"The likelihood that the 2020 election will not produce an agreed winner, barring effective active measures from Trump, is nearly certain. Based on the Northop/Standard model, Trump has an over 90% chance at winning an election if following the rules in place in the past dozen election cycles. This explains why the DNC has introduced as many X factors as possible – a politicized Covid-19 response, slanted news which riles up reliable protest movement assets towards rioting and looting, and a mailed-out ballots scheme which is indistinguishable in effect from known problem vote riggings techniques like ballot harvesting."
Our early August prognosis published by SCF on August 23rd, that Joe Biden would not concede the election even if Trump wins, was confirmed by Hillary Clinton herself on August 25th .
This
piece will follow up on the strategy involved in that piece, and develop these
in light of John Podesta’s election war-game and the situation in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
In the Kenosha situation, we have armed groups on both sides, creating a
volatile situation in what increasingly looks like a pre-civil war scenario.
All together, we can now see the following is evident:
Joe
Biden’s 2020 presidential bid now depends on a combination of a.) severe
social media and search engine censorship of book-burning proportions, b.) signs
from the military that they will back Biden (per John Podesta ) on the heels
of c.) an inconclusive election (mailed-out blank ballots),
and d.) (the Soros wing of) BLM’s ability engage in rioting
and to pose as Trump-like supporters (QAnon and adjacent, such as ‘Save The
Children’) in order to e.) conduct a dangerous or illegal
public stunt (false flag).
Trump’s
deep campaign has revolved around Christian, Gnostic, and New Age themes, which
(with regard to the latter two) intersect themes of spirituality previously in
the domain of the coastal left. These will form the substrate of a focus on
this election being a contest of Good vs. Evil, of Light vs. Dark, of the
champions of children against sexual predators, as well as anti-war and
anti-vax themes; wherein ‘war mongers’ like ‘Hillary Clinton’, alleged child
abusers like ‘John Podesta’, and regulatory capturers of healthcare like ‘Bill
Gates’, serve as anthropomorphic reifications of unadulterated evil.
This
is a novel phenomenon, and does not represent pre-Trump Republican tropes and
organizing issues. Mainstream Republican tropes were represented at the RNC
convention, and work to establish a continuity – even if ill fitted – between
traditional conservatism (previously opposed to Trump) and Trump’s hardcore
base.
The Coup – Color Revolution and Arab Spring
Past
political contests after the assassination of Kennedy appear to be based upon a
consensus on key issues on international relations among elected officials,
because the permanent administration had consensus on these themselves. But the
rise of Trump, and the great lengths a part of the permanent administration has
gone to frustrate his efforts, strongly indicate that there is now a political
crisis and division so great, at the level of leadership, that all the
soft-power and coup methods (used by the CIA abroad) are now being used within
the U.S. against the executive branch.
A
part of this permanent administration appears to back Trump, or rather Trump
appears to be ‘their candidate’, and this may well in part explain his
electoral success in 2016 despite what appeared as overwhelming odds to the
contrary.
Perhaps
the most visible permutation of this division and crisis were events in the
deserts of Syria and Iraq, where Pentagon backed Kurdish YPG forces fought
against CIA backed ISIS forces, with Americans in the employ of these
institutions embedded on either side, firing at each other and taking losses.
It would make sense that to military intelligence, such an incoherent and
openly corrosive dynamic would need to be finally headed off.
Therefore,
all of the lessons drawn from the Color Revolution, Fourth Generational Warfare
(4GW), counter-insurgency and hybrid warfare, learned in our study of the
events of Yugoslavia, Occupy Wall Street, BLM, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Ukraine,
Brazil, Venezuela and lately Belarus, all become necessary reading in order to
understand the absolutely destabilized position that the U.S. finds itself in
as we approach the 2020 election.
We
should expect, in line with the color-springs tactic, that police will engage
in the killings of black men, orchestrated by police secret societies operating
on behest of the permanent administration (known colloquially and hereafter as
the ‘deep state’). These will be timed in such a way for maximum utility with
regard to high/low points in the campaigns of the two candidates.
