Based on how homeschooling has stacked up so far, a
spike in homeschooling would be a net benefit for kids, their families, and the
country.
There are
about 2.5 million homeschooling children in the United States today, but what
if 8 million more kids start homeschooling in the fall? There is reason to
believe this could happen.
An EdChoice public opinion poll suggests
that more than half of parents with school-age kids have a more favorable view
of homeschooling after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. An unofficial Reason Foundation Facebook poll conducted
by Corey DeAngelis suggests that about 15 percent of children could be making
the switch to homeschooling in the fall. A May 14, 2020 Real Clear Opinion poll of
more than 2,000 registered voters found that as many as 41 percent of parents
are more likely to homeschool this fall.
It seems
certain that parents and students will consider many different “new” options
this year. Parents are thinking twice about sending kids back to schools that
may be forced by the government to administer temperature checks, hand
sanitizer, face masks, social isolation, and staggered classes upon reopening.
In France, some children are
being told to draw six-foot
by six-foot chalk squares where they can “enjoy” recess. In England, some
teachers have suggested “spraying
pupils with disinfectant.” All of this suggests the coming school year will be
anything but “back to school” as usual.
Will There Be a School Exodus?
According to the National Center for Education Statistics,
there are about 57 million school-aged children in the United States. Of these
kids, about 50 million were enrolled in public schools, and seven million were enrolled
in private schools. In 2017, Education Week estimated
that the number of children enrolled in public charter schools was 3 million.
Even using the percentage of
possible “switchers” from the unofficial Reason poll, which is considerably
lower than the more reliable RealClear Opinion poll, results in a whopping 8.5
million more homeschooled students. Adding the 2.5 million current homeschoolers gives
us more than 10 million students homeschooling this fall.
Ten million
kids homeschooling in the United States would be a jump of about 500 percent.
If these polls are even remotely close, we are looking at major shifts that
will have effects rippling all over in interesting and hard-to-predict ways.
For example, with fewer
students in public school, these schools might have fewer teacher positions,
leading to possible staff reductions. Furloughed teachers might find work
tutoring out-of-school kids or land jobs with the new spate of start-ups taking
advantage of increased demand for out-of-school learning opportunities.
Entrepreneurial start-up Outschool is looking to hire 5,000
teachers to meet the new demand.
States seeing
decreased revenue from taxes due to the economic effects of shutdowns might be
glad to see fewer students showing up in the hallways so their government
budgets might be spared some per-pupil funding. Families will bear most of
these costs, which might lead them to put some pressure on policymakers. Tax
credits would be one way to recognize this financial burden. Ten million
homeschoolers equals a total “savings” of about $160 billion at the average
per-pupil funding rate of approximately $16,000.
What Might Homeschooling Mean for
Children?
The 1kids who
would be learning outside traditional schools might find a lot more freedom and
a lot less pressure. They and their parents could choose their own curriculum
and flexible schedules, accomplishing education in a more life-integrated way.
Kids would have more time to play, read, explore their interests, learn at
their own pace, and socialize in healthy ways, with less negative peer pressure
and school-related issues such as bullying.
Some have lamented this
possible increase, worrying that more homeschooling will be bad for children.
But the numbers show that the opposite is more likely true.
The comprehensive literature
from Vanderbilt University’s Dr. Joseph Murphyshows that
homeschooling produces individuals who are at least as well-educated and
well-socialized as their public or private school counterparts. A lot of
research shows even better results. Homeschooling grads are more politically
tolerant than their public or private school counterparts, says Dr. Albert Cheng’s empirical
study. Dr. Lindsey Burke found a majority of research pointing to superior academic outcomes for
homeschooling. Contrary to the assertions of
others that homeschooling is done only by “white conservative Christians,”
the demographics of
homeschooling families are also changing.
Harvard Law
School alum, author, Supreme Court clerk, and homeschool graduate Alex Harris
says, “Education was woven into everything we did in my family. There was
always something to read and talk about around the dinner table. My parents
never seemed to miss an opportunity for instruction. They were particularly
adept at identifying what I was most passionate about, and then using that as a
tool for teaching. … They wanted us to love learning.” What’s not to like
about that?
Who could
have ever imagined we would experience a global pandemic that would put 1.5
billion children in 190 countries out of school? Who would have imagined entire
countries and states would virtually shut down their economies? If that
can happen, why couldn’t 10 million kids be happily homeschooling this fall?
Even if some
or many of the new homeschoolers transition to regular schools when things
return to normalcy, 10 million homeschooled children would have a significant
positive, long-term effect on how America does school. Based on how
homeschooling has stacked up so far, that would be just fine for kids, their
families, and the country.
Michael Donnelly, JD, LL.M.,
is HSLDA Senior
Counsel, Patrick Henry College Adjunct Professor, and a homeschooling parent of
7.
