Sometimes when I step back from the overwhelming flow of
geopolitical insanity I’m reminded of the old adage that coming close only
counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
To which, I
always add, “And nuclear war.”
I’ve been
watching the build up to the operation to liberate Idlib in Syria which
includes the endless neocon and Israeli moral preening warning Assad against
using chemical weapons with a sense of detachment. And I keep thinking to
myself, “Do they really think we’re that stupid?”
Three times the
chemical weapons canard has been used to justify further aggression against
Syria and three times a full-blown U.S. invasion has been averted. First by
Vladimir Putin’s deft diplomacy and General Dunford’s refusal to implement a
‘no-fly zone’ in 2013 and then during the Trump years with ineffectual air
strikes on Syrian airbases.
How much of
that ineffectuality of those airstrikes were designed by Defense Secretary
James Mattis to avoid a wider conflagration and how much was Russian EW/missile
defense is anyone’s guess.
The truth most
likely lies somewhere in the middle.
That is why
everyone who is worrying about the U.S.’s blustering over Syria’s Idlib
campaign needs to take a big step back and think the scenario through.
Because the
neoconservatives and Israel are forcing the situation to its crisis point,
thinking they can manipulate the headlines and the levers of power to still eke
out a victory in Syria that will allow them to continue on their quest to
destroy Russia first and conquer the rest of Asia after that.
And they are
willing to blackmail us with the threat of WWIII over 50,000 head-chopping
mercenaries to get their cookie.
However, when
you factor in the men actually in charge of the U.S. military chain of command,
Trump and Mattis, and you realize the lengths to which Mattis’ field commanders
have gone to avoid direct confrontation with Russian forces, you come to the
conclusion that the men who will actually fight this war the neoconservative
provocateurs and laptop bombardiers are clamoring for won’t actually pull the
trigger.
The reasons for
this are manifest.
First, the
potential for the conflict to go nuclear is too high for rational men to take
that chance. Mattis and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are
hard-bitten, no-nonsense men. Neither underestimates the other’s resolve
to defend their men and national interests.
So, once the
shooting starts expect it to get ugly quick. Therefore it is unlikely to
get to that point.
Second, there
is no profit in that kind of escalation for the people who profit from
war. The banks and the military weapons makers thrive in low-intensity,
frozen conflicts which keep sales flowing and governments indebted to pay for
them.
In an age of
nuclear weapons, proxy wars fought by mercenaries with drones are far more
profitable than any large-scale invasions. I hate to say this but from a
discounted cash flow perspective Lockheed-Martin wants predictability to cover
their quarterly dividends to shareholders more than they want to bring about
the supposed Zionist plan for Greater Israel.
Sorry to burst
everyone’s conspiracy theories.
Third and most
importantly, the U.S. cannot afford a non-nuclear confrontation with Russia
that punctures the illusion of U.S. military superiority. Too much of the
world’s confidence in the dollar itself rests in the U.S.’s ability to project
power and defend its interests militarily.
This confidence
is a mixture of that military capability and the U.S.’s traditional position of
a country with an excellent legal framework within which to do business.
It is fashionable among geopolitical critics, myself included, to get caught up
in the rhetoric and projection of a sclerotic and weakening United States, but
legally it is still one of the best places on earth to do business.
But, as Martin Armstrong pointed out
recently, Trump’s domestic opposition has openly declared sedition
against him this week in the New York Times. Former Secretary
of State, John Kerry, is doing the talk show circuit calling for a
constitutional crisis over Trump allegedly being unfit for office. And
George Soros is paying protesters to disrupt the confirmation hearing of Brett
Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
If allowed to
run its course to impeachment in the event of the Republicans losing control of
the House in November, this would be a death blow to the U.S.’s reputation as a
nation of laws rather than a nation of men. The U.S. dollar would not
recover from such a blow to its credibility, especially in light of Trump’s
nearly-unhinged use of sanctions and threats of tariffs, weaponizing the dollar
indiscriminately.
And this is why
Vladimir Putin openly showed his hand to the world in March.
Strategically, he let everyone know that any confrontation between Russia and
the U.S. would result in the U.S losing its status as the world’s pre-eminent
military power.
This is why the
neocons and the U.S./U.K. Deep State have been so adamant in accelerating its
provocations against Russia. They have to present us with the Faustian
bargain of WWIII before Russia has these weapon systems fully deployed.
It’s also why
Trump and Mattis are allowing them to have their head. It feeds Trump’s
“Art of the Deal” strategy for negotiations while also allowing him the
opportunity to save face after Idlib is liberated regardless of whether another
chemical weapons attack is staged.
I think we
won’t see one here.
The way out of
Syria for the U.S. with its face-saved is to thunder and bluster, threaten fire
and brimstone just like Trump did with Kim Jong-un and use that to explain why
Assad showed restraint and didn’t use chemical weapons this time.
I can even see
Trump tweeting something about three strikes and he would be out.
Once Idlib is
liberated Mattis will happily begin pulling vulnerable troops out of al-Tanf
and Afghanistan. That’s why I believe he went there to the surprise of
the CIA house-organ Washington Post last week.
And then the
neocon and Israeli muddying of the waters will move to the Geneva talks, but
we’ll cross that Rubicon when it approaches.