Kenosha On Fire
Such
an incident just occurred on August 23rd in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in the
shooting of a black man, Jacob Blake. Standard and divisive motifs followed:
the event was not clear cut, and definitive aspects of the case are open to
interpretation and subject to confirmation bias in the public’s eye. This will
provoke reaction and polarization, with the nuances and facts of the situation
and its context often traded in for political expedience. Pro law enforcement
types more closely associated with conservative politics will say the shooting
was justified prior to a hearing of the facts, and will include biographical
information about Blake which demonstrates his past criminal offenses, while
ignoring that these past offenses do not form the basis for legitimizing a
‘summary execution’. Likewise, anti-police liberals will condemn the shooting
as racist and unjustified, without regard to the views on race of the police
involved, and without a review of the actual facts that anti-Trump corporate
media was reluctant to expose but which were contained in the police report. At
the same time, there is a long history of police falsifying evidence and
statements to justify shootings such as these.
Note
that the governor of Wisconsin, the Democrat Tony Evers, is the one who
declared a state of emergency for Covid-19 and an unpopular lockdown. He is a
career government bureaucrat, and was met by a mobilization of armed citizens
against those diktats. Yet the fall-out and riots in the aftermath of the Blake
shooting, of which the Evers-mandated high unemployment (per lockdown) forms
the substrate but yet expressed through BLM/Antifa riots, will be blamed on
Trump, whose years in public service can be counted on a single hand, and whose
general efforts have been to end the lockdown and ‘re-open the economy’. Evers
will not call on rioters to observe social distancing, and will call the armed
detachments involved in arson and looting, ‘protesters’, and the
constitutionalist militias who deployed to protect the rights of both
protestors (from police excess) and civilians (from protestor-arsonists) as
‘right wing’.
The
increasing emergence of ‘armed peaceful protestors’, an Orwellian oxymoron as a
phrase in itself, first appeared in the Syrian conflict, where American
corporate media and fake-left publications like Counterpunch regularly
referred to armed Al Qaeda/ISIS/FSA groups engaged in shootings and killings as
‘peaceful protesters’.
In our past pieces, we have explored the mechanisms
that the DNC and the permanent administration will use to nullify or falsify
the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election in November. This included
the use of Democrat governors in certain states, as we previously wrote,
to declare a state winner so that its electors go to Biden, in manufactured
cases where the desired vote by state citizens could not be determined. It
included the use of NGO employees, Labor/BLM/Antifa activists alongside contact
tracers to use the coronavirus and social upheaval around manufactured racial
justice issues to interfere with voters’ access to polls, and voters’ use of
mailed-out ballots and ballot harvesting schemes.
In
our last piece we disclosed that the DNC plans to have Biden declare himself
the winner of the election, whatever the pending (inconclusive,
tampered, stolen, etc.) outcome may be.
In a
separate piece published on FRN, this
author explained that for the Trump strategy against the riots to work, would
require a plan that involved the co-opting of the BLM hashtag by his
supporters. This would mean a separation of the BLM from Antifa, the latter
being a designated terrorist group.
We
explained there that this approach would be similar to that taken by Russia and
Syria in the Syrian war, where certain Free Syrian Army (FSA) units had to be
separated from ISIS, so that these FSA units could be considered ‘legitimate
opposition’ (a change of tact in itself, previously all armed opposition
were considered illegitimate by the Syrian government), and even
incorporated into joint attacks with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA – Assad’s
forces) against ISIS.
Of
particular interest will be how the public and courts view the actions of
Kenosha Guard militia member Kyle Rittenhouse. These two videos, the news
commentary dubbed over and to the contrary, show Rittenhouse acting in self-defense.
It also shows that those with him provided first responder assistance to the
man who pulled a gun on Rittenhouse and who was subsequently shot in the arm.
Censorship
We
now know, per the New York Times, that Facebook execs have been
meeting to implement a strategy to censor information that Donald
Trump has won the 2020 election, because of the working contingency
plan (which appears to still be in operation) that Biden will declare victory
regardless of a determinable outcome, as we previously wrote. This, however as
we explained, would result in a vote in the Congress and Senate where it is
likely that Nancy Pelosi may assume the presidency.
Simultaneously,
Facebook execs have had a difficult time pushing against a terrified DNC which
has been making irrational demands to further censorship.
