In Part 1 of
this article I provided the background regarding the phases of Fourth Turnings
and where we stand nine years into this period of crisis. I will now ponder
what could happen during the remainder of this Fourth Turning.
“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go
horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable
plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume
that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies
that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement
and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something
incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national
innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss
& Howe – The Fourth Turning
The
most important point to comprehend is the death of the existing social order
always occurs during the course of a Fourth Turning.
Thus far, those constituting the Deep State hierarchy have fended off their
demise. They are utilizing every tool at their disposal to retain their wealth,
power and control. As their mass media propaganda machine falters, they have
redoubled their rigging of financial markets to promote a narrative of economic
recovery, while further enriching themselves and their cronies.
It
is clear they have reached the peak of financial manipulation, money printing,
and artificial interest rate suppression. The narrative is faltering. Their
last and final option to retain power is war. As their “everything bubble”
(stocks, bonds, real estate) inevitably implodes, civil and/or global military
conflict will be utilized to distract the populace from their Deep State domestic
disasters.
The
time for compromise is long past. There are no moderates left in the political
spectrum. The mood of the country is clearly trending towards conflict. Trump,
as the grey champion of this Fourth Turning,
has proven to be a lightning rod of hate. He infuriates his political
opponents, the left wing media, many in his own party, foreign leaders,
billionaires and most worrisome to his well-being – the shadowy surveillance
state intel operatives.
His
own FBI and CIA have been subverting his presidency and attempting to initiate
his impeachment or as a last resort – coup. After running a campaign
championing a reduction in foreign military intervention in the Middle East,
reducing commitments to NATO and increasing cooperation with Russia, it appears
Trump has been taken into a room and told the military industrial complex calls
the shots. Trump has clearly made a self-preservation decision to avoid being JFK’d.
The possibility of global catastrophe is
not taken seriously by the vast majority of Americans. It’s been over seventy
years since the last global conflict and most of the people who experienced the
horror are dead. We’ve forgotten the past and are condemned to relive it, just
as we do every eighty or so years. The lack of volatility in financial markets
portends drastic levels of volatility as the perception markets can’t fall has
lured Wall Street 30 something MBAs and the investor class into a sense of
invincibility.
Geopolitical
tensions have been rising dramatically over the last few years, with religious
extremism, oil, petro-dollar, historical rivalries and nationalism driving the
world towards conflict. These extreme economic and geopolitical stresses are
coinciding along the same timeline and will erupt simultaneously, catalyzing
the climactic half of this Fourth Turning.
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could
erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb
to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum
risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has
registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s
willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
With
the House of Saud descending into madness as religious zealots, kings, princes,
and foreign infiltrators vie for control of their depleting oil riches, and
tens of billions in high tech weaponry provided by American arms dealers, a
Middle East conflagration is a certainty. Iran has been winning the proxy wars
in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Saudi Arabia and Israel are determined to stop
Iran’s expansion at any cost.
Mixing
religious extremism, oil riches, gas pipelines, opium, egotistical dictators,
nuclear bombs, hatred and territorial ambitions into the deepening militaristic
global mood change is destined to spark a chain reaction of unintended
consequences and unyielding responses. The next Middle East war will not be a
proxy war. It will be a fight to the death.
You
need a scorecard to figure out the alliances, opponents and wildcards. Iran
appears to be aligned with Iraq, Qatar, Syria, Hezbollah, Yemen, and Russia.
Saudi Arabia appears to be aligned with Israel, UAE, and the United States.
Various factions, who include Turkey, ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Kurds, are
fighting one or more of these parties. In many cases the enemy of my enemy is
my friend applies.
Peace
and compromise are out of the question at this point. It’s just a matter of who
pulls the trigger to kick off the fireworks. It looks like Saudi Arabia is
willing to gamble everything on a final showdown with Iran. Once the shooting
starts and the U.S. and Russia are sucked in, all bets are off on what happens
next. Diplomacy will not be an option.
This
scenario presumes a Korean conflict doesn’t happen first. With reckless actions
on the part of Kim Jung Un and reckless rhetoric from both sides, the odds of a
Korean conflict are the highest since the 1950s. With three carrier groups
sitting off the Korean coastline, just one provocative act or mistake could
unleash a fusillade from both sides, killing hundreds of thousands in a matter
of days. Global treaties, alliances and economic realities are pushing global
powers in unforeseen directions, just as this Fourth Turning enters its most
dangerous phase. Human failings are the constant throughout history. But, human
failings resulted in 50,000 deaths during the American Revolution Crisis. They
could result in hundreds of millions of deaths during this Crisis.
