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Friday, April 11, 2025

On Musk's (And Many Others) 'Fear' on population growth and decline

 REALITY + LOGIC = Karl Denninger 

Read full text:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=253107 

Stability can only come when, once again, a median capability couple can have a family with one person earning a wage and the second operating the household, including raising the children.  If you decrease the average capacity of said couples by importing those who are less-capable then the real earnings requirement for that median couple does not change but the cost requirement that must be intersected for balance to be restored decreases even more.

Humans are not cats, dogs or rabbits; we have the capacity to think and project forward into the future where your cat does not beyond possibly anticipating when the feeder will go off ten minutes hence.  Indeed that is, from my perspective anyway, the definition of sentience; the capacity to project into the future what that future is likely to look like both for myself and, if I am contemplating having children, for my children to be.

The trend will not reverse until the median projection by all such couples is at least stability in a two-parent household with one of the adults able to earn a wage sufficient to support at least four people.

We're a long way above that in terms of cost -- at least double and, on a median basis, probably triple or more -- and yet despite those who say that can't ever happen yes it will because as population contracts the value of labor rises and demand for goods and services, which of course reflects into price, falls.

The more and longer governments and wealthy people try to evade the basics of economics the worse the outcome gets before that correction finally takes place -- but it will take place, and no, humans will not go extinct because when that equilibrium is reached people will choose, once again, to have kids.