Why are the DNC’s Censorship demands on Facebook
irrational?
The
DNC demands are fear-based and reactionary, and while Facebook execs have been
happy to do the bidding of the DNC and pro-deep state Republicans (still a
majority), they know the requests to further censor pro-Trump twitter accounts
are known to produce the opposite effect. This is confirmed by the known science on the subject.
Studies
of social revolutions and regime legitimacy show that further censorship in an
environment where citizens have access to alternate informational lines, only
erodes the legitimacy of the regime. Such a study was conducted on how the DDR tried to
cover up the mass exodus of citizens into West Germany some
thirty years ago [Sometimes Less Is More: Censorship, News Falsification,
and Disapproval in 1989 East Germany . Christian Gläßel Katrin Paula
, 2019].
Facebook
execs called upon MIT to conduct a study to help establish their case, and a
layman’s version of these conclusions were published in MIT’s online magazine
‘Technology Review’ in a piece titled, It’s Too Late to Stop QAnon with Fact Checks and Account Bans.
In
this article by MIT, it is reported that: “Friedberg, who has studied the
movement deeply, says he believes it is “absolutely” too late for mainstream
social-media platforms to stop QAnon, although there are some things they could
do to, say, limit its adherents’ ability to evangelize on Twitter.”
Like
the study of the DDR and regime legitimacy, the DNC finds that the more they
push for censorship, the more popular the pro-Trump conspiracy theories grow.
What
appears to be a work-around for this conundrum the deep state faces, is a new
development, where the Soros wing of BLM has been instructed to stage at least
one rally (so far) in Chicago that took place during the week of August 17th.
In this, a group wearing what looked like Soros wing BLM uniforms actually
carried placards associated with QAnon – such as WWG1WGA, #SaveTheChildren,
#EndHumanTrafficking, and were replete with signs calling for ‘ending the
pedophile Satanic cabal’.
Podesta’s Simulation Sees Public Looking to Military
for a Sign
Of
particular interest is that John Podesta recently ran a simulation on the DNC’s
approach and response to election 2020, where he played the role of
Biden. This war-game exercise was covered
by David Frum for the Atlantic. Despite its counter-factual ‘facts’
and erroneous presumptions (poll based, etc.), the findings were startling.
Neither
side would concede, courts would be too slow to act, Antifa and QAnon groups
would clash in the streets, and the actions of the military, in either
direction, or as with the National Guard – as deployed by the Justice
Department under AG Barr, would be the deciding factor.
In
that simulation there were a total of 67 players who met on Zoom in the first
week of June 2020. This was composed of high-profile critics of President
Donald Trump, including law professors, retired military officers, former
senior U.S. officials, political strategists, attorneys, and cable news room
editors.
We
have to reiterate that Podesta, playing the role of Biden, understands that the
real outcome of the election will therefore be the position that the military
takes.
A
wing of Trump’s supporters – Qanon – are adamant that military intelligence, or
at least an operation within the NSA, will not only back Trump, but have been
backing Trump since before the 2016 election. They believe this partly explains
Trump’s victory despite what they see as an election ‘rigged’ by Clinton –
thereby explaining Clinton’s otherwise unfounded confidence that she would win
by a landslide in that fateful election now four years ago.
On
the other side have been several notable members of the deep state, such as
Colin Powell and former CIA chief John Brennan.
This
all gels with the insider information that we have written about from SEIU,
which as explained previously, forms the nexus between the Biden ground
campaign and its GOTV, Bernie’s ‘Our Revolution’ and ‘Working Families Party’,
Antifa, and BLM.
Conclusion
The
likelihood that the 2020 election will not produce an agreed winner, barring
effective active measures from Trump, is nearly certain. Based on the
Northop/Standard model, Trump has an over 90% chance at winning an election if
following the rules in place in the past dozen election cycles. This explains
why the DNC has introduced as many X factors as possible – a politicized
Covid-19 response, slanted news which riles up reliable protest movement assets
towards rioting and looting, and a mailed-out ballots scheme which is
indistinguishable in effect from known problem vote riggings techniques like
ballot harvesting.
