Beneath the surface of modern maps, numerous old fault lines still
exist. A political earthquake or two might reveal the fractures for all to see.
Correspondent Mark G. and I have long discussed the potential
relevancy of old boundaries, alliances and structures in Europe's future
alignments.Examples include the Holy Roman Empire and
the Hanseatic
League, among others.
In the long view, Europe has cycled between periods of
consolidation and fragmentation for two millennia, starting
with the Roman Empire and its dissolution. Various mass movements of
tribes/peoples led to new political structures and alliances, and a dizzying
range of leaders rose to power and schemed their way through an equally
dizzying array of wars, alliances and betrayals.
Regardless of the era or players, security is a permanent
priority: this includes defensible borders, alliances to counter
potential foes, treaties to end hostilities and whatever is necessary to secure
access to resources and trade routes.
When consolidation served these priorities, then fragmented
polities either consolidated by choice or by conquest. When
smaller polities served these priorities, then imperial structures fragmented
into naturally cohesive territories that were unified by language, culture and
geography.
Security is also economic, as people support structures that
keep their bellies filled and enable social stability and mobility.
For the sake of argument, let's say that the European Union is the
high water mark of consolidation, and the next phase is fragmentation. Where
are Europe's natural fault lines? Much has changed in the past 600 years, but
geography hasn't changed, and that defines some basic security threats.
Nation-states may appear permanent, but history suggests nothing
is as permanent as we might reckon. Polities that were brought into an Imperial
orbit but retained their identity and geographic boundaries may be last one
on, first one off.
In other cases, old fault lines were merely blurred rather than
erased.
Brexit is a one-off in some regards, but if we add Catalonia, we
discern the possibility of reversion to older borders and configurations. Could
Italy fragment into three polities, North, Rome and the South? The idea seems
absurd, but the history of modern states is based on much older
structures--structures that made sense then and might once again make sense.
Insecurity feeds fragmentation. Once borders are
no longer secure and social stability and mobility decay, people naturally
start looking around for solutions, and configurations based on language,
geography and culture start looking attractive if the current arrangement is
seen as decreasing security rather than increasing it.
Empires tend to fail when the centers of power become
self-absorbed in political struggles while the prosperity and security of the
imperial lands decline. If we view the EU as a modern-day
iteration of Empire, it's not terribly surprising that the decay of social
stability and mobility are fraying the forces holding the Empire of
the willing together.
Here are two maps of the Holy Roman Empire, the first circa 962
AD, and the second circa 1555. It seems the bonds between Eastern and Western
Europe aren't as strong as the forces of geography, language and shared
security interests binding the polities within the Western and Eastern blocs.
I'm not making any predictions here, just noting that not all
boundaries are lines on a map. Beneath the surface of modern maps, numerous old
fault lines still exist. A political earthquake or two might reveal the
fractures for all to see.
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