Every year Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Valdai
Economic Forum. And each year his talk is important. Putin isn’t one to mince words
on important issues.
With tensions between
Russia and the West reaching Cold War levels, Valdai represented the first time
we’ve heard Putin speak in a long-form discussion since Helsinki and the events
thereafter — IL-20, Khashoggi, etc.
So, this talk is worth
everyone’s time. And when I say everyone’s I mean every single person who
could be affected by the breakdown of the U.S. political system and how that
spills over onto Russia’s shores.
In other words, pretty
much everyone on the planet.
Because
what Putin did at Valdai was to lay down the new rules of conduct in
geopolitical affairs. He put the U.S. and European oligarchs I call The Davos Crowd on
notice.
There is a limit to your provocations and attempts to undermine
Russia. So don’t cross that line.
Peace Through Strength
The big quote from his talk is the one everyone is focusing on,
and rightly so, Russia’s policy about using nuclear weapons.
It’s not that Putin’s stance was any different than in the past.
Russia will strike back at an aggressor under any circumstance where the future
of Russia is at stake. It was his assurance that in doing so 1) it would
be just and righteous “dying like martyrs” and 2) so swift and brutal the
aggressors would “die like dogs” bereft of the chance to ask for salvation.
Those
are strong words. They are the words of a meek man.
And the word meek, as Jordan Peterson reminds us, describes someone who has
weapons, knows how to use them and keeps them sheathed until they have no other
option.
The reaction from the audience (see video above) was nervous
laughter, but I don’t think Putin was having one over on anyone.
He was serious. This is the very definition of meek.
It is really no different than the attitude of Secretary of
State James Mattis who said, “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But
I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you f$*k with me, I’ll kill
you all.”
Men
like this are not to be tested too hard. And Putin’s response to the
shooting down of the IL-20 plane and its crew was to cross a bunch of diplomatic
lines by handing out S-300s to Syria and erecting a de facto no-fly
zone over Western Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Notice how there have been no attacks or even harsh language
coming out of Israel or the U.S. in the past few weeks. The failure of
the British/French/Israeli operation to sucker Trump into an invasion of Syria
is now complete.
And I’m convinced that Nikki Haley paid the price.
All of this highlights the major theme that came out of Putin’s
comments.
Strength through resolve. Resolve comes as a consequence
of defending culture.
Putin wasn’t boasting or grandstanding about Russia’s hypersonic
weapons capability. He told everyone they are deployed. He did this
to shut up the U.S. neoconservative chattering class who he rightly says
whisper in President Trump’s ear that they can win a nuclear conflict with
Russia.
They are insane. And you have to treat them that way.
Culture First
Putin sees himself, quite
rightly, as the custodian of the Russian people and, as such, the Russian state
as the reflection of Russian culture. If you are going to have a state
and someone is going to be the head of it, this is the attitude that you want from
that person.
In his dialogue with an Orthodox priest Putin wholeheartedly
agreed with the idea that “the state cannot dictate culture” but rather, at
best, be the facilitator of it through its applications of law.
In a back and forth with a very enthusiastic Russian dairy
farmer, who was quite proud of his cheese, Putin reminded the man that while he
loved sanctions (from European competition) protecting his business today he
should not get used to them. They will be removed at some point and the farmer
would have to stand on his own wits to survive in the international market.
Putin understands that subsidies breed sloth. That was a
message he made loud and clear.
It’s why when the sanctions first went into effect in 2014 over
the reunification of Crimea and during the Ruble crisis Putin shifted state
subsidies away from the petroleum sector which had thrived and gotten soft
during years of $100+/bbl oil and shifted that money to agriculture.
The fruits of that successful policy shift he confronted head on
at Valdai. Russia’s food production across all sectors is
flourishing thanks to a cheap ruble, which the U.S. keeps beating down via
sanctions, and the Russian state getting out of the way of investment.
At the time he incurred the wrath of Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin and
Putin ignored him, much to everyone’s surprise. The message was clear,
we’ll help you out of your current troubles but it’s time to do business
differently. Because it was Rosneft that needed the biggest bailouts in
late 2014/early 2015 having tens of billions in dollar-denominated debt which
couldn’t be rolled over thanks to the sanctions.
The Limits of Empire
Ultimately, Putin looked resigned, if confused, to the insanity
emanating from U.S. policy. But it’s obvious to him that Russia cannot
get caught up in the tit-for-tat nuisances put up to derail Russia’s future.
He mentioned the Empire loses its way because it believed itself
invulnerable or as my dad used to say about certain athletes, “He reads his own
press clippings too much.”
There is a solipsism that infects dominant societies which
creates the kind of over-reactions we’re witnessing today. Power is
slipping away from the U.S. and Trump is both helping the process along while
also trying to preserve the core of what’s left.
And no interaction during Putin’s talk was more indicative of
his view of the U.S. empire than his interaction with a Japanese delegate who
asked him about signing a peace treaty with Japan.
And Putin’s answer was clear. It’s Japan’s pride and
political entanglements that preclude this from happening. Signing the
peace treaty is not necessary to solving ownership of the Kuril Islands.
Russia and Japan are both diminished by having this obstacle in the way.
The issue can resolve itself after the peace treaty is
signed. The current state of things is silly and anachronistic and keep
the divide between Russians and Japanese from healing. Create trust
through agreement then move forward.
That’s what is happening between Russia and Egypt and that is
why Putin is winning the diplomatic war.
And it’s why Trump is losing the diplomatic war. Putin
knows where Trump is. He was there himself seventeen years ago, except an
order of magnitude worse. The problems Trump is facing are the same
problems Putin faced, corruption, venality, treason all contributing to a
collapse in societal and cultural institutions.
Putin knows the U.S. is at a crossroads, and he’s made his peace
with whatever comes next. The question is have we?
