Mark G. provides the analytic
structure needed to understand why both parties are coming apart at the seams:
What Kotkin describes here is
best characterized as a civil war among Democratic Party Elites. This parallels
a similar struggle taking place inside the GOP between the 'GOP Establishment'
and probably 70% of the GOP's electoral base.
(Excerpt from Kotkin:)
"The rising tech oligarchy, having disrupted everything from hotels and
taxis to banking, music and travel, is also taking over the content side of the
media business. In the process, we might see the future decline of traditional
media, including both news and entertainment, and a huge shift in media power
away from both Hollywood and New York and toward the Bay Area and
Seattle."
(Mark G.:) I think the most
important finding from the present political cycle is the evidence of rapidly
rising factionalism and infighting among our 0.01%'ers. Their ships are not
"all sailing in the same direction," as Don Lucchesi said in
Godfather III. Their goals are becoming very divergent indeed to the point of
directly opposing each other.
Contrary to received MSM wisdom,
this warfare appears to be most pronounced at present inside the Democratic
Party. Bernie Sanders is clearly the AFL-CIO's man in a sense, along with the
aged New Left. And he's drawing crowds to match. Like Bill, Hillary is the
creature of Wall Street, NYC-based Mainstream Media, Hollywood and the
Government Educational complex. The Tech Oligarchs really don't have a
candidate of their own in the field this cycle.
Meanwhile the "GOP
Establishment" is increasingly at open war with its own electoral base. So
is the Democratic Party under the aegis of the digital 'Tech Oligarchs.' The
older 'Mainframe' Democratic elites were far more attentive to middle class
interests in their political coalition. The Tech Oligarchs are displaying a
streak of Libertarian "My Way Or The Highway" rawness where it comes
to political issues and the interests of nominal coalition partners.
I think The Donald could easily
be found possessing support from some surprising quarters when the time
comes………..
For further evidence of the
fault lines shattering the Democratic Party consider Who Turned My Blue State Red? Why poor areas vote for politicians
who want to slash the safety net.
Perhaps we can summarize
this as the resentment of the remaining middle class/working class for
free-riders who are living as well or better than the heavily burdened workers
supporting their guaranteed income.
Game theory has shown that
participants will choose to punish cheaters over skimming rewards, until the
cheaters are in the majority. At that point, everyone converts to
cheating/free-riding and the system collapses.
This rising sense of
injustice applies to three classes: the super-wealthy skimmers who buy
political influence; protected state workers drawing benefits that are distant
memories for 99% of private-sector workers, and the free-riders at the bottom
buying groceries with SNAP cards and non-food items with wads of cash earned
without the burdens of taxes.
So we have two volatile
brews being mixed together: the
anger and resentment of what's left of the middle and working classes against
those above and below them, and the widening political disunity of the Elites.
All those Democratic Party
stalwarts whose power base is being disrupted by digital forces beyond their
control are not happy campers. Unfortunately for them, history can't be turned
back.
As for the Republicans, the
party's long reliance on social polarization for its support is wearing thin,
as thin as the wallets and purses of traditional Republican audiences.
What's upending the
existing political Elites is this: there's no free lunch. As the phantom free lunch of the past
seven years is shattered by economic realities, the parties' fiefdoms are
discovering there isn't enough money for all fiefdoms to expand as they have
for 60 years.
As a result, each fiefdom
is forced to battle other Elites for increasingly scarce financial and
political oxygen.
The American Power Elite
may yet discover that throw the bums out applies to all existing Establishment
parties and Elites.
