In any
analysis of contemporary international politics it pays to be cautiously pessimistic.
As the default mode one can generally expect that any way in which things can go
wrong to threaten the peace and security of the planet, they will. Anticipation
of improvement is a chump’s bet.
That’s why
the analyst’s gut instinct rebels at any indication that things overall may be
moving in a positive direction, however haltingly or indirectly. But consider:
- Trump-Putin summit: President
Donald Trump has again indicated his interest in finally holding a formal
summit with President Vladimir Putin.
Austria has offered Vienna as a venue.
- Trump-Kim summit: Despite what was
almost surely a
deliberate effort in Washington to torpedo the June 12 Singapore meeting,
it’s back on. To the chagrin of many in the US nomenklatura dedicated
to a permanent American presence on the East Asian mainland, there’s
perhaps even a danger of peace
breaking out on the Korean peninsula.
Oh no! How do we then justify keeping American troops there? What happens
to the happy
prospect of US forces confronting China on the Yalu River in the event of
regime change in North Korea? Might a
Trans-Korean Railway connecting the South to Russia and China get
built? The possibilities are too horrible to contemplate.
- Goodbye
Russiagate, hello Spygate:
Allegations of Trump’s and his team’s collusion with the Kremlin are
increasingly exposed as what they are: a cover for an
anti-constitutional conspiracy within
the structures of the US Deep State (CIA, NSA, FBI, Department of Justice,
etc.) in complicity with – the Russians? – no with their British
sister agencies (MI6, GCHQ), first to deny Trump the
presidency, then to neuter him and remove him from office, and above all
to block
any chance of a patch-up with Russia.
While Robert
Mueller and his merry band of Democratic donors certainly have not given
up, their prospects are fading
and the Russia
obsession is beginning to turn into a political liability for
the DNC in the November Congressional elections.
- European populism marches on: Viva l’Italia! The
European Union’s (EU) favorite Sicilian, Italian President Sergio
Mattarella, tied to whack the M5S/Lega coalition. The hit failed. Now
Italy, the third-largest economy in the eurozone – too big to be smacked
around like Greece – joins the populist
bloc centered in the Visegrád Group, plus Austria.
This has particular importance with respect to the EU’s (and
Germany’s) disastrous
open door migration policy.
- Trade: In his boldest “America
First!” move to date, Trump has slapped higher steel and aluminum tariffs
on – well, pretty much everybody. While the move itself may be a bit
ham-fisted, it has signaled that the days of the US
attachment to one-way free trade while our trade partners practice
mercantilism are over.
- Europe’s anti-Russia sanctions:
American pressure on Europe with respect to trade with Iran, added to
Trump’s new tariffs, feeds resentment across Europe, especially in
powerful Germany, which especially objects to Washington’s threatening
sanctions on companies participating in Nord Stream 2. It may be too soon
to guess how soon the EU will pull the plug on anti-Russian sanctions, but
there’s something in the air when even the likes of European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker can say that “Russia-bashing
has to be brought to an end.” Italy’s
voice will be key.
- G7 – or G6+1, or again G8?:
Trump’s trade move has set a cat among the pigeons at this month’s Group
of Seven (G7) summit in Canada, hosted by alleged
groper Prime Minister Justice Trudeau. (To
be fair, perhaps image-conscious Justin was just trying to stay in close,
intimate touch with the media.) Trade differences add to disagreements
over climate issues, leading to a Twitter
spat between Trudeau and his francophone pal French President Emmanuel
Macron against Trump, who plans to skip the climate
portion of the summit which is likely to produce a statement from the
other six countries but not the US, effectively creating a G6+1.
Meanwhile Trump has exploded
the heads of Russian collusion conspiracy-mongers with his suggestion that
Russia should be readmitted to the club,
bringing it back to a G8. Italy has seconded the suggestion. Russia has
indicated its lack of interest.
At the
epicenter of each one of these earthshaking developments is one man: Donald
Trump.
It would be
inaccurate to say that these are even moves of the US government, of which
Trump is only
in partial control. With the permanent government – not to mention some of his own
appointees – seeking to undermine him at every step, Trump seems to be
resorting to the one tool he has at his personal disposal: disruption.
Let’s
remember that, especially in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Michigan, and Wisconsin, those who voted for Trump wanted something radically
different from business as usual. They voted for him because they wanted a bull
in a china shop, a wrecking
ball,
a human hand grenade, a big “FU” to the
system.
Maybe
that’s what we got.
To be sure,
none of the foregoing itemized developments is dispositive. But taken together
they point to a remarkable confluence of good omens, at least from the point of
view of those who wanted to shake up, even shatter, the cozy arrangements that
have guided the so-called “liberal global order.”
But those
whose careers and privileges, and in some cases their freedom and even lives,
depend on perpetuating that order will not go gentle into that good night. They are getting
nervous. This means in particular the elements of the US-UK special services,
their Democratic and GOP Never-Trump fellow travelers, the Trump-hating fake
news media, and the bureaucratic nonentities in Brussels (not only at the
European Commission but at NATO headquarters).
If past is
prologue, the Empire will strike back – hard and dirty.
