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Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Reading the Economic Winds - Vox Popoli

 Turkiye has asked to join BRICS.

Turkiye has formally requested to join the BRICS group of emerging economies, Bloomberg cited informed sources as saying on 2 September.

Ankara “seeks to bolster its global influence and forge new ties beyond its traditional Western allies,” the sources said. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes “that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from developed economies” and that the push to join BRICS “reflects its aspirations to cultivate ties with all sides in a multipolar world, while still fulfilling its obligations as a key member of NATO.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in early June that BRICS serves as a good alternative to the EU. Later that month, he confirmed that dialogue between Ankara and BRICS nations was ongoing – coming as Turkish frustration continued to grow due to stalled efforts to join the EU.

It wouldn’t be surprising if China and Russia inform Turkiye that before it can join BRICS, it has to leave NATO. With both the leading powers at de facto war with the USA, I don’t see how they can permit a country with an Article 5 obligation – however flimsy and easily-evaded – to go to war with them to join the organization. Of course, this may be part of the process that Erdogan anticipates; since BRICS is clearly of far more value to Turkiye than NATO, he might simply want the excuse of reacting to a BRICSian demand rather than proactively leaving NATO of his own accord.

But one way or another, I expect Turkiye to join BRICS and leave NATO. I also suspect that Macron’s brief and bizarre expression of interest in having France join BRICS was a test to see if BRICS would potentially consider accepting a NATO member, in order to see if it would be necessary to try forestalling Turkiye’s application.

And considering that Switzerland is still foolishly wandering down the path toward taking sides with NATO and the EU, Turkiye may well find themselves in an optimal geopolitical position, filling the very profitable space between BRICS and Clown World that Switzerland played in the 20th century during both World Wars and the Cold War.

UPDATE: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accepted the Kremlin’s invitation to attend the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan next month, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said on Tuesday.

It looks like the Turks are changing sides. As I’ve mentioned before, we’ll know the total collapse of Clown World is upon us when Japan does the same.

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https://voxday.net/2024/09/03/reading-the-economic-winds/