On September 24, while the Ukraine corruption scandal was
gathering momentum in Washington, the US Air Force’s 31 Fighter Wing deployed F-16
strike aircraft to Graf Ignatievo Air Base in Bulgaria as part of Exercise
Rapid Buzzard which has the aim of
improving the “joint warfighting capability” of the US and Bulgarian air
forces. It is hardly coincidental that Bulgaria has undertaken to
spend $1.27 billion on buying F-16s, resulting in the US State Department
declaring that “We salute Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and the Bulgarian
government on its commitment to modernize its military through the acquisition
of these highly capable, NATO interoperable aircraft.”
The build-up of US-NATO
offensive weapons continues unabated round Russia’s borders, with Bulgaria
being described by the
State Department as “a reliable ally in an area of strategic importance to the
United States.” In New York, the day before the F-16 redeployment, US and
Polish Presidents Trump and Duda signed a joint
agreement to greatly increase military cooperation and “develop the plan to
bolster Polish–United States military ties and United States defence and
deterrence capabilities in Poland.”
The increase in US military
commitment to Poland involves establishment of six bases, from Poznan is the
west to Lubliniec in the south, accommodating forces including a divisional
headquarters, an attack drone squadron, a combat aviation brigade and a special
operations force “facility”. Discussions are taking place about “the most
suitable location in Poland for an armoured brigade combat team.”
Meanwhile, in sanity land, Deutsche Welle reported on 2
October that “news of an agreement reached Tuesday between Ukraine and
pro-Russia separatists was met with optimism in Russia and Germany” with
Chancellor Merkel, arguably the most able leader in Europe, saying that it is
an “important step.” The move towards rapprochement resulted from agreement by
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to allow local elections in the Donbass
regions of Luhansk and Donetsk where there has been an uprising against the
Kiev government by Russian-speaking, Russia-cultured separatists.
This welcome development
resulted in further optimism that there will be another series of discussions
in the near future between Presidents Zelenskiy, Putin and Macron together with
Chancellor Merkel, reviving the “Normandy Format” aimed at resolving the
situation in eastern Ukraine on the lines of the peace agreement signed in
Minsk in 2015.
Not much appeared in the
western media about these initiatives, but Xinhua reported the French
foreign ministry as stating that “France welcomes this progress, which was
facilitated by the intense negotiations conducted over the last few weeks
within the so-called Normandy format between France, Germany, Ukraine and
Russia. The conditions have now been met for the forthcoming meeting of heads
of state and government in the Normandy format aimed at making progress toward
a lasting settlement of the conflict in Ukraine,” involving the separatists in
the east of the country.
Although the modest progress was generally welcomed in Europe, there was
no endorsement from Washington. This is understandable, because the entire
government and media of the United States are obsessed with a massive scandal
involving President Trump’s intention to have Ukraine confirm that his main
2020 presidential election opponent, Joseph Biden, had been in some way
involved in shady dealings with Ukraine’s government. Further, as Time magazine summed up matters, it is said that
Ukraine had “found a way to conspire against [Trump] during the 2016 election,
and to collude with his rival, Hillary Clinton, by hiding the Democratic
National Committee’s email server and feeding her allies dirt about Trump.”
All this was decidedly awkward for the US media,
which has made it clear in the past that Ukraine, although corrupt to the core
and verging on ungovernable, must be seen as a shining light of democracy,
while neighbouring Russia is intent on extinguishing its sparkling example of
freedom and social advancement. Washington ignores such inconvenient agencies
as Human Rights Watch which in its 2019 Report observed
that “The Ukrainian government continued restrictions on freedom of expression,
freedom of information, and media freedom… These ranged from threats and
intimidation to restricting journalists’ access to information.”
In July the US Senate approved a Resolution “marking
the fifth anniversary of Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity by honouring the
bravery, determination, and sacrifice of the people of Ukraine during and since
the Revolution, and condemning continued Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
Tellingly, this drum-thumping ratification of aggression “applauds the progress
that the Government of Ukraine has made since the Revolution in strengthening
the rule of law, aligning itself with Euro-Atlantic norms and standards, and
improving military combat readiness and interoperability with the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.”
While the thrust of the
Resolution was military confrontation, the most interesting paragraph concerns
an important trade matter : the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which is intended to
double the capacity of the existing pipeline conveying Russian gas to Germany.
As Forbes noted in July, “Russia
continues to dominate the global natural gas trade, accounting for 26% of
global natural gas exports.”
The Senate disapproves of this impending improvement to the economies of
Russia and Germany (and Europe as a whole) and alleges that in some strange
fashion completion of the pipeline would “further undermine Ukraine’s economic
stability, and threatens to increase the country’s vulnerability to further
Russian military incursions.” There is no explanation offered as to how,
exactly, the building of a gas pipeline of mutual benefit to provider and
recipient can result in military incursions, but this sort of detail is
irrelevant to deliberations and decisions in Washington.
What it all comes down to is the possibility of economic advantage to the
United States, which would benefit enormously if Nord Stream 2 were cancelled,
because Washington would then encourage Germany to import US gas, at a
considerably higher price, with much profit to US producers.
Forbes notes that with
“record production, and the most efficient and competitive natural gas industry
in the world, the future shines bright for US gas exporters,” while “Although
not as fast growing as China and India, Europe will remain a focus
for US natural gas shippers.” Of course it is a focus, and it is not surprising
that in July the US Senate legislated sanctions
on companies and individuals involved in construction of the Russia-Germany
Nord Stream 2.
Washington’s combination of military confrontation and economic sanctions
in its campaign against Russia has no moral basis, and
Ukraine has no reason to be confident that it will benefit in any way from the
current uproar over the 2016 election fandangos. As a Washington Post Editorial had it on
4 October: “the White House was conditioning security assistance on Ukraine’s
promise to conduct the politically motivated investigations.” That is not the way allies operate,
but then Washington isn’t an ally to anyone unless there is a promise of
economic advantage to the Military-Industrial Complex. That is why the
Washington Establishment prefers confrontation to dialogue and cooperation.
The views of individual
contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture
Foundation.
British and Australian armies’ veteran, former deputy head of the
UN military mission in Kashmir and Australian defense attaché in
Pakistan.
Copyright © 2019 Strategic Culture Foundation | Republishing is welcomed with reference to Strategic Culture online journal www.strategic-culture.org.
Copyright © 2019 Strategic Culture Foundation | Republishing is welcomed with reference to Strategic Culture online journal www.strategic-culture.org.
