International Man: Former Libyan leader Muammar Ghaddafi once warned that
“Europe runs the risk of turning black from illegal immigration… it could turn
into Africa.”
Since the
United States and NATO helped overthrow Ghaddafi in 2011, millions of migrants
from Africa and the Middle East have poured into Europe. Many transited from
Libya.
This is all
well known, and all signs point to this trend accelerating. What’s your take on
where this is going?
Doug
Casey: First,
it’s a pity Ghaddafi was taken out. Another disastrous US policy decision. Not
that he was a nice guy—no one running an artificially constructed nation-state
can be. But it was at least a stable situation. Now it’s been replaced by a
bloody and costly war. And it’s complete chaos. Nice work Hillary and Obama. But
let’s talk about Africa at large.
Africa, or at
least migration in and out of Africa, is going to be the epicenter of what’s
happening in the world for the rest of this century.
Africa has gone
from being just an empty space on the map in the 19thcentury, to a
bunch of backwater colonies in the 20th century, to a bunch of
chaotic failed states that most people are only vaguely aware of today. Soon,
however, it will be continuing front-page news. This is because Chinese are
moving to Africa in record numbers while Africans are leaving as fast as they
can.
What we’re
looking at is actually the biggest migration since the barbarian invasions of
the Roman Empire. There will be tens of millions—scores of millions—of Africans
trying to get into Europe. I don’t know how the Europeans will keep them out. I
used to say Europe was going to be a petting zoo for the Chinese, but it may be
more of a squatter’s camp for the Africans.
Africa is the
only part of the world where the population is still growing and growing rapidly.
Africa south of the Sahara was about 6% of the world’s population in the ’50s,
now it’s about 16%. But by the turn of the century, it’s going to be 45%.
Assuming there isn’t some kind of catastrophe. It’s not clear that the Africans
can grow enough food for billions more people.
In fact, if the
West stops supporting the continent with capital and technology, it could be in
for very tough times. Wakanda, the country in “Black Panther”, doesn’t exist.
On the contrary, the continent is full of Gondwana lookalikes. Gondwana is
where most of the action takes place in Speculator, the novel John Hunt and I
wrote. It’s the first of seven in the High Ground series.
Few people
realize how fast the population is growing, and things are changing in Africa.
I ask knowledgeable people what they think the biggest cities in the world will
be at the turn of the next century. They all guess cities in China or India.
But that’s not
true. Eighty years from now, Lagos, Nigeria, will be the largest city in the
world. It’s on track to have a population of more than 90 million. The world’s
second biggest city will be Kinshasa in the Congo with about 80 million people.
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, will be the world’s third biggest city with a
population of roughly 75 million people. It’s quite amazing. When I first
visited Dar in the early ’80s, it was a quiet, exotic seaport with old tramp
steamers in the harbor.
Now all those
people have cell phones, and they’re well aware of the fact that the standard
of living is vastly higher in Europe and every other part of the world than in
Africa. And they’re well aware of the fact that there are welfare benefits of
all types if they can get to Europe.
There are
hundreds of NGOs encouraging Africans to come across the Mediterranean to
Europe. Or for that matter, flying them to the US. Exactly who paid the airfare
and legal and living expenses of the 200,000 penniless Somalis who were
transplanted to Minnesota?
It’s a growing
tidal wave. With the European population diminishing and the African population
growing, you’re going to see Europe basically taken over by Africa in the next
several generations.
International
Man: What
we don’t hear as much about is the massive migration of the Chinese to Africa
that’s taking place.
Doug, you’ve
spent a lot of time in Africa. What’s going on with all this?
Doug
Casey: We’re
seeing a veritable recolonization of Africa. Each time I visit Africa, there
are more Chinese. It doesn’t matter which country; they’re everywhere.
Rich Chinese
are smart to diversify to developed Western countries. Poor Chinese go to
backward countries to try to become wealthy. Africa is the prime recipient.
It’s supposed
to be official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese to Africa in
the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, railroads, ports, mines,
and other infrastructure. It’s partially driven by their Belt and Road
Initiative.
The Chinese are
lending billions to African governments. African governments are, by an order
of magnitude, the most corrupt in the world. And the people who run these
African governments are being well compensated for making deals with the
Chinese. And in effect, selling out their countrymen. All these governments are
full of people trying to be “Mister 10%.”
The worst case
for them is to retire as centimillionaires, to live high off the hog in France
or Switzerland. So, they’ve got nothing to lose. It’s a fairly unstoppable
trend at this point.
Regardless of
how much is stolen, however, I expect the Chinese are going to want the money
they loaned to the Africans back, with interest.
If bribing or
intimidating political leaders proves ineffective in getting it back, it’s
possible that they’ll put soldiers’ boots on the ground. They could send in the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to defend their assets. Or send in assassins to
take out recalcitrant African politicians.
