“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new
millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden
spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will
disintegrate. The political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will
beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class,
race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake.
Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history,
commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of
the Great Depression and World War II.” –Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The chart below was posted by Jesse a
few weeks ago. It accompanied a post titled Gathering Storm. He doesn’t
specifically refer to the chart, but his words reflect the ominous view of the
future depicted in the chart.
“When gold and silver finally are able, through price action, to
have their say about the state of Western fiscal and monetary policy actions,
it may break a few eardrums and shatter a more than a few illusions about the
wisdom and honesty of the money masters. Slowly, but surely, a reckoning is
coming. And what has been hidden will be revealed.”
The title of the post and the chart both grabbed my attention
and provide a glimpse into the reality of our present situation. The Gathering Storm was the
title of Winston Churchill’s volume one history of World War II. Churchill
documents the tumultuous twenty years leading up to World War II in The Gathering Storm. The years
following World War I, through the Great Depression and the rise of Hitler were
abysmal, but only a prelude to the approaching horror of 65 million deaths over
the next six years. What
appeared to be dark days in the 1930’s were only storm clouds gathering before
a once in a lifetime tempest. In my view, we stand at an equally perilous point
in history today.
The graph represents the standard progress of a three-act drama
in literature. In the three-act structure, act one has the least tension, since
it is only establishing the characters and the settings. The catalyst triggers
an increase in tension with the revelation dramatically escalating the pressure
as you approach the climax. The intensity remains high in act three as the
final confrontation and resolution play out. Every Shakespearean tragedy
follows this general pathway to a final denouement. It peculiarly parallels the
path of a Fourth Turning.
A Fourth Turning’s three acts
are the catalyst phase, regeneracy stage, and climax. The plot of this Fourth Turning crisis revolves
around the core elements of debt, civic decay, and global disorder. The 2008
global financial crisis, manufactured by the Fed and their Wall Street
puppeteers, was catalyzed by hundreds of billions in bad debt issued as part of
the largest control fraud scheme in world history. The brunt of this banker
formulated disaster has been borne by the former working middle class and
senior citizens dependent upon interest income to survive in an inflationary
world. The initial threat of full-fledged collapse was deferred through extreme
monetary and fiscal actions by the establishment vassals, as they created
trillions in new debt to fill the vortex produced by the trillions in bad debt.
We are only in the early stages of Act 2 of this tragedy we call
The Fall of the American Empire. The tension triggered in 2008/2009 by the
Federal Reserve/Wall Street created subprime debacle subsided, as the ruling
class was able to expand their wealth (rigging the financial markets), while
crushing dissent (OWS, Tea Party), expanding their surveillance state (as
revealed by Snowden), waging undeclared wars around the globe (Syria, Libya,
Iraq, Yemen), adding $10 trillion to the national debt, while distracting the
masses through propaganda, electronic bread and circuses, and trivial societal
diversions. While the public is busy arguing about gay marriage, wedding cakes,
transgender bathrooms, safe spaces, triggers, SJWs, Bruce Jenner becoming
Caitlyn Jenner, and apes rights, the ruling class pillages the remaining wealth
of the nation and forges ahead with their plans to control our lives.
Despite knowing a Fourth Turning generally ebbs
and flows over a two-decade time frame, it can be frustrating watching the corrupt crony capitalist
pigs running this shitshow continue to flagrantly disregard the rule of law,
the Constitution, and abusing the citizens of this country. But the temporary
lull in intensity is coming to an end. We are now eight years into this Fourth
Turning with at least a decade to go before the climax. The regeneracy has been
slow in coming, but it appears the mood of the country has been catalyzed by
the anti-establishment campaigns of Trump and Sanders. They have begun the
process of regeneracy against the ingrained, corrupt, immoral establishment.
The people are collectively revolting against the existing
social order as they are finally realizing they have been used and abused by
the ruling oligarchy as pawns in their game of world domination. The obscene
wealth of the .1% has been absconded from the working class through abuse of
the tax laws, trade deals, regulations, monetary policy, public school
indoctrination, peddling of debt to the masses, and relentless propaganda. The
systematic manipulation of the financial, monetary, political and commercial
markets by the money masters has left the country like a mighty diseased,
hollowed out, rotting oak tree – one storm away from collapsing and splintering
into a thousand pieces. A gathering storm approaches.
The mood of the country has
turned dark. The political parties are splintering. The elites in NYC, DC, and
LA are appalled the peasants in flyover country are not following orders and
voting for the hand-picked lackey candidates. If Clinton can avoid indictment,
she’ll represent the establishment versus the anti-establishment Trump in the
upcoming election. The establishment is using the power of the press to try and
discredit Trump and Sanders. It’s failing. The mainstream media is now trusted
and respected on par with Congress – lower than whale shit.
