide, and lately with very strong archaeological support (Higgs 4, 5, 6).
1. That’s it. That’s all they have. Be surprised.
2. The Sun was by far the main driver of global temperature for the last 10,000 years.
3. CO2 is innocent; it has no climate effect; the simultaneous rise in temperature and CO2 is pure accident; CO2’s residual ‘greenhouse effect’ is effectively nil (Higgs 7, 8).
4. The IPCC urgently needs to consult geologists (Higgs 9, 10).
5. Another Sun-driven large sea-level rise is predictable (Higgs 11).
Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil Oxford, geology, 1982-86)
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-7
25th May 2020, amended 26-5-2020
All contributions by Higgs (me) are very brief
Please email for copies of any the above,
Question everything