I wouldn’t be
surprised to find the PLA in Africa in the years to come, physically collecting
on those debts. And to make it easier for them, they’re going to be greeted by
lots of Chinese already there.
It will be
interesting to see what happens when a couple hundred million Chinese are
living with a radically expanding native African population.
If the Africans
were unhappy with European colonization, I think they’re going to be very, very
unhappy with the Chinese colonization. The Chinese will not be “inclusive” and
PC like today’s Westerners. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so
in the future.
International
Man: What
about Africa piques the interests of the Chinese?
Doug
Casey: It’s
important to remember that Africa doesn’t produce anything besides raw
materials—and people. There’s close to zero manufacturing—like 1% of the
world’s total—in sub-Saharan Africa. And almost all of that is in South Africa.
The Chinese see
Africans as no more than a cheap and dispensable labor source. That’s at best.
Other than that, they’re viewed as a complete nuisance. Basically an obstacle—a
cost—standing in the way of efficient use of the resources of the continent
itself.
What do the
Chinese people think of Africans? They don’t hold them in high regard. Of
course, you’ve got to remember that China has viewed itself as the center of
the world since Day One. They see all non-Han people as barbarians, as
inferiors.
That was
absolutely true when the British sent an ambassador, Macartney, to open
relations at the very end of the 18th century. He was treated
with borderline contempt—pretty much the way Europeans and Americans have
treated primitive peoples since the days of Columbus.
It’s actually
the normal human attitude when an advanced culture encounters a backward
culture. The Chinese see their culture as superior to even that of the West and
believe—probably correctly—that they’ll soon be economically and
technologically superior as well.
International
Man: If
China comes to dominate Africa and its resources, what does that mean for its
rivalry with the US?
Doug
Casey: Well,
the US government is basically bankrupt at this point. The only thing that the
US exports in quantity is US dollars. And sometime soon, the Chinese, the
Russians, the Malaysians, the Iranians, and the Indians, among others, won’t need
or want US dollars. They don’t want to accept them now, because it’s an asset
of their adversary or even their enemy. They’re unhappy about having to settle
accounts in dollars that all have to clear through New York.
So, they’re
going to come up with their own alternative. And I suspect they’re going to use
gold. Why? Because they don’t trust each other’s paper currencies. And why
should they?
How’s the
United States going to react to that?
It’s going to
be left out in the cold. No one needs or wants their dollars—they want and need
real goods, not the paper obligations of a hostile, unpredictable, bankrupt
government. Also, the US isn’t in a position to export people, except for some
unwelcome soldiers. The Chinese are in an excellent position to export a couple
hundred million spare people. The bottom line is that the Chinese are going to
take over Africa financially, and they’re going to take it over demographically
as well.
International
Man: What
kind of speculative opportunities do you think this trend will create?
Doug
Casey: Well,
I’ve often said that if I were 30 years old today and wanted to make my
fortune, I would definitely go to Africa. The reason for that is that you don’t
want to be on a level playing field. You want to be on a field tilted in your
direction as much as possible.
If a young
Westerner goes to Africa and travels around, he’ll find it quite easy to move
with the top levels of society. Because he’s unusual. And people are interested
in things that are unusual. The fact that you’re a Westerner means that you’ve
probably associated with people who have much more money, much more
sophistication, much more knowledge than any of the locals do. You have unique
advantages in Africa. If a young Westerner stays at home, however, he has no
marginal advantages.
It’s very hard
to vault yourself to the top in a Western society, because there are tens of
millions of people just like you with the same education, background, and
abilities.
But in Africa,
you’re automatically on the top of the heap. And you’re noticeable. So, it’s a
great place to go for entrepreneurial reasons.
At the same
time, I don’t think Africa is a place to invest unless you’ve got the PLA
standing behind you. It’s a place for a hit-and-run type of entrepreneurialism.
Or perhaps political entrepreneurialism.
As corrupt as
Africa is, the way almost everybody makes money is by getting hooked up with
the government. And that’s possible to do. You could go to any number of African
countries, hang out there for a month, and be sitting down with the president.
That’s not
going to happen if you try to do the same thing in North America or Europe or
for that matter even South America or Asia.
International
Man: If
you were 30 years old and looking for opportunity in Africa, what countries in
particular would you be most interested in?
Doug
Casey: Well,
I wouldn’t jump off the deep end at first. Don’t go to a place like Nigeria to
start. Nor is South Africa ideal for this purpose. It’s too developed, and
there are too many people of European descent—although that’s changing. White
people are making what the Rhodesians called “the chicken run” and for the same
reasons. There’s too much anti-white racism in South Africa, and besides, the
economy is going into reverse.
I would go to a
country like Namibia, which is large, empty, and pretty mellow. I would
definitely look at Mozambique. Or Mauritania—a huge country, where nobody goes.
São Tomé and Príncipe, an obscure island country off the west coast. If you’re
adventurous, the Central African Republic, which is probably the most backward
country in Africa.
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