The establishment is now
resorting to paying thugs to violently disrupt Trump campaign events. This ploy
is backfiring, as the white silent majority gravitates toward Trump every time
an illegal immigrant burns an American flag or a young woman is assaulted by
Black Thugs Matter paid rioters. With the economy in freefall, rigged financial
markets immensely overvalued, debt levels at extremes, global tensions rising,
and an increasingly angry American populace desperate for change, it appears
the stars are aligning for a Trump presidency. He is a flawed human
being, with a huge ego, no filter, and no experience governing. But none of
that matters. He has captured the zeitgeist of this moment in history.
At this juncture in a Fourth Turning the public is
ready to dump leaders who have downplayed the vast problems facing the country
(unfunded liabilities, illegal immigration, entitlements, debt, wars, jobs,
bankers) in favor of leaders who are willing to amplify and tackle those problems
head on. A new civic ethos of addressing and responding to threats is taking
hold. The generational configuration is aligned and the mood of the country is
ripe for a prophet generation Boomer, like Trump, to be the Grey Champion who
will lead the country through the darkest most perilous portion of this Fourth
Turning.
As this Fourth Turning careens towards
its climax, the intensity will escalate. Bold decisions will need to be made
requiring a leader who displays tremendous confidence and strong leadership.
Political correctness will be cast aside. The previous two Grey Champion
leaders – Lincoln and Roosevelt – are despised on many levels by many people,
as they both ignored the Constitution on many occasions while attempting to do
what they thought best in leading the country through desperate times. Their
policies and executive actions during those dark days of the Civil War, Great
Depression, and World War II left a long-lasting impact on the country and play
a major role in our current crisis. As Strauss and Howe predicted almost 20
years ago, the regeneracy is solidly under way.
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a
sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a
new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new
party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will
enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology,
that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private
sacrifice.Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures,
they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy
will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
It is difficult for the vast majority of people to comprehend
the likely chaos, pain, bloodshed and war which will overspread the nation and
the world during the final two acts of this tragic play. The discomfort most
people are feeling is just their cognitive dissonance telling them everything
will be fine as they experience a steady decline in their standard of living.
Harkening back to Jesse’s original chart, the Fourth Turning regeneracy is
aligning with the Revelation in Act 2.
The day of reckoning will arrive when Trump is
elected and that which has been hidden is revealed. Anyone who doesn’t grasp
the increasing intensity of the rhetoric, opponent interactions and media
responses will be blindsided by the coming storm. The days of delusion, denial
and debt are going to revert to dismay, depression and death.
There is no more room to increase leverage. Americans are up to
their eyeballs in mortgage, credit card, auto loan, and student loan debt
($17.4 trillion). Corporations are stuffed with record levels of debt ($14
trillion) they used to buy back their stock at all-time high prices. State and
local governments are drowning in trillions of debt and unfunded pension
liabilities. The Federal government is $19.3 trillion in debt, with unfunded
entitlement liabilities exceeding $200 trillion.
It is mathematically
impossible for this debt to be repaid with a rapidly aging developed world and
a debt saturated developing the world. With financial markets as overvalued as
they have ever been, the next crash will leave all the heavily indebted parties
with no assets to repay the debt. The losses will make the 2008 financial
crisis look like a stroll in the park. And the Fed shot their load years ago,
without having the guts to reload. Their credibility is shot and their $4
trillion balance sheet is insolvent. The Wall Street banks are zombies
sustained by 0% interest rates and accounting fraud.
I know the last few years
have been frustrating for the “doom and gloomers” who actually have critical
thinking skills and understand the nature of our dire economic situation. Much
like Michael Burry, as described so well by Michael Lewis in The Big Short, your facts may be
100% correct but markets and people can remain irrational for longer than you
think possible. By having the courage of your convictions, you must be prepared
for scorn, ridicule, and mocking.
As the unpayable debt has
expanded to ever greater heights and monetary authorities across the globe
implement a wildly desperate measure like negative interest rates and buying
financial assets to prop up stock markets, the public has become more
unquestioning of reality and deluded by the seeming stability of financial
markets. Record-low-interest rates and rising stock prices reinforce the
normalcy bias of most people.
Many smart, normally
skeptical, people have thrown in the towel. Because the gathering storm has not
struck as predicted, they begin to believe it will never strike. This same
mindset existed in 1860, 1929, 1940, 1999, and 2007. It easy to be lulled to
sleep by the propaganda media machines, lying politicians, and extreme monetary
schemes portrayed as normal by the money men. Things are not getting better. We
are not at the end of this crisis.
We are in the midst of a
Greater Depression, with the most trying times still ahead. Fourth Turnings
never de-intensify. They intensify into a chaotic whirlwind, where the future
of our civilization hangs in the balance. The climax of this play is a long way
off. The election of Trump in November will trigger the transformational change
that always happens during a Fourth Turning. An ill wind is beginning to blow.
You can’t avoid the coming storm, but you can mentally and physically prepare.
Our choices will make a difference.
“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no
less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For
what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us
forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way
there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the secular rhythm tells us
that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The speculum does not
reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and
when our choices will make a difference.” – Strauss
& Howe – The Fourth Turning
Reprinted from The Burning Platform.