One is
reminded of the past seven years of war in Syria, where every time the US
indicated a willingness to disengage, or when Syrian forces had made major military
gains, then – BAM! – a chemical weapons attack immediately
and without evidence is attributed to government forces, followed by renewed
cries of “Assad is killing his own people! Assad must go!” (This is a ploy that
goes back at least the Bosnian war of the 1990s. Every time a negotiated
ceasefire seemed to be taking shape, another “Serb
mortar attack” on civilians took place, leading to calls for NATO military
action.)
The
question is not “if” there will be a provocation, rather it’s one of when,
where and how. While it’s difficult to make
predictions, especially about the future, it’s nonetheless
possible to anticipate some possibilities:
- FIFA World Cup 2018
in Russia (June 14 to July 15):
Given the huge expense and effort Russia has put into the World Cup as a
favorable showcase to the world, it will be a tempting target. Let’s
remember that the unconstitutional ouster of Ukraine’s elected government
took place as Putin’s attention was presumably distracted by his pride and
joy, the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. The 2008 attack by Georgia’s
then-president, Mikheil Saakashvili, on South Ossetia, was launched while
the world’s eyes were focused on the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Both
initiatives led to a strong counteraction by Moscow, leading in turn to
worsened relations between Russia and the west – including Russia’s
suspension from the G8 in 2014. (Though in the fevered
imagination of western Russophobes,
Putin was the one using the games as a cover, not the other way around.) A
provocation could be directed against the FIFA events themselves –
perhaps a
terrorist attack by ISIS operatives reportedly
being ferried
out of the Middle East to Russia – or
something elsewhere timed to coincide with matches being played
all over Russia.
- Ukraine: Regarding President Petro
Poroshenko’s actions, everything must be put into the context of upcoming
presidential elections in 2019. Poroshenko has to find a way to get into a
runoff, presumably against Yulia Tymoshenko. The most beneficial thing he
could do would be somehow to pull a rabbit out of his hat and achieve a
peace deal in the Donbas. But chances of that are slim to none, as it
would require flexibility from Kiev that Poroshenko can’t afford to show
lest he be accused of being a Russian puppet. Conversely, he can up the
ante with the Russians and hope the West will line up behind him. Perhaps
the recent fake
news murder fiasco regarding the still very much alive Arkady Babchenko was
to have been one such ploy but it misfired. But there are other options,
such as a provocation along the line of control in the Donbas (the newly
delivered US Javelin missiles are handy, as is the Dutch
MH17 report), maybe a covert attack
on the Kerch bridge, as well as other less obvious
possibilities.
- Syria: It’s high time for
another malevolent,
militarily pointless, and counterproductive chemical attack “against
his own people” by “monster”© Assad, who must be eliminated
by any means necessary. Who’s responsible? Russia
of course!
- Incident between NATO and Russian forces: NATO
forces are stepping up provocative maneuvers on Russia’s doorstep in
the Baltic and Black seas – purely to deter Moscow’s aggression, mind you.
An incident could occur as any time, either by accident or on purpose.
Either way, it would be the hostile Russians’ fault for putting their
country so close to our bases and the venues of our military exercises.
- The Balkans: Never forget that those
Serbs just can’t be trusted. Srbe na vrbe!
- Assassination: One of Putin’s well-known
predilections is for killing, or at least attempting to kill, anyone who
might displease him. Or like Assad with his chemical weapons, maybe Putin
kills just for the sheer, malicious fun of it. The
list of victims is long: Babchenko (except, not), the
two Skripals (except, not them either), political opponents like Boris
Nemtsov and Sergei Yushenkov, muckraking journalists like Anna
Politkovskaya and Natalia Estemirova, former chekist Aleksandr
Litvinenko, RT network founder Mikhail Lesin, crusading lawyers
like Stanislav Markelov and Sergei Magnitsky, oligarch Boris Berezovsky,
and so on. A well-timed rubout of a suitably visible figure would have a
salubrious impact on any annoying moves towards east-west rapprochement.
No evidence is needed – the mere identity of the victim would be
irrefutable proof of Putin’s guilt.
Regarding
the last item, assassination, it should always be kept in mind that in the end
the man threatening to upset the applecart of the liberal global order isn’t
Putin – it’s
Trump. That suggests an ultimate solution that might become tempting
if The Donald’s continued functioning at higher than room temperature becomes
just too much to endure.
As Joseph
Stalin is reputed to have remarked, “Death solves all problems. No man, no
problem.” Trump, who for many powerful people is quite a problem indeed, has
been recklessly compared to Jean-Marie Le Pen, Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir
Putin – even to Hitler and Mussolini. In an American context, to Andrew
Jackson, Huey Long, and George Wallace. Let’s note that each of those three
Americans was the target of assassination. Jackson (someone
Trump is known to admire) survived by a failure of his attacker’s pistols, hailed by
some at the time as miraculous. “The Kingfish” was killed. Wallace was crippled
for life.
There is
reason to think that Trump is well aware of the fate of the last American
president who so threatened the habitual order of things and the entrenched,
ruthless establishment that profits so mightily from it. He has repeatedly
indicated his interest in releasing the full file on Jack Kennedy’s
assassination, then
backed off from it for undisclosed reasons. The shooting death of
the president’s brother Robert Kennedy, who had he been elected president in
1968 would have had the opportunity to reopen the investigation into his
brother’s murder, is back in the news with Robert
Kennedy, Jr., expressing doubt about the official conclusion that his father
was killed by Sirhan Sirhan.
If anyone
thinks there is any length to which Trump’s enemies will not go, think again.