The
U.S. and Europe’s provocative actions with NATO forces surrounding Russia, the
ongoing Ukraine civil war, the Syrian civil war, and false accusations of
rigging the U.S. presidential election have pushed Russia into a closer
alliance with China. Saudi Arabia has also strengthened ties with China, as the
debt financed shale oil boom has lessened U.S. purchases of OPEC oil.
The EU is falling apart, as debt creation
has failed to revive economies, governments are bankrupt, Muslim hordes destroy
their social fabric, and a revolutionary spirit is in the air. Germany, France,
Sweden and most of Europe have signed their own death warrant by allowing their
countries to be invaded by millions of young Muslim men intent on destroying
their way of life. Global disorder is expanding exponentially and is surely
leading towards war.
War
will either be the trigger for the forthcoming financial crash or a direct
result of the forthcoming financial crash. The core elements of this Fourth Turning (debt,
civic decay, global disorder) are going to juxtapose and connect, accelerating
into a chain reaction of chaos, civil uprising, global war, mass casualties,
the fall of empires, and ultimately the destruction of the existing social
order (aka Deep State).
When
Americans see their wealth vaporized for the 3rd time in less
than two decades by the same criminal bankers and corrupt politicians, they
will not forgive, forget and bail them out again. They will seek out the guilty
and make them pay through street justice. The fraudulent Deep State controlled
scheme is beyond redemption and must be destroyed in order for a Constitution
based free market system to be reintroduced. The result could also be
dictatorship or worse. The outcomes will be determined by the actions we take
as citizens.
With
a debt inundated global economy already slowing; panicked central bankers
beginning to take their foot off the accelerator; massively overvalued stock,
bond and real estate markets; consumers in debt up to their eyeballs; stagnant
wages; rising inflation; currency and trade wars heating up; deficits rising
again; and gridlocked legislative bodies, the onset of war in the Middle East
would cause oil prices to skyrocket and trigger the stock market collapse 3.0.
At this point, even the slightest hint
of wage inflation causing interest rates to rise even modestly would prompt a
market meltdown. The perfect storm is headed our way. The triple threats of
debt, civic decay and global disorder cannot be avoided. We can’t defy the
chaos set in motion by the cyclical nature of history. The seasons cannot be
reversed, so we must brace ourselves for the oncoming storms.
“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near.” – Jim Morrison
“No one here gets out alive.” – Jim Morrison
There
are no guarantees or certainties regarding what happens over the remaining
decade or so of this Fourth Turning.
Don’t believe God will exempt our empire from the tragedies that have befallen
past empires. Debasement and total ruin are not inconsequential possibilities.
Hubris, arrogance, decadence, and debt have devastated previous global empires
and are present today in copious quantities as the American Empire enters its
critical threshold of national survival. There are a myriad of internal and
external competing forces which threaten both the status quo and very existence
of our nation.
There will be moments of extreme danger and
severe threats in the coming years. I do not consider the Russian people or the
Chinese people my enemies, but my government will attempt to convince us to go
to war against them, in order to maintain their empire. Human nature has not changed
over the course of history, but the technological advancements in warfare have
placed the ability to obliterate the planet into the hands of weak minded
malevolent men, whose egotism and thirst for power know no bounds. Human flaws
and frailties could endanger the world and its inhabitants. Do you trust the
leadership of your country to do what’s in your best interest?
I do not trust my government. I do not
trust the puppet politician front men for the Deep State. I do not trust the
mega-corporations who dominate our economy. I do not trust central bankers and
their Wall Street owners. I do not trust the fake news corporate media. I do
not trust the military industrial complex. I do not trust the leaders of
organized religion.
I trust my own instincts, reasoning
ability, and critical thinking skills. I trust my immediate family members. I
trust some of my neighbors. I trust more of people I’ve met through my blog
than I’ve met face to face. I trust normal people living normal lives across
this once great country. I trust the people who distrust the people and things
I distrust. As events spiral out of control, we will need to pick and choose
our friends carefully.
If or when the government attempts to
force my three sons into a war on behalf of the vested interests to retain
their wealth and power, I will resist with every ounce of strength in my aging
body. They will not become cannon fodder for the Deep State. We don’t know the
events and path which will drive the remainder of this crisis, but we do know
our choices will matter.
This is no time for apathy and
complacency. For those who grasp generational theory and the cycles of history,
the seemingly unbearable slowness of this Fourth Turning is actually a blessing. The slowness allows
more time to prepare. If you haven’t prepared for the coming saecular winter,
time is growing short. The skies are darkening. Our rendezvous with destiny
awaits.
“Reflect
on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather
warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits
with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to
the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV.
Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible,
and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle.
Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines,
mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments –
all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst
of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would
need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than
yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter.
Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns
that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you
now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
